As predicted, August did not go quietly. But after a month of wild-eyed freak outs over death panels, and death books, and death wishes, and death threats, how much has the state of public opinion on health care really changed?
The answer probably depends on how you look at it: too much if you support reform, too little if you oppose it. Given just how raucous the last several weeks have been though--relative to over-the-top rhetoric comparing Obama to Hitler and health care reform to Nazism--the real change has been surprisingly modest.
According to a series of Rasmussen polls taken from early July through last week, public support for Democratic health care reform has fallen about eight points overall, with most of the drop occurring after the town hall disruptions began. Rasmussen currently finds public support for the initiative at 43 percent, and stabilized.
Though different polls vary as to the overall level of public support for health care reform, and Obama's handling of the issue, many indicate a similar drop over the course of the last several weeks.
On the specific question of the public option, the data is a bit muddled. Asked two weeks ago "Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?" only 43 percent of respondents to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll said 'yes', while 47 said no. In July, the split on the same question was 46-44.
But phrase the question differently--is it important "to give people a choice of both a public plan administered by the federal government and a private plan for their health insurance?"--the numbers are wildly different. According to SurveyUSA, 77 percent of respondents to that question said "extremely important" or "quite important."
None of this is to suggest that Obama and Congressional leaders have an easy job ahead of them. Overall support is clearly lower than Democratic leaders would like, and much of the loss in support appears to have come from the independent voters that vulnerable Dems might need if they're to be re-elected in 2010. But still, the reality doesn't map at all on to the news coverage, which made it seem as if health care reform was under siege.


mike from Arlington
August 31, 2009 1:50 PM
So, since the analysis claims support went down because of the mis-information, this gives Democrats a chance and the few Republicans that might support this reform, to coordinate themselves and crush the lies with truth in September along with AARP and other organizations that have really began to mobilize themselves.
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jerryfatheart
August 31, 2009 2:24 PM in reply to mike from Arlington
Yeah, I don't know. If that happens, I'll be pleasantly surprised.
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Chris
August 31, 2009 3:49 PM in reply to mike from Arlington
You would think, right? Clearly we can't let the debate be won by birthers and tea baggers who claim the president is a foreign-born enemy who wants to setup death panels and concentration camps. We can't let that happen. Fighting back with correct information has to prevail.
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TheRealFish
September 1, 2009 7:43 AM in reply to mike from Arlington
And all this would be truly important if the public were actually voting on health care reform in November. But we're not.
Personally, I'm more interested in the polling this time next summer, where Democrats in marginal areas have had maybe eight months to campaign "we got you (nearly?) universal health care reform with a strong, competitive public option -- and not one of you will be dropped by insurers for pre-existing conditions or will lose your health care if you happen to get sick!"
Those polls might actually mean something, where these do not. If the 2010 elections were happening in two months -- instead of a year and two months -- then these short-term irrational fluctuations would actually have some impact.
Our elected need to just get it done. They have a lot longer to fix those polls before election than the month-long corporate disinformation campaign and all the fears it raises, and will have a mighty good "fixer" by having actually done something.
Okay, so the corporate shills have been successful in jiggling public opinion poll numbers during a month when congress is on recess, but the paperwork on the desks in the empty halls of congress is exactly the same as it was when they left DC. Nothing has changed there. The only bill proposal that hasn't been passed is from the Senate Finance Committee and the Gang of Six has exposed itself to be the Gang of Four, since Grassley and Enzi have pulled open their political rain coats and successfully exposed themselves as the non-negotiating perverts many have known them to be all along. It's even made it nearly impossible for Health Corp Baucus to deny the truth behind his debate partners in crime.
Yes. Pass it already, and let's take a look at the August 2010 polls. The ones that actually carry some weight.
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fbacon2
August 31, 2009 2:13 PM
Wow, I came over here to flame this piece because of that headline on the TPM: "Support For Reform Drops A Bit After Tea-Baggers' August Assault"
My first reaction was, "No duh." Yet another example of hyping a non-news event in the health care saga, since every opinion poll over the last month was saying the same thing.
But then I see the story and realized I was wrong: there actually was news to report, but not what the front page banner was suggesting.
The headline should read: "Opinion stable on health care DESPITE Tea-Baggers' August Assault."
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Jotham Stavely
August 31, 2009 2:21 PM
Um, Brian, no offense but what's the margin of error on these "surveys"? My guess would be that in most of these the change you're pointing out is within those margins, and thus not significant enough to write a piece about.
Secondly, while I never worked in opinion research I did work in survey research for 15 years and it was ALWAYS harder to reach people to gather data during July and August. While the pollsters won't admit it because it's bad for their business, personally I don't trust survey results during this time of the year as much as I would those from others.
Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part, but I wanted to put it out there.
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naughtytitans
August 31, 2009 2:48 PM
TEA-BAGGER: n ACRONYM
Totally
Enraged
Against
Blacks
And
Gays
Getting
Equal
Rights
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soupson52
August 31, 2009 3:11 PM in reply to naughtytitans
Very clever,naughtytitans. Thanks for the smile!
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agio
August 31, 2009 2:58 PM
I am not surprised. I have always figured that it would take a little bit of courage on the part of lawmakers, rather than an oveerwhelming groundswell from the public, for Democrats to pass real reform. Americans are always suspicious of change, even if it means changing away from the awful system we currently live under.
I'm just hoping Dems will find that courage.
The good news is, if we can get a Public Option passed it will fast become as sacrosanct as Medicare and Social Security are.
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LarsThorwald
August 31, 2009 2:58 PM
This places Health Care Reform in a decidedly different place than when Bush tried to push out Social Security privitization. The numbers sank like a rock on that pretty quickly, despitre twon halls and a massive push by the White House.
we have not even had a massive push by the White House yet. Not really.
and all the teabggers did was soften support a little...in exchange for a stunning showcasing of their enormous liabilities and idiocy. I'll take that tradeoff.
I think the rope-a-dope is on. Get ready for round 2.
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Marioth
August 31, 2009 3:13 PM in reply to LarsThorwald
Aye, the opposition went from zero to Nazi in August, typically the month when the extremes come out.
Agreed, there has been no organized push from the Dems. If they intend to hold their powder until Sept. when votes are actually cast, we shall soon be calling their hands.
Because a push is the only way the public option sees the light of day.
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happycozy
August 31, 2009 3:07 PM
Wow! I'm pleasantly surprised that support for HCR dropped by such a small number. Think about it: the teabaggers went apesh*t this summer, and support only dropped 8 points. That means, if the dems regroup and run this thing like they've run their election campaigns the past three years, public support for HCR could rise above what it was before the crazy teabagging summer break.
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fbacon2
August 31, 2009 3:09 PM
This is an essential point. Here we have an issue where the public is largely divided or ambivalent, but likely to move depending on how the question is asked. This makes matters of political survival accute for Democrats in competitive districts in a different way than if, as you point out with Bush and Social Security, the more we talk about it the worse it gets.
Plus we have the benefit of getting to disprove the lies by actually passing the bill, whereas Bush was campaigning for a policy he claimed did not equal privatization.
September is where the action is.
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leoklein
August 31, 2009 3:09 PM
What the Dems need to start doing is project to and through the media a 'Queen for a Day' series where on a daily basis we hear one hard-luck story because health care sucks in this country after another.
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ericf
August 31, 2009 3:09 PM
What we have here is a great case for giving the public option a name, since it seems to have turned into political poison, but few in the public know what the phrase means.
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mans_best_friend
August 31, 2009 6:08 PM in reply to ericf
Perhaps you've seen this recent article from Nate Silver:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/08/poll-most-dont-know-what-public-option.html
The R's are doing what they're good at: they exploit ignorance.
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traitorjoe
August 31, 2009 3:12 PM
Tea-Bagger Daily Schedule:
9 a.m. – Wake up
9:15 a.m. – Watch Fox News segment on why Obama is a Socialist and nod in agreement
9:30 a.m. – Cash government unemployment check
10 a.m. – Listen to Limbaugh on radio and giggle, “you tell ‘em Rush!”
10:30 a.m. – Go to doctor paid for by Medicare
11 a.m. – Read email claiming Obama was born in Kenya, forward it to friends and demand to personally see his birth certificate
11:15 a.m. – Print email of talking points against public option written by insurance company which they think comes from “average Americans” like them
11:30 – Paint offensive sign criticizing Obama and Nancy Pelosi
Noon – buy more bullets for hand gun at Wal-Mart, pick up prescription medication for free paid by Medicare
1 p.m. – Picket outside Town Hall meeting, accuse all opponents of being Communists
2 p.m. – Yell inside Town Hall meeting “I want my country back!’
3 p.m. – Try to get interviewed by local Fox affiliate who organized this “grass roots” protest
3:30 p.m. – Listen to Sean Hannity on the radio and smirk, “You tell ‘em Sean!”
4 p.m. – Go online and sign up for extension of unemployment benefits, claim to be looking for jobs
5 p.m. – Watch O’Reilly on Fox News and mutter, “This country is going to hell.”
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Kristin126
August 31, 2009 3:55 PM in reply to traitorjoe
Substitute "social security check" for "unemployment check" and you pretty much have my stepfather in a nutshell. He regularly trashes "lazy people who live off of the government", despite the fact he'd be homeless without Social Security and Medicare.
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L-DUB
August 31, 2009 3:44 PM
traitorjoe,
That's pretty good!
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traitorjoe
August 31, 2009 4:14 PM in reply to L-DUB
Thanks L-Dub, that schedule almost wrote itself.
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Maritza
August 31, 2009 4:05 PM
Why are we posting Rasmussen polls here?
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josedeoueste
August 31, 2009 4:11 PM in reply to Maritza
Please note the question. I'm all for reform but you would have to be crazy to like the way it's being handled.
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Campesino
August 31, 2009 4:48 PM
Well if you squish your baseline to one month (July-Aug)maybe you can make yourself feel better, but if you push back into May and June it gets pretty ugly. The June 18 ABC is at 53-39. The June 27 Rasmussen is at 50-45. The June 15 NC-WSJ on Democrats was at 33-32 with 30 undecided. Virtually all the undecideds went against.
This is just whistling past the graveyard
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mans_best_friend
August 31, 2009 5:59 PM in reply to Campesino
Except you can't compare one poll with another. They use different methodologies and there are consistent differences. Comparing an earlier ABC to a more recent Rasmussen is particularly hilarious.
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Campesino
August 31, 2009 6:09 PM
Except you can't compare one poll with another. They use different methodologies and there are consistent differences. Comparing an earlier ABC to a more recent Rasmussen is particularly hilarious.
==============================================================
That wasn't what I was doing, Goofy. The three polls I cited are the June versions of the three polls cited in the article. They're meant to be compared with the later versions Beutler has in his chart
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unknowncitizen
August 31, 2009 8:58 PM
I don't think even us Democrats are smart enough to stick with the healthcare reform needed to help the current situation.
Our Democratic leaders are pandering to the helpless and those whose hearts always bleed for the helpless.
I think the problem is much simpler. I think the Medicare reimbursement rate (and the medicare tax) needs to go up. Medicare recipients whose income/wealth combination is higher than median also need to keep paying into the plan, very progressively in my view. Why does a wealthy old person get free healthcare while my employer shells up over $13K a year for my coverage and I hardly ever make a claim? It's stupid and unfair, period.
Over about 5 years Medicare should be balanced to be a fully funded program (plus a couple of percent for future recessions) with no cost shifting to other populations. Life should not be a casino, especially one where the wealthiest age group (as a whole) gets to gamble with the odds in their favor and without having to ante.
My employer uses my money to place my bet (I can't opt out)that I will get really really sick while I am covered. After having private health insurance purchased for me for 25 years, there is already about zero chance I will ever be sick enough to rack up healthcare bills anywhere near what has been paid in premiums over decades, and a very reasonable chance that a costly illness will occur and I will be deemed to have low eligibility for coverage, subsequently bankrupting me.
Why not tax everyone to raise enough money for their health insurance - legislate what the minimum plan will cover, and if they don't use the money to buy their own health insurance simply keep their money and send it out to the states per capita as medicaid money. There see, no ones making you buy insurance, you just get charged the same whether you have it or not.
What's missing in the discussion is the absolute fact that the cost for healthcare decisions made between your doctor, yourself (and even the government) will continue to spiral out of control if there are so many people who simply have no personal stake in keeping costs down.
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