Polling Analysis: Independents Leaning Republican -- Because Republican Ranks Are Shrinking
A new analysis from Public Policy Polling (D) finds that independents are leaning more conservative, which at first glance doesn't look like good news for Democrats -- but a close examination shows that the trends also don't contain too much reason for Republican optimism, either.
"Part of that has to do with the decreasing number of Americans identifying as Republicans in recent years," writes PPP communications director Tom Jensen. "While they're eschewing the party's label, they're still conservative and more often than not voting for the party's candidates."
So to some degree, this conservative lean from the independent group comes from the continuing shrinkage in Republicans -- a shift in demographics that at the end of the day wouldn't actually have too much of a real effect on voting patterns.
Still, Jensen sees some potential for the GOP here, comparing his figures to Democratic performance among independents in 2008, which was significantly stronger than the current state of things: "This early success the GOP is having with them looking toward 2012 does seem to indicate a certain level of support for more divided government moving forward, as well as some dissatisfaction with the President and Democrats in Congress."
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Brian
All the Democrats need to do is to maintain substantial number of independents, since the Democratic ranks have expanded.
July 21, 2009 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point Micheline! And we need to work to grow the hispanic vote.
July 21, 2009 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Harry Reid needs help growing a spine!
July 22, 2009 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, not even Republicans want to be associated with the Republican Party anymore. That's what you call epic fail.
July 21, 2009 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've met them. I play cards with some of them. They frankly admit that, though they can't stand the thought of registering as Democrats they're just too ashamed and embarrassed by the party by to call themselves themselves "Republicans" any longer. They openly say the party's dead and Limbaugh killed it.
July 21, 2009 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Through most of my voting life of nearly 40 years, living in 2 states and several communities, I registered to vote as 'unaffiliated' aka 'independent'. It was really little more than a choice of 'none of the above'. In spite of that registration, I almost always voted Democratic for state and federal offices. Several elections ago, with all the partisan nastiness increasing, I decided to make it official, and make my registration the same as my voting preference - Democrat. My point is that simply because a voter has chosen to register 'independent' as I had for so many years, doesn't mean they don't have strong leanings when they make their voting choices. It just means they are maintaining a sense of privacy about their political positions as far as the government is concerned. Are groups of 'independents' leaning Republican? They probably are, and most likely voted that way for years, just as Democrats have in their own direction. The only questions for campaigns are how does that slant break election after election, and how do we reach them?
July 22, 2009 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink