Poll: GOPer McDonnell Has Big Lead In Virginia Gubernatorial Race
A new SurveyUSA poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race gives Republican former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell a big lead over his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Creigh Deeds:
The numbers: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 40%. If McDonnell were to win this, he would pick this swing state up for the GOP, away from term-limited Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
The previous SurveyUSA poll, which was conducted right before the Democratic primary in early June, gave McDonnell a narrower lead of 47%-43%, which has apparently expanded in the nearly two months since then.
From the pollster's analysis: "14% of those who say they voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election say they will vote for Republican McDonnell in the gubernatorial contest; 9% of John McCain voters say they will cross over and vote for Democrat Deeds."
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
It sure looks like they over-polled the Repubs so I'd take this poll result with a large grain of salt. Obama won Virginia by 6 percent. And there are more Democrats than Republicans percentage-wise. That is not what this poll base shows. So it skewed the result. I suspect the next round of polls will show it still close if they use the right percentage of voters.
July 29, 2009 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Creigh Deeds is NOT airing any campaign commercials. Bob McDonnell is airing biographical ads, showing pictures of himself and family over the years. Deeds is LOSING because he is running a bad campaign. I have seen absolutely ZERO ads from Deeds AND McDonnell is airing all these ads praising himself.
July 29, 2009 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hoping this is part of a strategy to let McDonnell play himself out. After all, no one's really paying that much attention right now. On the other hand, even in Charlottesville I've seen several more McDonnell yard signs than Deeds ones.
If he is indeed saving up his money, then hopefully he'll be able to outspend McDonnell in the stretch. I.e., he's drafting like Armstrong does in the Tour de France. Oh, wait…
July 29, 2009 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm seeing (or rather NOT seeing) pretty much the same here in the Richmond area. I haven't seen any TV ads for either candidate, though I have seen some ads, apparently from an independent party (Common Sense Virginia, I think) knocking McDonnell for opposing $125 million in stimulus funds to extend unemployment benefits.
The only yard signs I've seen are for McDonnell. That was true even during primary season, even though Republicans did not hold a primary, and McDonnell was unopposed.
Creigh Deeds is not even on the radar around here. McDonnell has a lot more name recognition by virtue of being the sitting Attorney General, so Deeds is already starting out from behind. (Yes, Deeds was the losing candidate--narrowly--in that Attorney General election, but how many people remember who the losing candidate was?) He needs to step it up, and it would be really nice if Tim Kaine would start spending a little more time in the state to campaign for him. (The ever-helpful [NOT!] Doug Wilder has declined to endorse Deeds. Doug Wilder is the Joe Lieberman of Virginia.
Jim Webb could be very helpful, too -- he carries a lot of clout in the southwest part of the state, and even though a Democrat is not likely to win those counties, just damping down the Repubican total there would be a Good Thing.
This state cannot afford to revert back to Republican governorship, and we especially can't afford to be saddled with this one. He's a Regent University grad, a staunch opponent of abortion rights (he opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest), opposes expansions of public education (more classrooms, more teachers, expanded preschool education) yet favors vouchers for private and religious schools, has strong ties to the religious right, big pharma, and the health insurance industry, and even WaPo worried that he was too dogmatically conservative when he was running for A-G.
I don't want that guy for my next governor!
July 29, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only poll that counts is the one on election day. This doesn't scare me in the least.
July 29, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deeds was way behind in the primary and finished very strong. It looks like he may be following the same strategy again but whether it works this time remaisn to be seen.
July 29, 2009 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
dswx's first comment here needs emphasis and elaboration. Not only does SUSA have a 38R-32D sample this time, but they peg ideological self-identification at 42C-41M-13L, and respondents said they voted 52-43 for McCain last year.
Now, this doesn't "prove" SUSA is "wrong." This November's Virginia electorate undoubtedly will be whiter, more conservative, and probably more Republican than last November's Virginia electorate. Indeed, the poll's racial composition of 76% white and only 17% black might end up being just right.
But the party ID, ideological self-identification, and presidential vote breakdowns are hard to take seriously, and for those reasons I would say this poll probably shows a McDonnell lead that is double or more what it would be today in reality.
July 29, 2009 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Now, this doesn't "prove" SUSA is "wrong.""
No - it proves that the polling sample was widely skewed REPUBLICAN.
July 29, 2009 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have difficulty giving this poll credibility. To achieve that big of swing in the time period there always has to be an significant event of some sort to make that happen. In NVA which will be at least 30% of the November electorate there has been no such event to move it off the strong Democratic showing exhibited in the the last two gubernatorial races plus the 2006 and 2008 elections. I am not aware either of any gamechangers in Richmond or the Tidewater. The sample skew noted above may be the answer. This poll just does not smell right.
July 29, 2009 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have looked again at the SUSA poll, and it is even less credible. It has McDonnell getting 54% in NVA. This is one of the most politically sophisticated electorates in the US. There is no way a Republican accolyte of Pat Robertson gets 54% in NVA.
July 29, 2009 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I get ths impression that our side is suffering a bad case of summer doldrums, which also helps explain Obama's declining numbers. And people are paying zero attention to the governor's race. I think things will look quite a bit different in October, but I agree that Deeds has to start picking things up pretty soon.
July 29, 2009 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is way too early to be looking at polls. If McDonnell is running ads now, by election day he will have annoyed so may people, that they will vote for Deeds.
It is too early to be running ads. I would think people are still recovering from last year. They need a break from political campaigns.
July 30, 2009 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink