Poll: McDonnell Still Ahead, Thesis Not A Big Issue (For Now, Anyway)

It dawns on me that people seem to think that revelations during a campaign should have an immediate impact. But, I just don't think that they usually do, unless it's a political bombshell like an indictment, revelation of an affair, or something along those lines.

The revelations in the VA and NJ races are significant, but they're not bombshells in the typical sense. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to conclude (especially after "snap polling"; both races were polled during or soon after major revelations) that they don't affect the electorate. They do. How so? By planting a seed of doubt about a candidate, or driving up unfavorables (PPP notes this shift in their recent poll), or by softening support, etc ...

In other words, these types of revelations are more insidious. From now on, Christie and McDonnell will be seen through the prism of the revelations of their respective contests. Since, according to polls, they both are still relatively unknown in their states, and many voters are still "undecided," this negative information will ultimately factor into voters' decisions. As election day approaches and voters actually have to make a decision, many will recall this negative input, and polls should tighten. They will also tighten in the more proximal term, as voters have a little more time to process the information.

[That being said, Corzine's abysmal favorability ratings in NJ add in a variable that may mitigate negative revelations about Christie. If this occurs, it should be apparent in the next batch of polls, after voters have had some time to absorb the new information.]