Rasmussen: Toomey Now Leads Specter, Sestak In Statewide Poll
There might be one beneficiary of the flame war between Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA): Republican Pat Toomey.
Whomever wins the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania next year will battle Toomey in the general election, and now, for the first time, Toomey shows a lead over both men. A Rasmussen telephone survey of likely voters, released today, shows 48 percent would vote Toomey, 36 Specter if the election were held today. Four percent opt for a third option, and 12 are not sure.
Specter's taken a beating in recent months for switching parties at a crucial political moment, and though he enjoys extremely wide name recognition, the attacks seem to be taking their toll. But the situation's no better for Sestak, who until recently was also beating Toomey. Toomey now has a 43-35 lead over Sestak, down from June, when Sestak enjoyed a six point lead over Toomey.
| TOPICS: Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak, PA-SEN, Pat Toomey, Senate '10
Josh
Matt
Eric
Brian
At one point, McCain was ahead of both Obama and Hillary, too. I'm just saying.
August 13, 2009 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh for goodness sake, another Rasmussen poll article given publicity on TPM. This TPM obsession with a known right-wing biased poll is beyond absurd. Rasmussen is far out of the mainstream of pollsters. A very simple objective view of pollster.com re: Obama's approval and favorable ratings indicates that clearly. And his track record during the primaries was abysmal. He always pumps up the Republican numbers. Yet TPM willingly reports his polls with no qualifiers at all. We can all go to Fox News if we want this type of out-of-context reporting that makes it seem as if the Republicans are doing better.
August 13, 2009 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess it could be that Eric trusts us to think for ourselves and take the polls for what they're worth.
Wait a second. This wasn't posted by Eric? Dude, Brian, the Unskeptical Reporting of Polls and Occasional Concern Baiting beat belongs to Eric! He spent a lot of time during the presidential campaign marking that territory!
August 13, 2009 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
acutally, your own obsession is beyond absurd.
stop insulting tpm readers. we are much smarter than you give us credit for. and even if we weren't, you guys won't ever let a post about a rasmussen poll go by without the predictable shit-fit all over the comments.
it's almost as if tpm only posts about rasmussen polls just to get you guys riled up.
August 13, 2009 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen poll of "likely voters" is ridiculous. They use too many Republicans in their polls and who is a "likely voter" 18 months before an election? Also, Pennsylvania has such a HIGHER Democratic registration than Republican and I am absolutely sure that Rasmussen is NOT taking that into consideration.
I think that certain "likely voters" models are fine a couple of months before an election but are NOT accurate this early before an election.
I don't put any stake in Rasmussen polls this early.
August 13, 2009 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to fudge a 12 pt lead for Toomey and still be a respectable pollster. Rasmussen may have an LV model that favors the GOP but he's not going to fabricate a double-digit lead. If Toomey's lead were, say, 4 pts, then you could argue that his model might be wrongly giving Toomey the lead. But 12 pts? Sorry, folks, Arlen is in trouble on both fronts. We need to start realizing that while we've got a long way to go until the 2010 elections, this town hall silliness is actually working for the GOP.
That said, I think these numbers also represent the loss of respect Pennsylvanians have for Specter. GOP folks hated him already and now they hate him more. Dem folks don't trust him. That's probably why the undecideds are so high.
My guess is that Arlen is going to have a hard time motivating folks to go out to vote for him in 2010 while the GOP base will be fired up. There are probably a decent number of more conservative Dems in PA who voted for Obama but who now think he's a socialist hellbent on giving everything to the brothers. (I think this is true elsewhere as well - it's sad that in order to keep these folks on board, Obama basically has to do nothing that might help minorities nor can he speak out in defense of minorities, even those who are good frieds - eg, Gates.) The Dems best hope is for Sestak to beat Specter in the primary. Sestak's main problem now is name recognition. As the race heats up, more people will come to know him. And winning a primary certainly increases name recognition. I think he's a guy who non-crazy PA voters will choose over Toomey. Non-crazy PA voters might not vote for Toomey over Specter but the problem is that many may not vote at all. I think Sestak can get more Dems to the polls. And I think he could probably beat Toomey pretty handily.
August 13, 2009 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Face it...Dems are in trouble in just about every state at this point
That's fact number one
Fact number two - fact number one will not be fact next year
August 13, 2009 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. Some form of healthcare reform will pass this year. We may not like it all that much but it will probably be the most significant healthcare related legislation since Medicare/Medicaid over 40 years ago. It will be a win for Obama and the Dems and the media will play it as such. And the economy will be better come early 2010 and even more so by the Fall. Not great, maybe not even good...but much better than today and on a steady climb up.
The GOP will definitely make some gains but they will be small and they will not take back either house. Dems may lose their 60 in the Senate but what good has that "filibuster-proof" majority done for us anyway?
And by 2012, things will be even better.
But yeah, right now, even if you exclude Rasmussen, polls show the Dems are in trouble right now. That's a reality. It happens, espcially during an economic crisis like the one were facing now. You blame the folks running the show and right now that's the Dems.
August 13, 2009 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is of ESPECIAL significance the Sestak is running as strong as or stronger than Specter against Toomey. This is urgently important in the primary campaign -- as one reason many mainstream Democrats might be doubtful about supporting Sestak is the notion that the much better-known Specter would be a more formidable candidate in 2010. I suspect that Sestak's campaign will pick up steam relative to Specter from this controversy, and the more steam he picks up, the more there is a virtuous circle. Sestak may not be a progressive's ideal, but he is likely to be less bound by an ideological commitment to oppose much that is supported by 90% or more of his Democratic colleagues in the Senate. In essence, the difference between a conservative wing Democrat and a 'moderate' wing Democrat may not seem much, but could be decisive in a lot of votes in the Senate.
I sure hope Sestak wins in the primary, and believe that if there is any anti-incumbent backlash in swing states like PA, he would be better positioned than Specter to dodge it.
August 13, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Toomey is a fruitloop and almost as bad as santorum. He will never win against either sestak or specter. The battle will be in the dem primary and I hope sestak wins. Specter should just retire.
Ratsmussen has zero credibility. I hope the repukes keep following ratsmussen polling and it will lead them to defeat in 2010.
August 13, 2009 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I notice that almost every GOPer, when they want to cite a poll, cites Rasmusssen. He's FoxNews' favorite pollster. Before he took up polling, Rasmussen was the forgotten co-founder of ESPN and an official in an Methodist camp meeting association in Jersey. Now he's all over the news and beloved by wingnuts. The dude isn't going to stop delivering polls that make GOPers scream, "Look...people think the Dems suck!" But when we get closer to the election and Rasmussen changes his likely voter model to make it more relevant, his polls will fall closer in line with reality and then he can still claim that he's one of the most accurate pollsters around.
However, I would note that it's very difficult to credibly manufacture a 12pt lead. He's a tool but he's not that big of a tool. Specter likely is trailing Toomey. I think the bigger news is that Sestak who has even less name recognition than Toomey is trailing Toomey by only 8pts. A primary win for Sestak would likely turn that number around.
August 13, 2009 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of ratsmussen's polling makes any sense. I checked out the link and other polls. Dems outnumber republicans by a substantial margin in PA, and based on that, the numbers just do not add up at all. His healthcare reform polling is even more laughable. I wonder how he sleeps at night when he is the leading "evidence" used by repukes to stir people up against healthcare reform. Pathetic.
August 13, 2009 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink