A new Rasmussen poll in Illinois rates the 2010 Senate race for President Obama's former Senate seat as a toss-up, with Republican Rep. Mark Kirk currently leading two Democrats.

The numbers: Kirk 41%, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 38%; Kirk 47%, Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson 30%, with Jackson having lower name recognition than Kirk and Giannoulias. The margin of error is ±4.5%.

The pollster's analysis makes clear that Democratic voters could solidify behind their eventual nominee, once the race has really gotten going: "Illinois, with a favorite son now in the White House, runs largely Democratic in statewide races, so much can change in the months ahead."