http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/cbo-good-public-option-saves-even-mor

the CBO says attaching the public plan to Medicare rates will save even more money than originally thought:

In a bid to wrangle concessions from the Blue Dog Coalition on healthcare reform, House leaders Thursday released CBO estimates for liberals' preferred version of the public option that show $85 billion more in savings than for the version the Blue Dogs prefer.

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., a Blue Dog co-chair, said any possible new momentum toward a public option tethered to Medicare rates is, in part, "because of the cost issue" and the updated CBO score.

The original House bill required the public plan to pay providers 5 percent more than Medicare reimbursement rates. But as part of a package of concessions to Blue Dogs, the House Energy and Commerce Committee accepted an amendment that requires the HHS Secretary to negotiate rates with providers. That version of the plan will save only $25 billion.

In total, a public plan based on Medicare rates would save $110 billion over 10 years. That is $20 billion more than earlier estimates, a spokesman for House Speaker Pelosi said.

In other words, the conservatives want to spend $85 billion more than the liberals do. Moreover, the CBO is estimating savings to the government. That is to say, the $85 billion reflects reduced federal spending on subsidies because premiums in the public plan will be lower. Savings to individuals and businesses paying lower premiums will be much larger than $85 billion, and politically, much more important

Why does she think triggers will work? And she's for state-by-state triggers. This means the various public options' risk pools would be limited to state populations. Small state-wide public options won't have the leverage to keep prices down the way a national public option would. And I think she has indicated she'd back these public options being sub-contracted out to private companies...which would add to overhead. That isn't going to work. Prices will continue to rise. And if health care reform doesn't work...chalk one up for the Republicans. Obama has said he'll own this legislation, and he's right. He'd better keep an eye on the tendency for the Senate (House of Lords) to water down House (House of Commons) legislation.

The most logical solution to this whole thing is HR 675, John Conyers' bill before the House. Can anyone envision a scenario by which this might actually come to a vote?