Poll: Specter In Dead Heat With Toomey For 2010 General Election
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) in a dead heat with Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey, whose challenge against Specter in the Republican primary triggered Specter's party switch a few months ago.
The numbers: Specter 45%, Toomey 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error. Back in May, shortly after he'd become a Democrat, Specter had a much better lead of 46%-37%. When Toomey is pitted against Specter's Dem primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak, Toomey has a lead of 39%-35%, with high undecideds because both candidates lack heavy name recognition.
In the Democratic primary, Specter currently leads Sestak by 55%-23%.
Only 40% of voters say Specter deserves another term, to 49% who say he does not. From the pollster's analysis: "Voters see Sen. Specter much less favorably than they once did and are net negative about giving him a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. Independent voters have shifted narrowly to Toomey 46 - 42 percent and say 53 - 35 percent that Specter does not deserve reelection."
| TOPICS: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, PA-SEN, Pat Toomey, Senate '10
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Maybe the Left's demonization campaign is paying off?
Hey, if we just hate Spector enough, maybe we can push Toomey over the top!
We need to show the GOP once and for all -- you dare to switch to our party, we will punish you!
July 22, 2009 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
IT'S THE LEFT'S FAULT!!!!!!!!!!!
July 22, 2009 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
as fear of a spectre-less Senate grips the nation's vital center, who knew so many independents listen to the LEFT'S comments?
Apparently the Shadow (and the Frog).
July 22, 2009 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where do I contribute to the committee to re-elect Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman and the other heroes of the Vital Center?
July 22, 2009 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most voters in PA don't care about left or right. It's about trust. You don't need an in depth knowledge of politics to recognize Specter's party switch as self-serving. The switch has just helped them recognize that Specter is in DC for Specter, not for them.
July 22, 2009 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
God forbid that Pennsylvanians be given any credit for intelligence, such as that which sees through Specter's questionably sincere and altrusitic embrace of the Democratic platform. If Specter's going down, it's because most people can see a self-serving schmuck for what he is.
July 22, 2009 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I don't understand the people of Pa.
What exactly do these "ultra conservatives", add to life?
Denial of science?
Intrusion into your home and bedroom?
Massive tax breaks for the rich and corporations so your poor kids need to join the military to work?
Its hard to blame the rat politicians for who they are when the country is still held hostage by the "average" person.
July 22, 2009 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're just- rightly- sick of Specter. Once Sestak wins the nomination and people get to know him, he'll trounce Toomey.
July 22, 2009 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The poll's sample size, 511 Republicans and 512 Democrats, isn't exactly representative of Pennsylvania.
July 22, 2009 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quinnipiac polls suck ass. There are a handful of pollsters that matter:
Gallup National (without USA Today's likely voter model)
SUSA
and Rasmussen within two months of the election
July 22, 2009 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, there were no independents in the poll either.
July 22, 2009 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
They are really hurting economically in that part of the country. I have no doubt that Obama will take that state handily in 2012, even if PA hasn't seen much of a recovery, because the Republicans' bright idea was simply to let everything go smash, liquidate the auto companies and the banks, and Obama is certain to emphasize how reckless their plans were.
To say the least, I have less faith in Specter's ability to make that case.
July 22, 2009 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is way to early to believe any of these polls. If these polls were accurate this far in adva nce of a election, HRC would be POTUS.
We do not know what will happen one year from now. Events occur. We all need to wait.
July 22, 2009 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's important to elaborate on Jsocks' comment about the Q-poll's sampling. Their 512D-511R-150I breakdown isn't close to accurate.
The 2008 exit poll showed 44D-37R-18I. The 2006 Senate race (Casey over Santorum) exit poll showed 43D-38R-19I. And the 2004 exit poll showed 41D-39R-20I. So there's been linear movement toward Democrats.
And PA voter registration both last November and just a month ago is 51D-37R-12Indy/3rd-party.
So the Q-poll is expecting a 14-point Democratic voter registration advantage to translate to an evenly-divided electorate.
That's just wrong.
The Q-poll results are wrong, Specter still has a healthy lead, and Sestak, too, would beat Toomey today albeit probably by a narrower margin than would Specter.
July 22, 2009 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with many of you that it is too early, that the make-up of the poll does not necessarily represent Penn as a whole, and that once the general starts things will look alot different. However we have 24 hour news cycle seemingly starved for (the latest and greatest) information.
All the recent polling that has been covered in media is what i would call less than stellar from a "framing" (ala David Gregory) perspective. Of course this is not surprising if you pay attention to the 24-hour news cycle/beast. I mean with all the health-care is stalling/delaying/too costly/ government run/socialist mixed in with the entertainment of DeMint/Jeff Sessions/Boehnor/Cantor, as well as the left over from last weeks MJ Died/Sotomayor/Wise Latina/CIA Lied etc you would think this country is just totally fucked. I mean hell I know more GOP leaders, of course that is an oxymoron, than Dem leaders and I know more about Health-care delay/comments from lobbyist in editiorials/ and Congress reluctance to take up any meaningful legislation than how to solve any of the issues facing this country. I know the MSM is not perfect but when FOX news decides not to cover the President, and not for the first time, you get an idea of the disdain the Corporate community has for citizens civic involvement. The much of the MSM has failed to engage and enlighten its viewers except to sad fact that it pays to entertain and it is too costly to educate and inform.
July 22, 2009 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reconsidered in terms of actual PA demographics, the results would look like this:
Specter - 46%, Toomey 43%
Toomey - 39%, Sestak 37%
In both cases, however, most of the undecideds are Democrats and Independents.
July 22, 2009 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Specifically, Specter vs. Toomey:
10% of Dems undecided
12% of Indies undecided
7% of Reps undecided
And Sestak vs. Toomey:
24% of Dems undecided
31% of Indies undecided
17% of Reps undecided
July 22, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink