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Poll Shows Turnout Is Key In New Jersey -- And GOP Is More Motivated For Now

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2009, 11:42AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

NJ-GOV

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A new Monmouth University poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race underscores the big problem that Democrats are facing in this blue state: A lack of motivation for their own voters, compared to an energized GOP base.

Among likely voters, Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie leads with 47% against Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 39%, plus 5% for independent candidate Chris Daggett.

Among the larger pool of registered voters, however, it's Corzine who edges ahead: Corzine 41%, Christie 40%, Daggett 6%.

From the pollster's analysis: "At this point, the likely voter result is our best estimate of where the dynamics of this race stand at this time. We provide the registered voter results in the interest of furthering our understanding of the entire New Jersey electorate's concerns and motivations. The bottom line is that turnout always matters. It just may matter more in this election than usual."

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6 comments

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JustAChicagoVoter

September 14, 2009 11:53 AM

There's so much coverage of this race here at TPM. Which is fine, they can cover whatever they want, but I really don't understand it. Does anyone not from NJ give two craps about it? I certainly don't.

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

September 14, 2009 12:00 PM

It's the whole groundhog day part that I find kind of annoying. Democrat behind in Big New Jersey Race seems to be the headline for every race in that state until about three weeks before Election Day. Not saying I take a repeat of that pattern for granted. Just saying "wake me up three weeks before Election Day," 'cause history indicates those are the only polls with predictive value.

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KeithL

September 14, 2009 12:19 PM

Hey! I'm in New Jersey and I give a crap! Having said that, however, I tend to agree with the other commenters. It IS reminiscent of Groundhog Day, or Lucy and her dreaded football.

I'm not that familiar with Monmouth polls, but anyone who contends that they can identify likely voters in such a tumultuous and unpredictable state as New Jersey, is cruisin' for a disabusin'.

I believe Chris Christie's personal and ethical negatives will ultimately prove too much for New Jersey's hapless Republicans to overcome. If John Corzine, a reasonably liberal and effective Governor, had not somewhat outworn his welcome, it wouldn't even be close.

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jdb316

September 14, 2009 2:31 PM

It's a national story only in the sense that both parties will, perhaps wrongly, try to use this election (and the VA gubernatorial race) as harbingers of national trends.

If the Republicans win the governorship in a VERY blue state like NJ, and especially if they sweep both VA and NJ, they'll crow about how they're on the way back, how Americans have already gotten fed up with those pinko socialist Dems and how they're on their way to taking back Congress.

Similarly, if the Dems should win one or (especially) both of these races, they'll be crowing about how the Republicans still don't get it and how the Republicans remain stuck in the wilderness.

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readytoblowagasket

September 14, 2009 8:46 PM

I'm interested in what happens in NJ because Christie is such a reprehensible turd. (Don't expect him to be a fairly cogent Christine Todd Whitman-type; he's a Bushie.) If Christie beats Corzine, it might be something of a harbinger for David Paterson's NY race in 2010. There seem to be many disgruntled voters in both states.

Check out this picture of Corzine with a gun sticking out of his ear. An apt visual for how the Dems are looking in states where they should not even be challenged by turds.

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