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Poll: Dem Sen. Blanche Lincoln Vulnerable
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)
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A new survey of Arkansas from Public Policy Polling (D) finds that Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a key centrist Democrat, could be in serious danger going into 2010 -- with her running in dead heats with three essentially unknown Republicans.
The numbers: State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker edges out Lincoln by 42%-40%; businessman Curtis Coleman leads her by 41%-40%; and Lincoln edges Afghanistan War veteran Tom Cotton by 40%-39%. All of these results are within the ±3.5% margin of error.
In addition, none of the Republicans have favorable ratings in the double digits, and the percentage of respondents who have no opinion is about 80% in all cases. So this is essentially Lincoln against generic Republicans.
From the pollster's analysis: "You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator."
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LuxVeritas
August 26, 2009 2:32 PM
Uhh, OR you get a clearer indication of how backwards Arkansas is. The second poll this week to give us a clear picture of that in fact.
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Buckeye Terrorist Fist Jab Nation
August 26, 2009 4:04 PM in reply to LuxVeritas
Nailed that.
It speaks volumes about Arkansas.
It says nothing about the east, midwest or west coast.
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CT Voter
August 26, 2009 4:16 PM in reply to LuxVeritas
Exactly.
"You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator."
Actually, you couldn't get a clearer indication of the desperation for Republicans to claim that momemtum is on their side.
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Jyrinx
August 26, 2009 10:49 PM in reply to LuxVeritas
Or, couldn't it just mean people don't like Sen. Lincoln? I don't even see a reason to generalize beyond _this race_ (besides that PPP wants to make headlines).
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chimpale
August 26, 2009 2:41 PM
Hey Blanche, if you come out in support of the public option, you might just get some support for your campaign from unexpected sources. Hell, I'd even send you $25.
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mcc
August 26, 2009 2:43 PM
"You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than [Arkansas]"
????!?
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mans_best_friend
August 26, 2009 2:54 PM in reply to mcc
You know the old saying, "As Arkansas goes, so goes the nation".
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mjshep
August 27, 2009 11:30 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
If that's true then we are so screwed!
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ogliberal
August 26, 2009 2:53 PM
Look at by how many points Obama lost to McCain in Arkansas. That state, along with Louisiana, where Obama also got smashed by McCain, are not the states they were in 1992, when both voted for Clinton. Yeah, three of the four sentators from these states are Democrats but racism and ignorance appear to run deep in both. (I have family in New Orleans and I can state from experience that both ignorance and racism are pretty common even in that most cosmopolitan of Southern cities - I can only imagine what it's like in the more suburban or rural areas of these states.) Arkansas is a lot like West Virginia, politically Democratics at the state level but pretty darned conservative when it comes to national races. It's no coincidence that both have significant Scots-Irish populations with very few urban population centers and no coast/port cities to speak of.
Funny that Lincoln is one of those Senators that the Dems probably can't count on for a yea vote on a reform bill, especially one with a public option. Lot of good that stance is getting her, huh. I think it's basically that these people hate Obama - some of them viscerally - and they're taking out that anger on Lincoln simply because she's from the same party. I think it's damned if they do, damned if they don't for the Blue Dogs and their co-horts in the Senate - if they vote for healthcare reform, they'll never get the vote of the crazies in their states/districts. But if they don't, the Dem base is unlikely to come out in force for them, either before or on election day. And that's why the Dems as a whole shouldn't worry to much about protecting these seats - most of them are probably done no matter what happens with HC reform...but even with those losses, the Dems can probably still hold on to both houses, albeit with smaller majorities. (lot of good those majorities are doing now, huh?)
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chimpale
August 26, 2009 3:01 PM in reply to ogliberal
It might surprise these Dems just how far it can take them when they stand up for their principles and do the right thing.
Paul Wellstone was complimented by voters who disagreed with his positions but admired his willingness to stand up for what he believed in.
Nobody likes a coward, no matter what he or she claims to be in favor of.
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gharlane
August 26, 2009 4:13 PM in reply to chimpale
No, No, No. We Must Compromise. We Must Always Compromise. Otherwise They Will Think We Are Partisan. And They Will Say Mean Things About Us. And That Would Be Awful.
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Buckeye Terrorist Fist Jab Nation
August 26, 2009 4:08 PM in reply to ogliberal
Well put.
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markg8
August 26, 2009 3:06 PM
"and the percentage of respondents who have no opinion is about 80% in all cases."
No opinion on the race? That would seem to belie any claim about this poll other than apathy.
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jonnienohands
August 26, 2009 3:41 PM in reply to markg8
That's how I read it.
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Walter Mitty
August 26, 2009 3:44 PM
I wonder if she is polling so low because she's banking right in her attempt to stay elected. Maybe she should realize that Republicans will vote for the Republican and her only hope is to side with the Dems in State and hope to rally them to her cause. If she's part of the centrists that deliver an ugly watered down health reform bill, she's finished. I think there will be a centrist blood bath at the polls if real Healthcare reform is lost because of the blue dogs and Senate centrists. Progressives will say "Why should we bother to work to keep you elected, and why should we vote for you when you can't even vote for cloture on key Democratic Party platform.
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CT Voter
August 26, 2009 4:18 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Yes. Progressives will be profoundly unmotivated to work next year. And Wingnuts will be profoundly motivated, probably.
Are you paying attention, Rahm?
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JohnW1141
August 27, 2009 8:58 AM in reply to CT Voter
Ct.
I agree. Unless things change I think the Dems problem in the next election might be low voter turnout from their base. I see myself as a liberal and except maybe for Pelosi, I'm very unhappy with the Democratic Party leadership, especially Obama. Obama and Reid seem to be birds of a feather, weak leaders.
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gharlane
August 26, 2009 4:19 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Was it Truman who said: Give 'em a choice between a Republican and a Republican, and they'll pick the Republican every time....
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Shalamarfine
August 26, 2009 4:29 PM
Hell, since she's going to lose to a Birther anyway, she might as well make history by voting for health reform with a public option.
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neesy08
August 27, 2009 8:00 AM
Arkansas? Really? As opposed to say a seat in CA, NY or MA? Who cares about AK? It is a red state, she should be in trouble.
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