Report: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Possible 2012 Pres. Candidate, Not Seeking Re-Election In 2010
The local CBS channel in Minneapolis reports that Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a possible 2012 GOP presidential candidate, will announce today that he is not running for a third term as governor in 2010.
Pawlenty was narrowly re-elected in the big Democratic year of 2006 -- and in what is usually a Democratic state, though it has a habit of electing GOP governors -- and had reportedly made the list of finalists to be John McCain's running mate.
Keep a close lookout for Pawlenty's actions in a few key areas: His continuing budget battle with the heavily-Democratic legislature, where he's taken a strong anti-tax line; potential travel around the country for GOP candidates; and of course, how he handles the upcoming battles over whether or not Al Franken gets an election certificate to the U.S. Senate.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Not a good sign for Franken. Pawlenty doesn't have to answer to MN voters anymore, he only has to pander to national Republicans. That certificate ain't coming anytime soon.
June 2, 2009 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not completely sure if this is a bad thing for Franken or not (and this is me as a Franken voter). Let's say that the MNSC rejects the lower court's ruling and re-affirms Franken the winner; the next logical step for Coleman will be an instant appeal to the SCOTUS. In the interim, if Pawlenty doesn't sign the certificate it really could come back to haunt him in the 2012 general: "Tim Pawlenty put party politics over the good of his own state". All of this is assuming that the SCOTUS doesn't issue an injunction against the state from issuing, etc. But still, I don't think that Pawlenty is so myopic as to convince himself that non-signing bears no consequence.
June 2, 2009 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
ugh: *the MNSC upholds the lower court's ruling...
June 2, 2009 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
counter,
if it does go to the SCOTUS it will be interesting to see how Scalia, Thomas, and Kennedy vote.
With O'Connor and Rhenquist this gang gave us President George W Bush.
June 2, 2009 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly right.
The campaign ads make themselves these days.
June 2, 2009 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but putting party politics ahead of most everything is exactly what will advance you in the GOP primaries.
June 2, 2009 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true. And that's the point here. Pawlenty was barely acceptable to a blue state in 2006 and was probably even less so before this mess started. Even if he signs Franken's Certificate of Election, throws Franken a champagne and caviar reception and charters a plane to fly him to Washington, that's not going to change.
But if Pawlenty stonewalls and stands up to those evil libruhl commie activist judges on the Minnesota Supreme Court and people from ACORN who deposed that great hero of Real America Norm Coleman, especially when he's already declared he's not running for re-election in 2010, he scored many brownie points with the party's base. And as a more moderate and sensible John McCain found out in 2000, if you don't placate the base, you can forget about getting through the primaries, which you have to do before you can even think about the general election.
June 2, 2009 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even worse: "Tim Pawlenty put party politics over the good of his own state and then ran away instead of letting voters judge his actions."
June 2, 2009 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
There goes any chance that Franken will get seated this year!
June 2, 2009 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I disagree...This is a good sign for Franken. Pawlenty must know he can't run to the hard right and win. Just look at McCain's run. He will need to be more pragmatic and appear to be more of a centerist, which he actually is. Denying Franken at this point would look ridiculous to most of America. I am betting that the moderates take the party back by the time the 2012 elections come along. I think that will be his calculation too.
June 2, 2009 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so. The state requires he certify Franken. He will be in violation of state law.
Coleman can still take this to the SC and if he wins he become senator.
I see an injunction compelling him to sign.
June 2, 2009 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coleman had his choice of taking it to the State Court, or the Supreme Court. But seldome does SCOTUS allow you to do both! Bush v Gore was one of the rare cases they allowed it. I don't see them allowing Coleman to venue shop!
June 2, 2009 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why any of them would be jostling for 2012... It would seem to me that whoever wins the GOP nomination in 2012 is facing, the K2 of uphill battles... If that individual gets trounced in 2012, it would seem to put them in the weakest possible position to run in 2016 (a loser in the eyes of their party and to the general electorate). Meanwhile, on the good guys' side of the slate, you would have 4+4 years of Obama/Biden with a pretty low likelihood that Biden would be on the ballot in 2016. Not that I would accuse any of their leaders of being particularly smart, but the 2012 nomination would seem to be the one that no Republican who actually wants to get elected would seek.
June 2, 2009 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the recession comes roaring back - read Atrios about the up-coming problems with massive numbers of Alt-A mortgages that are not being currently addressed - then Obama may not be a lock for reelection. That's just one risk that Obama is taking. There are many others, and he isn't going to win all of them. Consider what could happen to Obama if GM doesn't begin to recover quickly.
It also seems likely to me that the very absence of national Republican leadership means that current outsiders (to the national scene) have the best opportunity to get in of any time in recent years. This would also very probably be something that could be started on the cheap because there are no major powers with money who could step in and squash up-coming new potential leaders.
Given Pawlenty's specific situation I am sure there are a lot of other reasons. All he needs right now is his existing reputation in the Republican party and some seed money. His financing needs right now are probably lower than will every be possible again. He takes a shot at it and hopes he somehow takes fire, in which case as an early front runner with a new face he has a real shot at the nomination. But if the risks he is taking do connect, he will become the early leader and the process could be essentially self-funding (to him personally.) Stranger things have happened.
It's like buying a lottery ticket. No matter how unlikely the chances of winning are, if you don't buy a ticket you are guaranteed NOT to win.
Those are potential reasons just right off the top of my head.
June 2, 2009 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Basically anything can happen but the minute a president is elected he becomes the odds on favorite for a second term no matter what. I mean look how bad Bush screwed up and he still made it into a second term.
It's gonna take a lot better than Pawlenty to upset the apple cart.
Plus somewhere north of 500 million dollars which at this juncture looks like an impossibility for the GOP.
June 2, 2009 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The same could have been said of any Democrats thinking about running for President back in 1991. If a year is a lifetime in politics, 2 years is an eternity.
June 2, 2009 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
H.W. Bush was never very popular. An Obama defeat in 2012 would be an amazing reversal.
June 2, 2009 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be fun to see this asshole arrested for contempt after defying a MinnSC order to sign the certificate. I don't know if that's a possible scenario, but I'm hoping.
June 2, 2009 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is excellent for Franken. In the 2010 climate, Republicans still believe they have to pander to the right wingnuts of the party. For 2012, the ONLY HOPE Republicans have is with moderate candidates. Pawlenty is free to behave moderately without retribution now, and can then run as a moderate in his own party in 2012.
June 2, 2009 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
People are making too much of this "election certificate" issue. If the SC says Franken won the election, that's it. The certificate issues and and the Governor signs it. He isn't going to defy the law.
June 2, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Besides, Constitutionally the Senate itself is the final "decider" about who its members are. Reid is on record as saying that what the MN SC says determines the race between the two.
Of course, the Republicans would go ballistic....
June 2, 2009 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's the Dems who will probably go ballistic if Pawlenty refuses to certify. The Senate will most likely seat Franken anyway, but there will be a full-court press to make it clear to everyone exactly why Pawlenty didn't certify.
If it were left up to Harry Reid, I don't think that would happen, but Harry's going to get pressured from every corner to seat Franken. If he even hesitates, I can pretty well guarantee his phone lines are going to be jammed.
Seat Franken Now! (I'm just getting warmed up for the chant)
June 2, 2009 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go ballistic and do what? OBSTRUCT!
June 2, 2009 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
What hell kind of dysfunctional political system would leave a sitting governor to feel that opposing democracy and siding with partisans against the people who elected you and who you currently represent is probably a good move to set up a Presidential bid?
Have things really gone so far that openly doing something that is wrong on the merits is a good move because the motives are so transparently base? Really? Even if it means he has to run as a wildly unpopular just-sitting governor? Pissing off your home state is bad optics, no?
June 2, 2009 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "amiable prick" strikes again.
I kust hope that the MNSC ruling includes an extremely specific order to issue the election certificate without delay.
June 2, 2009 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
heh...I've always referred to him as our "Concern Troll" Governor.
June 2, 2009 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that all Harry Reid needed to grow a pair was some finality to the MN state appeals process. He boxed himself in with his ultimately unsuccessful, too cute by half strategy in trying to deny Burris the IL seat by insisting that he have a signed election certificate. Very short-sighted and completely foreseeable that it would have consequences re setting a bad precedent for the MN seat.
Anyway, as many have speculated, and as Franken has specifically requested, the MN SC could issue an order affirming Franken's win and specifically order Pawlenty and Ritchie to sign an election certificate. Even if Pawlenty refuses at that point, Reid would almost certainly have the political cover to provisionally seat Franken, pending the outcome of any further federal appeal.
I would be very surprised that in the event that the R's tried to filibuster, if some of the more moderate R's didn't peel away and allow Franken's provisional seating. Could be wron, but don't see Snowe, Collins, and even Voinovich and Lugar, voting in favor of a filibuster. But based on recent statements, would probably have to make sure Arlen remembered what party he was a member of...
June 2, 2009 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
See, there's the problem. Reid isn't so much spineless as he is shortsighted. He's a tactician where a strategist is called for.
Oh the other hand, this may well be the end of the run for Tiny (Governor) Tim. (Let's knock on the door, and see if he's in!) How well do private citizens normally do as candidates for President? How well do they keep their names in the public eye?
I for one will be glad to see Timmay! go.
June 2, 2009 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Governor Polenta, but your pretensions are beyond your means. Blandness does not equal centrism, comprende?
June 2, 2009 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blandness does not equal centrism
Good one!
June 2, 2009 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't think this makes it more likely for Pawlenty to delay signing Franken's election cert. If he did he would be enormously unpopular in Minnesota, and Presidential candidates that are unpopular in their own states rarely get far...
June 2, 2009 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he's worried about winning Minnesota. I think he's counting on a lot of financial support in return for refusing to certify.
Romney had a 34% approval rating at the end of his term as Governor of Massachusetts.
June 2, 2009 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But a Presidential candidate unpopular in their home state is not likely to draw the kind of money he would need. If he can't convince Minnesotans he could be President, what chance does he have in the rest of the country...
He would be better served by signing it and putting it behind him
June 2, 2009 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
And he didn't win the nomination.
June 2, 2009 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney didn't 1) raise all that much $$$ (he had/has a big wallet of his own); 2) do so well as a presidential contender. He's still looking for work.
June 2, 2009 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
The point is not whether or not Romney got the nomination. Romney's standing in Massachusetts had no bearing on his popularity anywhere else. And as unpopular as he was, he still won the MA primary. So, I guess it depends on what is meant by "rarely get far." I would think that ending up as one of the top three contenders for a presidential nomination would be considered getting far.
Nobody else in the country really knows what a schmuck Pawlenty is. And, whether or not he signs the certificate, they're probably not going to remember when he's trying to win the nomination. If anything, the Republican voters would probably reward him for trying to block Franken. Not certifying Franken hurts him at home, but it helps him pull in some big bucks at the national level.
June 2, 2009 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does Pawlenty have a business or field to go back to, or is politics it?
I ask because many of these guys get bought off as a way to get them to commit a career-ending act and then step down (Tauzin's Schedule D for Big PHaRMA comes to mind.)
It will be interesting to see where Pawlenty goes once his term is up, and where he CAN go will inform what he's going to do in the case of a Franken win at the MNSC.
Every one-vote margin that goes the Dems way in the Senate, once Franken is seated, will be laid at Pawlenty's doorstep by the ReagaNazis that run the GOP, and he'll get nowhere in a 2012 cycle. Maybe in the 2016 cycle, with Franken two years past his first re-election, Pawlenty'll have a shot.
But where's he going to get income between the end of his current term and then?
June 2, 2009 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's a lawyer. He can get a gig at a law firm or as a consultant, I am sure.
June 2, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is Exhibit A in the case against Pawlenty:
http://www.35wbridgecollapse.net/
Pawlenty is the perfect hero for people like Grover Norquist because he despises government of any kind. He's cheap. If he could reduce government services and taxes to zero, he would. Unfortunately, we now know what happens when bridges don't get proper maintenance and inspections.
June 2, 2009 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was funny how Pawlenty said he'd consider raising gasoline taxes within a couple of days after the bridge collapse, and then suddenly turned around and said 'now way.' There was a call from Norquist and/or Rove in between, I'm sure.
June 2, 2009 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could remember which NPR program I heard this on yesterday, but this was the gist: If Franken prevails in court, the U.S. Senate can seat him and he can act as a U.S. Senator until as the case continues through federal court.
June 2, 2009 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and the commentator from the court also felt strongly that Franken would prevail in these current proceedings.
June 2, 2009 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard Franken's lawyer on the Bill Press show this morning and he said one of the issues before the court was to express an immediate seating of Franken, so that Pawlenty's pro forma certificate would not be capable of holding up the process. I don't believe he would hold it up any further anyway, if he wants to run for President.
June 2, 2009 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pawlenty is retiring to run for preesident.
If he denies his state a second senator it will be bad news for him and Minnesota.
June 2, 2009 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink