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For Obama, The Speed Of Change Also Brings The Speed Of Falling Approval


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With the latest Gallup tracking polls showing that President Obama's approval rating among Americans is now right at 50%, it's very clear that the honeymoon period -- when his ratings were in the high 60's, and he seemed untouchable -- is now over. So what caused him to go down as quickly as he has?

The fact is, all presidents since World War II have eventually gone below 50% approval in Gallup, as Obama seems about to do any day now, with the exception of John F. Kennedy -- whose presidency was tragically cut short before this might have happened at a future date. The record for the longest 50-plus streak goes to Dwight Eisenhower, at 63 months. (People liked Ike for a long time -- but even that couldn't last forever.)

With Obama, however, his decline has happened a bit sooner than it did for others -- and there could be a good explanation why.

Obama's eight-month positive streak is only longer than Gerald Ford, at three months, and Bill Clinton's four months. With Ford, the Nixon pardon destroyed any good will he had coming into office after Watergate, and Clinton was tripped up by a series of botched appointments, the controversy over gays in the military, and eventually his high-profile haircut on an airport tarmac.

In his analysis, Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones said that the health care debate and concerns over government spending have weakened Obama. I asked Jones whether this may be true, but as a component of a larger explanation: That Obama is pursuing vast policy changes at a fast-forward pace -- the stimulus, health care, foreign policy, etc. -- and the sheer speed of his policies is causing the polls to react in the same manner.

Jones agreed that this is a fair explanation: "I think Obama has admitted it himself, that if he basically just came in and was a caretaker his approval rating would still be higher. But he's tried to do a lot of stuff."

Obama can take some heart in this, though: Ronald Reagan's streak only lasted ten months, which was also way below average.

Comments (9) | Join the Conversation!

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August 28, 2009 3:46 PM   

Obama is also paying a price for the enormous gloom hanging over the Bush failed economy and the Bush failed War on Terrorism. How quickly we forget the roots of the present in the past.

As I used to tell my kids: This too will pass. It will be OK.
Let's help him by lightening up a little. No quarterback makes yardage on every play. And we are the linemen. Or we doing our part well enough?

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August 28, 2009 4:05 PM    in reply to sunnysteve

You nailed it, this is a country with ADD, and they want their ritalin.

Problem is, Dr. Obama is prescribing lifestyle changes, not the quick fix they get in every other aspect of their lives.

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August 28, 2009 4:11 PM   

Regan was at 44% right before he won 49 States in the 1984 election.

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August 28, 2009 4:31 PM   

Remember when the stimulus package was doomed? Just google 'Obama stimulus trouble' for some of the sky-is-falling coverage back then.

The same dynamic is playing out with health care, except the time frame is longer now because there isn't the same sense of crisis.

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August 28, 2009 4:32 PM   

He's pursuing change on so many fronts that it's a wonder the media can keep up.

And, in fact, the media isn't really keeping up. It's highlighting the inanity at the town halls. And CNN has found a new fetish in the story of that young woman, found in CA, after having been kidnapped however so many years ago.

I'm impressed, frankly, that his approval ratings are still as high as they are, given the BS that's been spread about him. I'd like them to be higher, but I don't think this is doom and gloom territory.

But then, I'm probably a mindless Obamabot.

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August 28, 2009 4:56 PM    in reply to CT Voter

Meh. I'm not worried. The only way I get worried is if the Dems completely screw the pooch on health reform. They need to realize that the president's agenda on this is and should be their agenda. Stop worrying about the public's perception. Things will be crystal clear (well, clearer than they are now, at least) once something's passed and the media has no choice but to break down the actual legislation into tasty, bite-sized factoids.

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August 28, 2009 5:18 PM    in reply to CT Voter

Have you ever noticed that the ones who are most upset that he hasn't calmed the roiling waters with a word, turned water to wine and raised the dead are the ones who bitched that we thought he was the messiah?

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August 28, 2009 5:38 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Hey, I thought he was the messiah. He's not?

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August 28, 2009 5:48 PM   

I expect BHO himself isn't overly concerned; during the campaign he seemed very inclined to take the long view and not be upset by daily bobbles in popularity.

That said, I don't think ambition is the only possible explanation. Certainly a bad economy contributes, along with casualty lists from Afghanistan and just generally shitty news from abroad (Iraq, Iran, Honduras, Israel, etc etc); and it's not as if the "botched appointments" mentioned wrt Clinton have been absent here (Daschle, Timmeh). And his approach to Congress in both the stimulus and healthcare debates has been pretty timid; in both cases he's allowed the forces of stupid to drive the conversation, leading to less forceful (and likely less effective) bills.

Overall, so far this White House has not been master of events -- often seemingly by choice.

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