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Rasmussen Poll: Obama And Romney Would Be Tied In 2012 Matchup
In a hypothetical 2012 general election contest between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and President Obama, the vote would be tied at 45 percent each, according to a new Rasmussen phone survey.
Rasmussen tends to skew Republican. Conversely, a May survey by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling had Romney losing to Obama, 35 to 53 percent.
Romney ended his last bid for the presidency in February 2008.
The new Rasmussen poll also said that in a 2012 matchup against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Obama would win 48 percent to 42 percent.
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Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
If Rasmussen says that, it means Obama would win by 10 points.
July 20, 2009 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
AT LEAST
July 20, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This just in, 2020 match up to be won by Jonah Goldberg!!
July 21, 2009 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
and how is this important or relevant to anything of any meaning???
TPM..assign your resources to critical matters, please
July 20, 2009 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me a pollster with a partisan skew can be still useful so long as the skew is consistent. Rassmussen seems pretty consistent. So the information we're getting here is really, Romney only ties Obama even among the Rassmussen polling base. That seems to me like an interesting and useful piece of information.
July 20, 2009 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not when the next election is still three and half years away.
July 20, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I assume is that in this context the poll doesn't really tell us so much about any upcoming election as it tells us whether or not people are having second thoughts about the election we just held-- and it does this in a way that separates out the "do you regret Obama winning" notion from any given person's dislike of McCain/Palin. Maybe we can think of it like a different sort of favorability rating?
July 20, 2009 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not when the next election is still three and half years away.
July 20, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a sad day today seeing TPM kowtowing to the Republican Rasmussen poll. And yes, just reporting it is kowtowing. Rasmussen is a right-wing pollster who famously skews his polls to the Republicans. All one has to do to see how out of the mainstream his polls are is to go to pollster.com and compare his poll with the others on Obama's favorable and approval ratings. He is far out of the consensus of other polls. One of the first thing to look at with any poll is does it make sense in context? The answer for Rasmussen is clear no. But that's not what the Repubs care about. They just want to spread words of doubt to make it *seem* that Obama is worse than reality. And here is TPM doing the Repubs work for them by simply regurgitating Rasmussen's poll. I expect this from Politico and the AP but this is truly a *very* low point for TPM.
July 20, 2009 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
what a terribly stupid thing to say.
and you might have noticed that rachel said the exact same thing in her reporting.
July 20, 2009 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"what a terribly stupid thing to say."
No, *your* reply was a terribly stupid and thoughtless. Without question. It is not rocket science to understand that the Repubs want *exactly* the type of thing that is happening here. That is, reporting the one outlier poll that makes it sound as if Obama's support as is low as Rasmussen claims. It is exactly as Fox News would report it. Apparently you like information fed to you directly from the RNC, without bothering to think about it. How sad and pathetic. Try some critical analysis for a change. For example, take a look at Obama's approval and favorable rating polls at pollster.com and see how far out of the mainstream of other polls Rasmussen is. But do you see mention of say, the Gallop poll (and others) approval rating here (closer to 60 percent as opposed to Rasmussen's 51)? No, it's Rasmussen that gets the headline.
BTW, the sentence reference to the May poll was not there earlier, sport. As others here have noted by inference.
July 20, 2009 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
try this for critical analysis: you are comparing a 2012 matchup poll to an obama approval rating poll. apples. oranges.
also this: while you (inexplicably) accuse me of wanting "information fed to (me) directly from the RNC, without bothering to think about it," what you are in fact suggesting is that TPM instead "feed" its readers only information that you consider favorable to obama and/or dems, (apparently) out of fear that its readers are incapable of being able to "think about it".
tpm likes to imagine that its readers are smart enough to handle reading about outlier polls. apparently you think everyone is too stupid to read about a rasmussen poll without taking rasmussen's conclusions as gospel.
TPM would not be improved by doing as you suggest and refusing to report on any outlier polling that skews republican just because it skews republican.
July 21, 2009 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wait a minute.
The man couldn't even come close to getting the Republican nomination... in primaries made up of Republican partisans... and yet we're supposed to believe that when you throw it open to the rest of the (more left-leaning) voting public, he can best a President with a 60% (or whatever) approval rating?
Yeah, that doesn't smell fishy or anything.
July 20, 2009 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Rassmussen's consistent inaccuracy aside-- Remember, the Republican primary electorate isn't representative of the voting public. In fact at this point the things that are making Romney unpopular among Republicans are probably the things that are making him popular with the voting public, and vice versa.
July 20, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's approval rating is something like 36% in Ras land.
July 20, 2009 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The question Rasmussen asked, "If your choice for president is based on his or her haircut as your only criteria which would you choose?"
200,000 hung up, 2000 voted, then went back to watching Dancing with the Stars.
July 20, 2009 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude...you need to stop reading so many books trying to get all educated and stuff....Dancing with the Stars has not started it's new season, yet....more than likely they went back to watching "Dance Your A** Off".
July 20, 2009 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
*Hangs head* I have failed.
July 20, 2009 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this is good news for John McCain, eh?
I'm with Steve on this one. Lop off the automatic 5 points favoring any generic candidate, and you have Obama up by 10.
But who gives a crap, anyway? It's July 2009.
July 20, 2009 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARgh. That should read "Lop off the automatic 5 points favoring any generic Republican candidate...."
July 20, 2009 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rachel seems to be part of the wired for Republican crowd.
July 20, 2009 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait I know it. Rachel is really Matt Drudge! hah
July 20, 2009 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
MITTMENTUM!
July 20, 2009 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason Romney is getting higher numbers is because he is hiding out. As soon as he starts doing interviews regularly his numbers will go down because people will recognize him as a silver-spoon Ronald Reagan wannabe and probably germaphobic when it comes to the general public. Same for Palin, if she wants to run for president she will have to do interviews with somebody besides Hannity. But I do look forward to the next three-and-half years of these two trying to undo each other for the nomination. I'm guessing Palin will run over Romney and anybody else who gets in her way of the nomination.
July 20, 2009 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
July 20, 2009 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The new Rasmussen poll also said that in a 2012 matchup against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Obama would win 48 percent to 42 percent."
Whoa! You were reeling me in there until you dropped that punch line on me...
July 20, 2009 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Six months into Obama's first term and these people are already looking forward to the next Presidential election. That ought to tell us something.
P.S.
It looks like the corporate Republican establishment has forgotten that Mitt Romney is a Mormon, a pro gay-rights, pro-abortion Mormon to be specific. I know he now says he is not those things, but he was those things for his entire tenure in office. This guy can not, that is, "CAN" not (as opposed to "WILL" not) win the Republican nomination. As far as the Republican nomination is concerned he is unelectable.
If anyone votes on race and religion and plays identity politics, it is the Republican primary voters. This guy will never get the Republican base. If he does cheat his way to the nomination, he won't carry the base Republican states in the south. Well, against Obama he may be able to carry them, but that is only because Obama is black. Mitt could not win them against anyone else.
July 20, 2009 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just one problem, Romney can't win nomination. Rachel omitted this little bit;
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) -- A new Rasmussen poll finds pro-abortion President Barack Obama would be tied with former Gov. Mitt Romney if a potential presidential election matchup. The survey also shows Gov. Sarah Palin just six percentage points behind Obama in a possible 2012 presidential race preview.
July 20, 2009 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen skews a bit rightward, and Obama is being dragged slightly down by the limpdick Democratic Congress.
I'd say that sums it up. Oh, and the election is more than 3 years away.
Move on to something substantive. Like Mark Sanford's emotional life.
July 20, 2009 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't we just smell the roses? Besides my highly scientific "home poll" shows Obama in a landslide, no matter what.
July 20, 2009 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink