Is Virginia For Birthers?
The new survey of Virginia by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that only 53% of likely voters in the state think that President Obama was born in the United States, compared to 24% who say he was not and another 24% who are not sure.
However, as we saw from yesterday's PPP numbers on the gubernatorial race, the likely-voter models this year skew seriously Republican, due to greater intensity of emotions right now among the GOP. For example, this same respondent set voted 52%-41% for John McCain last year (plus a remainder who wouldn't divulge how they voted), compared to a six-point win for Obama in Virginia in the actual election. So is this making the Birther threat look more severe than it really is?
I asked PPP communications director Tom Jensen about this factor, and he confirmed to me that it does indeed make a difference -- but as it turns out, the adjusted figures aren't much of an improvement. "If you reweight the numbers for an Obama 52-46 electorate you get 57 think he was born in the US, 21 think he wasn't, 22 not sure," Jensen said via e-mail. "So better than the numbers we're showing but still a little disturbing."
In the internals, we see these Southern McCain-voters heavily promoting Birtherism: Only 32% say Obama was born here, a 36% plurality say he was not, and 32% are not sure, compared to an 80%-8%-12% breakdown among Obama-voters.
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
Don't underestimate these people
August 5, 2009 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's funny until someone get's hurt. Death threats on the president up 400%. I say bring on the treason prosecutions for the birther freaks.
August 5, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
As U.S. Constituion Online in its annotation to this clause,
The freepers and teashirters have been calling whatever the other side is doing that they don't like "treason" for years, now. When they do it, they're wrong as a matter of law, wrong morally and wrong as a matter of civic ethics. It doesn't help when we do it too.
August 5, 2009 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Threats to kill the lawfully elected president of the US in furtherance of an organized plot to destabilize and undermine the government. You'll notice the term "War" is not given a specific definition; my view (yes I'm a lawyer, among other things) is to hell with the philosophical bankruptcy of Framer's intent strict constructionism. We make the rules based on the social realities of today. There's a conspiracy out there, and its intentions are unlawful and, yes, treasonous, in that they intend to subvert the political process through violence, i.e. my definition of war.
It's not a stretch, Perry Mason, and the "we don't want to look as bad as them" nonsense is the mindset of the old Democratic party.
August 5, 2009 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hold on a sec. Yes, a threat to kill the President might well be considered treasonous, but making up law based purely on "social realities" and wanting to round up wingnuts as part of a conspiracy makes you sound like a crazy person.
August 5, 2009 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it's certainly impossible to underestimate their intelligence. It's their political influence that's in question.
August 5, 2009 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear South:
We were wrong - feel free to secede at any time.
Best of luck,
The North.
August 5, 2009 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, don't paint with such a broad brush! Remember, Virginia went for Obama; has 2 Dem Senators, some Congressmen, and a Dem governor at the moment. I am hoping our wise Latino Virginians will save us from a repub governor in the next election. Unfortunately we have a very weak candidate with Deeds, but who knows? Miracles happen -- just watch including Virginia in the lunatic fringe -- we still have too many of them, but I think the state is gradually evolving.
August 5, 2009 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and please feel free to take Nevada, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, and the Dakotas with you. (I'd say AZ too, but I really like the Grand Canyon and the north side is much prettier)
August 5, 2009 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh heck no- we're not giving up states with tons of natural resources like Montana.
Plus, the Dakotas give us Mount Rushmore- sort of hard to give that away.
The real question is whether we have to give away Florida as a part of it- could just be collateral damage, but it's a big downside.
August 5, 2009 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe someone should ask Tom Jensen if there's a correlation with IQ.
Just wonderin'.
August 5, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Southern Republicans seem to have seceeded from sanity - Kathleen Parker
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/04/AR2009080402424.html
August 5, 2009 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
K. Parker is going have to apologize to Limbaugh before they give her RNC card back! Not once, but twice Kathleen! And in the village paper! Bless her heart.
Thanks for the link j, I would have missed it.
August 5, 2009 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's with "Obama voters" who think he wasn't born in the US? Those have got be the most confused of all.
August 5, 2009 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
i really, really, really hope that one day northern virginia can split off as the 51st state.
August 5, 2009 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, West Virginia already exists and you know the rule about only allowing two prefixes to exist for any proper name of a state.
Although, if you come up with a name other than North Virginia, you may have a shot! How about Villagia? Congressylvania?
August 5, 2009 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm dying to see a poll that asks how many people think Barack Obama was born in the US, and ALSO asks how many people think John McCain was born in the US.
I think the results on that one would be VERY revealing.
August 5, 2009 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to see how many people think Orly Taitz is really an alien.
August 5, 2009 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just "Real" Virginia is for birthers. The rest of us are implants and do not come from the same bloodlines.
August 5, 2009 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
the likely-voter models this year skew seriously Republican
Doesn't that say bad things by itself though? I mean, if Republicans are more likely voters then are the dems in trouble in the Governor's race?
August 5, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you figured out that Virginia is one of the most rascist parts of our otherwise great country.
I am f*%#ing impressed.
August 5, 2009 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is their end game for this? Sheesh, do they even have that thought out? Oh, just produce a real birth certificate and it will be fine. No, it wont you lunatics. you wont be satisfied at all. elections have consequences and you lost. deal with it. but thats clearly too much to expect. what petulant and emotionally stunted children.
August 5, 2009 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink