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Sources: Expect Disappointed Progressives After Obama's Big Health Care Speech

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Late last night, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)--a co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus--issued a press release saying he had "grave concerns" that the White House is telling pro-reform groups that they will "cease supporting" the public option.

Though I can not confirm Grijalva's specific claim entirely, after a number of off-the-record conversations with congressional and advocacy sources, it's clear that many progressives are preparing themselves to be disappointed next week.

Low-level White House officials have reached out to certain reform groups that have staked their ground on the need for a public option, I'm told, and warned them not to spend any more money advocating for the policy--that it's just not worth it. That suggestion hasn't been heeded--at least for now. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Democracy for America raised over $100,000 to continue running this ad in Iowa after Congress returns from recess.

But a White House official told the New York Times "It's so important to get a deal [that Obama] will do almost anything it takes to get one," which strikes some as an all-too-apt description of the White House's mentality.

Many believe that the administration--reportedly in fevered negotiations with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)--will put their efforts into securing a health care reform bill that calls for a public option as a fallback--to be triggered at a later date if and only if private insurers don't manage to rein in premium prices on their own.

House progressives have vowed to oppose such a scheme and some are renewing their insistence that they won't accept such a compromise.

If that effort fails, the thinking is that the "reconciliation" option--which circumvents a filibuster, and could allow Congress to enact a fairly robust public plan--could still be in play.

That said, the process is still very fluid, and much still hinges on what happens in the days leading up to the President's landmark health care address before Congress next week.

The leader of one major reform group said that they have received absolutely no communications whatsoever from the White House regarding the content of the President's speech or anything that would indicate from them a change in their position on the public option.

But that appears, for now, to be the optimistic take.

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217 comments

Recommend Recommend (4)

September 3, 2009 12:53 PM   

Because I can think of nothing more important to say about this:

If there is no Robust Public Option, the mandate MUST be removed.

If the Public Option is on a trigger, the mandates MUST be removed, or be on a trigger as well.

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September 3, 2009 12:56 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Yes. Otherwise, say hello to a one-term president and a mortally weakened Democratic Party.

While it's probably too much to expect that the White House could have anticipated the depth of the crazy this past month, it still seems that it's done a particularly inept job of handling this.

If there's no public option (whatever its name), Democrats aren't going to support it, Independents aren't going to support, so who's left?

Olympia Snowe?

And the urge to get something done at all costs is an urge that should have been in evidence 3 months ago. Now it's a bit late.

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September 3, 2009 1:12 PM    in reply to CT Voter

Agree. The White House got out-hussled on this by the crazies.

I shall withhold final judgement until we see for sure, but if this all holds true it's incredibly disappointing.

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wyt

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September 3, 2009 2:19 PM    in reply to SchrodingersCat

Agreed!!

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September 3, 2009 3:24 PM    in reply to CT Voter

And a mortally weakened Democratic party means the lunatics will have a chance to finish running the asylum into the ground. Look at who the main GOP figures are. Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, Jeb, Romney.
Not a good future.

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September 3, 2009 7:21 PM    in reply to CT Voter

Same shit they said about Clinton being a one term president.

What a bunch of fucking whimps in this forum. Whining crybabies. So go vote for a republican and see how good that will work out for all of you.

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September 3, 2009 7:58 PM    in reply to lousgirl84

Couldn't agree more. These posters are ready to throw the president under the bus at the least of provications. Please, gang, hang in there a little longer. Please remember the long 8 year nightmare we had to live through with bush.

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September 3, 2009 8:00 PM    in reply to lousgirl84

Thank you for a sane voice! The Republicans destroyed the American dream and the economy, got us into an unnecessary war, and ignored science re: the environment and climate change. But people here think by not supporting the Democrats that will *help* the nation?!? That is beyond disgusting. By returning the Republicans to power you will essentially destroy the foundation of the country. More innocent lives will be lost. And the wealthy will be better off than ever while poverty increases. But yes, you must punish Obama and the Democrats because what they have done (helped turn the economy around, improved environmental laws, restored stem cell research) must be thrown out. What rubbish! Sorry, no president has ever been perfect. Deal with it.

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September 4, 2009 11:51 AM    in reply to lousgirl84

Excuse me?

I'm not throwing him under the bus at all. If he doesn't get something meaningful done on healthcare reform, he's going to have a decidedly unmotivated bunch of supporters. To point this out isn't to desert Obama, or be a wimp--it's simply an observation.

The crazies are dominating the discussion, and the Obama Administration has stood back. Maybe he's playing 37 dimensional chess, and I'm just too stupid to recognize it, but the discussion about healthcare is completely and utterly out of the White House's hands at this point.

And to read that he's desperate to get "anything" done doesn't help.

And I can't criticize the president and the Democrats at all? Your response is to tell me to go vote for a Republican if I'm so disappointed?

Me? If I'd just spent the last 8 months criticizing Obama and complaining that he's not doing enough, blah, blah, blah, fine. I haven't, and you know it.

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September 3, 2009 1:38 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

I find it interesting that you would issue a threat/ultimatum in trying to argue that a threat is not an effective way to change behavior.

If the law says that the government will introduce a public plan if insurance premiums in a certain market (state/regional/national) rise by more than the rate of inflation two years in a row, or rise by more than X percent in a given year, or are X percent higher than the average (choose your "trigger") AND insurance companies think the public option is the worst thing in the world AND insurance companies are already charging too high prices, then why wouldn't you expect the threat to work.

The State of Wisconsin repeatedly used this kind of threat to good effect in counties where there was little comeptition.

The fact is we use threats all the time to ensure compliance, it lots of areas of policy. If this is all it takes to get a bunch of senators on board I think you'd be absolutely idiotic not to take it.

That is unless you have already made the public option into your golden calf.

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September 3, 2009 2:07 PM    in reply to Economides

If you meant to reply to me, you should realize that in the few words of my comment, I said nothing about a golden calf.

I said, without a robust public option, mandates need to be removed.

otherwise this bill is one big giveaway to the insurance industry

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September 3, 2009 2:26 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

The reason you have mandates is so there are no free riders who otherwise raising the cost to everyone, and so the insurers do not have to waste resources defending against adverse selection which accounts for their most atrocious practices like recission.

What problem does the public option solve that cannot be solved by another mechanism?

And what about the problems the public option doesn't necessarily solve (the way neither medicare not medicare solve it)--like, say, controlling the cost of health care.

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September 3, 2009 2:34 PM    in reply to Economides

if the public option won't bring down costs (in your opinion), then how is it an effective tool for threatening insurance companies? Why would they care if there is a public option or not?

And if we are in a crisis, as the President puts it, why should we wait for things to get even worse, before threatening a public option?

many people who do not have insurance can not afford insurance, yet you think it is a good plan to force them to buy it.

and subsidizing healthcare, a $5000 rebate, wasn't that McCain's plan?

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September 3, 2009 3:27 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

First, the public option is not free. You pay for it either entirely out of pocket, with a subsidy from your employer if they go into the exchange and with a government subsidy that is not exclusive to the public option. There is no version of universal health care that does not involve subsidizing the people who can't afford it (and charging more to the people who can).

Second, an insurer who faces no competition will likely charge higher prices than if they have to compete. The pubic option is one way to force direct competition. To me the threat, as long as the trigger for it is written into law and not simply at the discretion of whomever happens to be the political appointee of the hour, is probably a cheaper way to do it. But there is also a mechanism through the exchange that can force competition. If the exchange in national then there will always be a range of plans to choose form the way Federal employees have it. If the exchange is too Balkanized such that there is only one plan in the exchange then of course you'd have to have another plan, or the threat of one. You can create competition and reduce insurance overhead with very tight regulation--as they do in Germany, Switz and Netherlands.

Third, the major reasons health care costs are high and growing is not because of the existence of private health insurers. The reason we know that is because Medicare and Medicaid also are experiencing the same kind of inflation, and we know that, under Medicare, some health care providers know how to deliver care less expensively because they do things very differently. Public or private, if you are paying the most efficient care providers you'll be able to pay them considerably less for as good if not better care. Blaming the insurers for all our problems is easy but also misses the point. The government pays for 50% of health care in the US they could use that leverage to transform health care delivery starting to day with or without a public option.

Because we are in a crisis we need to solve our problems in a fundamental way, and pretending that any one provision of reform is either a magic bullet, or the one and only thing we need to do is a massive error.

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September 3, 2009 3:32 PM    in reply to Economides

I never said it was free.

I'm open to other options that can bring down costs.

Subsidies minus a good, solid option to bring down costs is not a good idea, it is a giveaway to insurance industry.

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September 3, 2009 4:11 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

1) Insurance costs are not the problem, but to the extent it is we have the the exchange mechanism and regulation. If there were a single national marketplace for insurance without the possibility of denying coverage then don;t you think insurers would have to compete against each pother far more than they do know and on a totally different basis--i.e. much larger risk pools, cost control incentives for providers, wellness incentives for insurees rather than trying figure who not to insure.

2) delivery system reform (including not limited to...
-comparative effectiveness research
-effective IT investments
-value based payment system reform
-independent super MedPAC that sets public reimbursement policies and gives to Congress for an up or down vote

There is plenty more. By the way you need to do all those things with or without a public option.

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September 3, 2009 4:20 PM    in reply to Economides

now you are just ridiculous.

Particapation in the exchange, for insurance companies is not mandatory. They do not have to be in it, or compete with it.

The exchange is not a method for controlling the cost of healthcare.

All the other aspects of the current bill are good, but insufficient.


Remember this:

When premium subsidies are capped at 300% of the federal poverty line, the median family in 18 states would lose eligibility for support. The average subsidy that these families would lose would be $5,000. Families in five states would spend 19% or more of their household income on health insurance premiums. Because this analysis looks only at premiums and not total out-of-pocket spending on medical care, it understates the full burden that families in the exchange would assume without federal subsidies. When premium subsidies are capped at 400% of the federal poverty line (the cut-off proposed by the House bill), the median family of four in all but three states would receive some assistance. The average credit for eligible middle-income families would be about $6,273.


The fact that Democrats are now arguing for McCain's stupid $5000 rebate plan is ridiculous!

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September 3, 2009 4:36 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

1. You'll have to tell me where you are quoting from. I am pretty sure the 18% counts employees an employer side of premiums. The employer side contribution does not disappear. That's what pay or play is about. And yes these costs are too high which is why you need #4 below.

2. The median household has coverage. We have 15% uninsured not 55%. And now they will get the benefit of guaranteed issue, etc.. which even if not cheaper is better security.

3. the exchange is a way to create competition among insurance plans, and/or choice for consumers like Federal workers get. but like the public plans may or may not have any effect on the cost of health care that it provides insurance for. You actually think the private insurers will not join the exchange? What happened in Medicare part D? Massachusetts? If the exchange is done on a national basis the insurance companies will all just quit doing business. Fine. Isn't that what you want?

4. You still have to do the hard stuff to change costs in the delivery system

5. If the subsidy is insufficient then raise it. We still have to pay for it. Is there a provision of the law that says the subsidy can;t be changed? But is this not exactly the problem we have with Medicare and Medicaid... an ever increasing spiral of public subsidy that is squeezing our ability to fund our other priorities...and they are already public insurance!

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September 3, 2009 4:48 PM    in reply to Economides

you're a goofball, "If the subsidy is insufficient then raise it."

Members of the Senate Finance Committee have proposed reducing support even beyond these levels, limiting subsidies to families making 300% of the poverty line.

That will leave even more familes out of receiving any subsidies at all, yet they are still required to purchase insurance.

Private insurance is not required to join the exchange. They can sell insurance without being part of the exchange. The exchange, like many Fortune 500 companies have, do not drive down overall costs of health insurance.


What if you are self emplyoed, or your work does not offer any health Insurance?

Go for your incrementalism. Fight for everything the insurance industry is asking for.

When people are fined, and forced to purchase these plans with rising costs the dems are over anyway.

you are advocating idiocy.


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September 3, 2009 4:57 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

I am arguing for controlling the cost of health care. You are arguing for ripping the insurance companies a new one. Yours is not a solution as much as it may be emotionally satisfying.

If we cannot control costs then we'll have to up the subsidy the same way we do in our public insurance programs. that's no solution but it's what happens.

I've never argued that the plans in congress are perfect. I assume they are fucked up because congress is fucked up. The public option does not change that at all. Are you under the impression that Social Security and Medicare were not incremental? I suppose you would have been against them, too.

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September 3, 2009 5:00 PM    in reply to Economides

exactly, you are for the status quo. Maintaining costs as they are now.

and giving fat subsidies to insurance companies

damning anyone not covered by the subsidies

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September 3, 2009 10:39 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

I've said repeatedly if we reform the health delivery system we can get better quality at lower cost. The key to doing that is not who pays it is how you pay and for what. For the same service Mediare pays one provider $70,000 and another $40,000. Ity's not because of different prices , it's because of how they use resources differently.

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September 3, 2009 5:05 PM    in reply to Economides

btw, you are arguing that the public option never had a purpose, and nothing is lost when it it lost.

I never said anything about perfect bills or any of this other tired crap you keep bringing up that I never said.

My one point has always been:


If there is no robust mechanism to lower costs (like a good public option), then

there should be no mandate


The finance committee is all ready stifling the subsidy. It will be stifled further, that is what conservatives, blue dog democrats and republicans do.

you are the one arguing any bill, right or wrong.

i am arguing no mandates without reduced costs.

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September 3, 2009 8:09 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Yeah, I hear you Indie Pro- that's why I just called Economides an "asshole" from the get go and moved on. Thanks for fighting the good fight though. I'm too tired of these corporatist, centrist, assholes destroying anything and everything good the Democrats USED to stand for. Enablers and apologists, the lot of them.

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September 3, 2009 10:21 PM    in reply to josephcast

You called me an asshole because you are a intellectual coward.

You want a public option. I want universal access and lower costs by any means necessary.

You think the only way to lower costs is hitting the insurance companies; I know that this is a minor issue in the level and growth of costs of health care. I am all for whacking insurance companies, I'd be happy to get rid of them altogether, but that a distraction.

The problem we are having is this. You think changing the governance of insurance will lower costs sufficiently. I think if the public option works like Medicare then we will have the same issues controlling costs as Medicare. I think we need to change the efficiency of health care delivery system. Put another way you want Medicare for all and I want Mayo Clinic care for all.

I'll go ahead and assume you think you can lower costs just by reducing reimbursement rates. I know that providers make up for lower rates by increasing intensity. I know we reward growth of efficient, high quality, integrated,organized care delivery.

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September 4, 2009 9:50 AM    in reply to Economides

Thanks for saying it so I didn't have to. Tilting at those sorts of windmills can be exhausting.

Had the democratic party used your methodology and positioning, this bill would have already been signed with a wide margin like most of the other revolutionary bills from our not too distant past.

Great commentary.

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rb6

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September 3, 2009 5:00 PM    in reply to Economides

This is true, but the problem I have with no "PO" is that there is virtually nothing that I have seen in any of the bills that even begins to get to this point.

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September 3, 2009 3:05 PM    in reply to Economides

I think progressives simply want the public option because this administration has blown us off on so much else. Just give it to us, whether you agree or not.

Obama needs to decide if he wants history to remember him as a Roosevelt or a Carter. The time to be nice is over.

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September 3, 2009 4:02 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Here's the thing. You know that. Bob Reich knows that. Even I know that.

But most people don't know a goddamned thing until it repeatedly smacks them in the face with a 2x4. Which is why I'm coming to the conclusion that if we can't get a public option in this bill, the only way we will get one is to pass the bill without it and and with a mandate (and subsidies) and let people see it actually happening. Let the insurers feed on the government teat for a couple of years so that they actually understand that, yes, we were right.

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September 4, 2009 9:52 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Or the legislation might actually work and that energy can be spent reforming Medicare instead?

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September 3, 2009 2:21 PM    in reply to Economides

I think you make a good point. The "simple" threat of the public option could theoretically do what an actual public option would do, at a fraction of the cost it would take to create the public option. Ultimately, it really depends on how the trigger is designed.

Furthermore, regardless of what's done -- regular public option, trigger, co-ops, none of the above -- this isn't the final say on healthcare. It will continue to be tweaked over the coming years, assuming they get this first step right, or at least "right enough" that the program is too popular (like Medicare is today) that even hinting at rolling it back becomes political liability.

I know that's not popular viewpoint. But I think it would work.

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September 3, 2009 3:06 PM    in reply to hewhohasnoname

Well it worked in Wisconsin, by why would we bother appealing to actual evidence when hysterics, bombast and mortal threats are more entertaining?

The problem with the public option is that it all depends on how it works. If it works like Medicare then we will not have solved the health care cost issue. There a major revisions to how we pay for care that are needed under Medicare and Medicaid that would ultimately have a huge effect on the underlying way we deliver health care which is what drives costs. So yeah, public option or not, getting this right is a long complicated process.

I find it weird that the public option crowd refuses to yell just as loudly for comparative effectiveness; and delivery system reform. It's not gonna happen by itself.

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September 3, 2009 5:04 PM    in reply to Economides

It's because the public option is widely seen as the first step toward a single-payer system, which most Progressives prefer.

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September 4, 2009 1:58 AM    in reply to Economides

I agree that its not going to happen by itself. But we need both Public Option and Delivery reform, and fighting for Public Option right now takes everything we have. Delivery reform will have to wait.

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September 4, 2009 9:55 AM    in reply to CharlesBrown

We already have a public option. It is the Medicare/Medicaid system and is in desperate need of repair.

Why not kill the "public option" in this bill as a way of magnanimous compromise and then immediately reintroduce the idea as Medicare reform, which a plurality of the citizenry support if the idea is to make it more stable?

Too strategic for the tactically-myopic "progressive" standing in the way of progress.

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September 3, 2009 1:45 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Well, I certainly think that if the government is going to require something, it has to provide it for free. I haven't thought too hard about it, but I really wonder how it is that the government could REQUIRE one to buy insurance. It just doesn't sound Constitutional. And I can't even *imagine* the backlash if people would be required, by force of law, to purchase insurance from a private provider. Purchase insurance or what? Will there be a criminal penalty? Go to jail? Will the government purchase it for you and send you a bill? Then what? Levy on your assets? What a disaster. Trust me, I am no pro-liberty Ron Paul wacko, but this even gets me going.

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September 3, 2009 1:49 PM    in reply to eric the red

In Texas Automobile Insurance is required.

If I remember correctly, if you do not have Health Insurance, you will be fined by the IRS.

This provision MUST GO, with no Robust Public Option.

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September 3, 2009 1:54 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Mandatory automobile insurance is different.

For starters, no one says you *have* to own an car.

Secondly, the insurance that is mandated is *liability*, that is you are covered for the damages you cause to someone else's car or person, not to your own.

A personal mandate, without a public option and without a business mandate may or may not be dumb policy but it sure as hell is dumb politics.

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September 3, 2009 2:09 PM    in reply to agio

In Austin, Texas you need a car. In most places, without a good public transportation system, you need a car. Houston, Dallas, Etc.

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September 3, 2009 3:14 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Well, maybe as a *practical* matter you need a car, but there is no law saying you have to buy a car. If there was a law saying that car ownership was mandatory, the analogy would be sound.

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September 3, 2009 3:06 PM    in reply to agio

Yesterday I saw someone referencing cases of settled law which would seem to confirm that a mandate for health insurance is not legal. Can't say that I know but it certainly made me wonder.

The main point is that without an affordable option, a mandate is a HUGE disaster.

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September 3, 2009 3:24 PM    in reply to TaraV

I haven't put a lot of thought into it, but it does strike me as unconstitutional. At a minimum, there are constitutional arguments. Certainly you would get challenges based upon Due Process grounds. While not a supporter of Economic Due Process arguments, this one seems pretty compelling to me. You would get first amendment arguments (for example, some people might argue that there religion does not allow them medical care of one sort or the other). There would probably be an argument that it is an unconstitutional tax.

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September 3, 2009 3:34 PM    in reply to eric the red

The specific cases were in the comments of a recent Ezra Klein posting. It had to do with the commerce clause.

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September 3, 2009 3:11 PM    in reply to agio

Bingo. There is nothing wrong with the government requiring you to buy insurance or comply with regulations when you are doing something voluntary like driving or selling something, etc. It is a condition of doing those things. But to require me to buy insurance just for happening to LIVE in this country is a step to far. Imagine, being fined or imprisoned for failing to purchase insurance. Yikes.

Of course, the simple solution is to require everyone to either buy insurance or enroll in a public plan. Kind of like school. You have to send your kids to school. If you want to pay for private school, then you can do that. But, we also offer public schools that you can attend for free.

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September 3, 2009 3:41 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Auto insurance is required in most states, but you can choose not to drive a car. If health insurance is required by law, what is your choice, get it or death? Obama made promises during the campaign. I think his base would cut him some slack if it appeared that he had earnestly tried to get the public option but simply could not deliver. But, what we have seen is a disengaged President that is willing to give things away to the insurance industry and big pharma, that is willing to play nice with the GOP that only wants to obstruct, and that is willing to cave in to a handful of corporate blue dogs, but is unwilling to fight for the people that handed him the Presidency. We are not stupid. We know when we are being played. If this is the way it goes down, I believe there will be enough of us withholding future support to cost Obama and the Party dearly. You can rake in a lot of corporate money and support, but if your voters don't show up on election day it doesn't really matter how much corporate money you raised or what favors you gave to get it.

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September 3, 2009 2:08 PM    in reply to eric the red

Free, like Social Security and Medicare,public schools... like that kind of free? Or free like national defense? Or free like the national parks?...they are free, right. Or do you mean free like health care in Europe. Totally free. Nobody pays. It costs nothing.

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September 3, 2009 3:16 PM    in reply to Economides

Yes, exactly. Provided by the government as a public good.

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September 3, 2009 3:30 PM    in reply to eric the red

Dude, someone is paying for that. The "public" in public good means that it is paid for by all of us. Not that it is free. Are we really having this discussion?

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September 3, 2009 3:35 PM    in reply to Economides

You are being deliberately obtuse. Nothing is free. What I mean, obviously, that the health coverage would be provided without cost to the individual. Just like a park or a public school or the national defense.

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September 3, 2009 4:02 PM    in reply to eric the red

What is the purpose of maintaining the fiction that it is "free" to the individual. This is a democracy. Why is that better than we are all in this together. We all pay, we all benefit. People support Social Security cause they paid there way, dammit, not cause some check just fell from the sky.

And a huge impediment to making significant progress on controlling cost is the illusion people have that they are "getting" health care from their employer. Actually they pay for it with their wages, and the major reason they are seeing their own income's stagnate is precisely because their employers are using all their productivity gains to pay the higher costs of the same old mediocre care. If people understood that better they'd be far less willing to stay with the status quo. Instead they are convince you are gonna take away something they now get for free.

Besides, there will always be some cost sharing otherwise the moral hazard gets out of hand. And you should go to a National Park sometime, they charge admission. And it's higher at the more popular Parks.

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September 3, 2009 2:09 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

At the heart of health reform are the regulations that prohibit insurers from turning away potential customers for pre-existing conditions. Without a mandate of any sort, that new regulation alone would put the reforms on the path to disaster. Afterall, what would keep people from simply opting out of insurance premiums altogether, until they actually develop a costly medical condition, when they could take advantage of the new regulations, and hop into the system without any previous contributions with their pre-existing condition?

Strong regulations, generous subsidies, individual mandates paired with employer mandates or play-or-pay provisions, plus a functioning health insurance exchange is all we need. The public option only theoretically provides more guarantee that the regulations will stick, but really isn't necessary if the regulations serve their purpose without a public plan (and they very well may). Scuttling health reform over the absence of a public plan would be folly.

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September 3, 2009 2:13 PM    in reply to seanh

The Public Option is the mechanism for reigning in costs. Not the exchange.

if one is to believe what the President is saying:

- Our healthcare is more expensive than the other similar countries.

- Costs are going to rise.

Then mandating insurance, and then giving up tax dollars to subsidize insurance is the worst plan yet.

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September 3, 2009 3:09 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

But isn't it true that other countries such as Switzerland and Holland operate without a public option and have managed to rein in their costs and provide universal coverage? Could that be where we're headed?

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September 3, 2009 3:21 PM    in reply to TaraV

In no way am I saying that a Public Option is the be all end all of anything.

Using the examples of different countries is excellent. I'm all for that.

that being said, the Public Option has always been billed as the piece of the legislation (all versions) that will lower costs. Give competition, whihc lowers costs.

The pubic option could be stripped of teeth and made useless, surely. That is why a robust Public Option is what we need, or it will be useless to rein in costs.

If we are gonna mandate insurance, there must be a mechanism to manage costs. Not everyone can afford insurance, and in no way should our tax dollars be spent to subsidize the insurance industry! Especially if our costs are out of control and rising!

If McCain's idea for Healthcare reform is awesome, then that's what the President needs to say.

If the current cost of heathcare is perfect as it is, as long as it doesn't grow anymore, and we'll just give tax dollars to the insurance companies to help them cover the poor, then that sounds like McCain's $5000 rebate idea.


The point was to bring costs down, and that is what made mandates possible.


You want reform, but no public option, then take mandates off the table as well.

Shouldn't that help the insurance industry find ways to save money? if they can't find a way to save money, then we'll put the mandates on a trigger, etc.

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September 3, 2009 3:34 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

I responded earlier to your post in more detail, but it was flagged for approval since it included a few links.

Can't speak for TaraV, but I suspect she was suggesting their are other ways to control health care costs -- "bending the cost curve," as Orszag says -- besides the public option. Fight for the public option, sure. But for Democrats for vote against a bill that includes cost-control measures (and even the Senate Finance Committee bill surely will), moves towards affordable universal coverage, and regulates insurance industry abuses out of existence would be an outrage.

I have no doubt Obama's wranglers, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi are all counting votes in the House and Senate. In the end, they may decide the public option simply can't pass. Rejecting the bill on that basis alone would prove Democrats are just as capable of the sort of narrow, purely-ideological thinking that the Limbaugh party thrives on.

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September 3, 2009 3:42 PM    in reply to seanh

If someone is offering an alternative to the public option that will bring down costs, I haven't seen it.

I've seen Coops thrown around. Coops have been looked at by the CBO, and they said Coops fail at offering competition to insurance companies that would lead to bringing down costs.

I'm open to other suggestions, but all I'm seeing is remove the public option.

This would be the sweetest deal for the insurance industry. That's why all those in the pocket of the insurance industry are fot removing the public option.

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September 3, 2009 4:02 PM    in reply to seanh

Just of the top of my head:

1) Health Information Technology. This is the most obvious source of savings, but will have a relatively small impact on the total cost. According to the CBO Director:

...Many analysts and policymakers believe that health IT is a necessary ingredient for improving the efficiency and quality of health care in the United States. Research does indicate that in some instances, health IT appears to have reduced the cost of providing health care, helped eliminate inappropriate services, and improved the quality of care. In general, however, health IT appears to be necessary but not sufficient to generate cost savings; that is, health IT can be an essential component of an effort to reduce cost (and improve quality), but by itself it typically does not produce a reduction in costs.

2) Pivoting away from employer-provided health insurance. Consumers of health care are shielded from the true cost of health care, since they aren't seeing the costs in their paycheck. In addition, insurers have little incentive to promote preventative and wellness care, since there's no guaranteed return on the investment. Since a customer will change providers when they switch jobs, promoting and paying for more preventative care might mean assuming huge costs for an individual that will likely be paying into a competing provider in the future. There are other examples of how employer-based insurance has twisted incentives, and contributed to rising health care costs that I can't think of at the moment. See the CBO again for an investigation of the savings prevention and wellness spending could provide (http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=345).

3) Compensating doctors and hospitals for patient care, instead of fee-for-service that provides an incentive for over-treatment. Getting these incentives right provides the greatest opportunity for real savings. Employee-provided insurance and fee-for-service compensation best explains the discrepancy between American health care costs and the lower costs in Western Europe. I'll need to track down the details, but I'm certain that even the Senate Finance Committee draft is supposed to include these sorts of new incentives, promoting patient care.

4) Promoting preventative care, instead of disease management.

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September 3, 2009 4:04 PM    in reply to seanh

I should also clarify that the Health Insurance Exchange is key to moving away from employer-based health insurance.

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September 3, 2009 4:14 PM    in reply to seanh

it's as if you have no concept of poor people.

Or giveaways to the insurance industry.

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September 3, 2009 4:24 PM    in reply to seanh

Like I said, generous subsidies are another key element of any reform. The Senate Finance Committee has talked about reducing subsidies to bring down the price tag for political reasons, but it would still provide for relatively generous subsidies. These subsidies would provide the necessary funds for the unemployed, underemployed, and self-employed to purchase insurance through the exchange in from one of the well-regulated private providers.

Health reform doesn't work without some sort of mandate. Barack Obama was wrong during the campaign to argue against mandates. Fortunately, he's come around.

Sending tax dollars to the insurance industry, without any meaningful way fo controlling costs is stupid. A bad idea. Not worth it. Not even close to a win.

I think real reform can rely on tough new regulations. The public plan would only serve to pressure private insurers, through the power of competition, to conform to these new regulations. Some believe the government could effectively enforce health care reform's new regulations without a public option. I'm one of those people. I also think there are serious potential pitfalls inherent in the design of the public option. For example, the public plan could very well be assuming a higher-risk pool of customers than a traditional private-insurer, and without the negotiating power of a Medicare-style program to stay competitive (the so called "weak" public option would not be allowed to pay medicare-level rates), the program could be doomed to failure. A collapse of the public plan under excessive cost-overruns could be a political landmine for future Democrats.

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September 3, 2009 4:12 PM    in reply to seanh

I applaud you for atleast attempting to show where some savings are coming from, but you must admit how anemic this is as the thrust for lowering healthcare costs.

part of a plan, yes. But nothing like competition. Nothing like a public plan with the teeth to negotiate. Not even close.


Sending tax dollars to the insurance industry, without any meaningful way fo controlling costs is stupid. A bad idea. Not worth it. Not even close to a win.

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September 3, 2009 12:56 PM   

why?

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September 3, 2009 1:12 PM    in reply to Frog Leg

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September 3, 2009 1:02 PM   

Key phrases from Brian:
"Though I can not confirm Grijalva's claims entirely"
"number of off-the-record conversations"
"Low-level White House officials have reached out"
"which strikes some"
"Many believe"
"That said, the process is still very fluid"

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September 3, 2009 1:14 PM    in reply to fbacon2

Agreed, I see little new here to add to yesterday's round getting our panties in bunch.

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September 3, 2009 1:29 PM    in reply to fbacon2

Agreed.
This is approaching "church of the savvy" stuff.
Attribute your sourcing, get verification, be a journalist.

That being said: If there is any truth to this, the Democratic party is dead.

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September 3, 2009 1:05 PM   

If a public option is on a trigger, then so is my vote. If the the public option doesn't trigger, neither will my vote.

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September 3, 2009 1:41 PM    in reply to CranialRectalLoopback

If insurance companies limit premium increases to the rate of inflation then you will be unhappy?

You don't believe the trigger is a useful threat and yet we are supposed to take your personal threat as meaningful. You can't have it both ways.

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September 3, 2009 1:06 PM   

Message to White House: Please do not waste money sending emails to me.

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September 3, 2009 1:43 PM    in reply to TheraP

People who think the marginal cost of sending an email is significantly different than zero, shouldn't be surprised when no one cares what they think about something that is really, really important.

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September 3, 2009 1:07 PM   

But a White House official told the New York Times "It's so important to get a deal [that Obama] will do almost anything it takes to get one,"

This is exactly what concerns me. This bill is too important to "do almost anything". How did we get here?!? *sigh*

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September 3, 2009 1:46 PM    in reply to ohyeathatsright

Explain to me why the public option is more important than a law guaranteeing universal affordable health care for life?

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September 3, 2009 1:59 PM    in reply to Economides

Passing a law that says "everyone needs affordable health care for life" without some mechanism of making that possible won't help us very much.

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September 3, 2009 2:01 PM    in reply to Economides

They are mutually exclusive.

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September 3, 2009 3:41 PM    in reply to Economides

Fighting stoopid is becoming a full time job.

First, the universality comes from the regulations outlawing denial of coverage and from the subsidies to those who cannot afford coverage on their own.

Second, cost control is not at all guaranteed by a public option although it is a possible outcome if we are willing to change the way we pay for care as opposed to just lowering rates. We can already use these methods in the 50% of health care that the government already pays for to change the cost structure in the whole industry. That we haven't should give you pause that the public option will work the way you want it too. (will congress ignore necessary changes in the Public option the way it does in Medicare? Are we planning to pay for durable medical equipment under the PO the same way we do in Medicare?)

In Germany, Switzerland and Holland these two things are not mutually exclusive. And of course we are no where near those systems because 50% percent of our system is already public for goodness sake.

Look we can have a single payer system tomorrow that works as well as France's or we can have one that bankrupts us all. Form does not guarantee function.

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September 3, 2009 3:53 PM    in reply to Economides

being a dupe for the insurance industry is your full time job.

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September 3, 2009 4:21 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Tell me what percentage of our overall health care costs are going to insurance companies and what percent are going to the delivery system and drug/device manufacturers?

What percentage of the growth in health care cost is going to insurance companies and what to the other parties?

Why is there such rapid cost inflation and cost variation in our public insurance systems?

Where is the crisis in auto and life insurance?

I have no use for the insurers. They are just middlemen and they will largely be regulated out of existence, at least in the form we know. No denial of coverage, no rescission, no lifetime limits, no ducking competition. And because they are not the reason care is unaffordable I'd rather be spending my mental energy on figuring out what is and how we do something about it.

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September 3, 2009 4:32 PM    in reply to Economides

and yet here you, all over this thread

her you are arguing for subsidies to the insurance companies.

as long as their costs dont' rise above inflation! Forget all that other stuff we said about costs all ready being out of control.

Here you are, the champion

for giving tax dollars to insurance companies, and then bleeding other families who do not qualify for subsidies.

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September 3, 2009 4:49 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

We give subsidies to poor folks to buy soda from Coca-Cola, maybe we should eliminate food stamps, or better yet, start a public cola company. You tell me who is being subsidized by Pell grants, or the Earned Income Tax credit--the folks who get the money or those they buy stuff from.

If insurance companies can no longer profit off of choosing who they will insure then they will have to compete on the basis of creating the biggest risk pool and figuring out ways to limit their costs other than by denying coverage. Will they continue to take a few percentage pints off the top yes. Is that a loss to the system, probably unless people value some other aspect of the service they provide.

Some investment companies take high fees and then there is Fidelity.

But then you are missing the larger point which is that the insurance companies are beside the point. That is not why cost are going up. It's not why people are suffering.

Let's put everyone under Medicare tomorrow. Now explain to me why patients at UCLA will pay so much more for the same or worse care than those at the Cleveland Clinic. It has nothing to do with private insurance.

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September 3, 2009 5:11 PM    in reply to Economides

as much as you desperately want to shift the focus to some talking point you want to regurgitate, it ain't happening sparky.

The subsidy will not cover all families. The Senate Finance committee has all ready lowered it to 300%. They want it lower. But even where it is, families are left out.

The mandate is crap, if all we are doing is maintaining costs as they are now, which is what you've been clamoring all over this thread. Maintain costs.

You are screwing many hard working families so the president gets a bill through.

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September 3, 2009 10:57 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

Guaranteed issue, community rating, no lifetime caps are not the status quo. All those things have real value to anyone with insurance for whom one of their the biggest worries is that they suddenly lose the protection they thought they had.

A nationally accessible exchange is not the status quo to anyone buying insurance in a region with only one or two insurers.

Eliminating the cost of uncompensated care that is shifted to those with insurance is not the status quo.

Health care delivery reform, i.e. ditching fee-for service in Medicare for a value based approach is not the status quo. The public option is fine if it is designed correctly, but we, the public, already have leverage over 50% of the health care market. You think we can't use that to force lower costs?

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September 3, 2009 1:07 PM   

I'll say one thing about Republicans. Unlike Democrats, they understand the importance of strengthening their base.

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September 3, 2009 1:18 PM    in reply to Rich in NJ

Democrats ridicule their base.

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September 3, 2009 1:22 PM    in reply to Rich in NJ

They also stick together, no matter what.

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September 3, 2009 1:44 PM    in reply to Rich in NJ

By definition the base are the most loyal supporters. If you are willing to bolt the party then how can you be the base?

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September 3, 2009 2:09 PM    in reply to Economides

There is a reason that the base is so named. It's because the party's core principles are in line with those of its most loyal adherents. I'm beginning to think that the Democratic Party doesn't have core principles.

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September 3, 2009 1:11 PM   

It sounds to me that the public option has virtually no chance of passing the Senate - not even via reconciliation. This may be an acceptance of that reality.

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September 3, 2009 1:23 PM    in reply to mans_best_friend

There is no "reality" yet. The future is what we make it.

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September 3, 2009 2:12 PM    in reply to mans_best_friend

Then make those Democrats vote against it so that they will have to explain their vote and face the disapproval of the majority of the public that support it.

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September 3, 2009 1:18 PM   

Oh boy! I can't wait to be forced to buy expensive health insurance with high deductibles and 30% co-insurance! I guess I won't be able to vote for anyone in either party come November.

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September 3, 2009 1:54 PM    in reply to jbobzilla

A health plan with high deductibles and 30% co-insurance on the exchange will be dirt cheap. If you have evidence to the contrary please share it. otherwise you need to learn more stuff.

Hysteria is poor substitute for reason. Remember when Democrats used to boast they were the reality-based community.

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September 3, 2009 2:07 PM    in reply to Economides

First, you need to support your position.

Second, the insurance you describe would still cause most people to become bankrupt with a major illness. The point of insurance is to prevent economic catastrophe, not to make corporations more wealthy.

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September 3, 2009 2:20 PM    in reply to asdf

First, the less the insurance company is obliged to pay the cheaper the price of the policy. Period. High deductible, and 30% co-pay is cheap for insurance companies to offer. (If you insist we can go some where on line and actually price some policy options)

Second, most policies with a high deductible still pay 100% of costs after some point (e.g. $5000), i.e. they have catastrophic coverage. If they did not then you would pay even less. Some of these plans now have a lifetime limit although the legislation as I understand it would outlaw that.

Third, I can't imagine a situation where this single plan is the only option. You could always buy a lower deductible or a lower copay. Or you could join an HMO and have lower out-of pocket in return for staying in network,. or whatever.

By the way, how many people here know that Medicare has no catastrophic coverage. You have to buy supplemental insurance from a private provider to get it (or be poor enough that Medicaid provides it).

For some reason people seem to think the public option can provide unlimited benefits at no cost. How is that possible? It may be cheaper than it's for profit version, but you still have to follow actuarial logic.

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September 3, 2009 2:50 PM    in reply to Economides

You're an asshole that cannot understand that people in this country struggle to pay for insurance, any insurance, let alone- good insurance. Shorter: you're an asshole. End of story.

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September 3, 2009 3:19 PM    in reply to josephcast

Wow, someone tries to use logic and reality in their argument and you call them names. And he's on your side! Can't imagine what you call folks on the other side.

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September 3, 2009 3:22 PM    in reply to TaraV

He is most certainly not "on my side".

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September 3, 2009 3:39 PM    in reply to josephcast

Well, he's on the side of reform but I guess that's not enough for you.

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September 3, 2009 3:43 PM    in reply to TaraV

Corporatists are never "on my side".

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September 3, 2009 3:41 PM    in reply to Economides

While you make perfect sense from a standpoint of policy development theory, you best be acutely aware that policy isn't legislated in a theoretical vacuum devoid of practical politics. And clearly, when it comes to political aspects of health care reform, you aren't seeing the forest for the trees, and thus your otherwise-logical argument is lost in all the din.

Frankly, you're not going to get what you want any more than I am, because the Obama administration has decided that more of the same hopey / changey nebulism that got him into the White House is good enough to declare victory in actual policy development.

And unfortunately for the president, and for the rest of us by extension, he has failed to heed Hillary Clinton's admonition from last year's primaries, when she specifically warned him that while you campaign in poetry, you have to govern in prose.

In that regard, Obama hasn't been undone so much by the Republicans, as he has by his own laissez-faire attitude toward internal White House discipline, which has apparently given his wheeler-dealer chief-of-staff, Rahm Emanuel, carte blanche to cut deals with corporate actors that undermine and undercut the president's own political base. If the president is going to be at all effective from this point forward, he needs to stop Emanuel, et al., from betting against the house.

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September 3, 2009 3:54 PM    in reply to Donald from Hawaii

I am not convinced you understand the politics of this, at all. Turning this into a bloodbath over the public option is only satisfying to the extremes of both parties for whom ideology is a perfect substitute for actual policy change.

I mean, whatever, we all have opinions about this stuff. There's a lot about policy which matters more than opinion and preference. It has to work.

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September 3, 2009 4:59 PM    in reply to Donald from Hawaii

Couldn't agree more. Democrats that believe there are other methods to achieving meaningful, lasting health care reform without a public option are on your side.

By all means, fight for a public option. Democrats who really care about the public option are justified in threatening to kill reform if there's no public option, in hopes of getting the provision included.

In the end though, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect every single Democrat to vote in favor of a bill that introduces much needed new health care regulation, provides generous subsidies for the unemployed/underemployed/self-employed to purchase insurance, and includes once-in-a-generation cost-saving measures, even without a public option.

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September 3, 2009 5:00 PM    in reply to seanh

err, that was supposed to be a reply to Economides.

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September 3, 2009 11:06 PM    in reply to seanh

There's nothing wrong in policy terms with a public option. It's the politics that is suicidal.

We already have massive leverage in Medicare/nd medicaid to move use to a substantially lower cost system. But becuase they are public programs politics has kept us form getting there time after time. That's why threatening to blow up the house with everyone in it unless we get the public option when we don't even have the resolve to use Medicare and Medicaid to create a much more efficient health care delivery system is not a confidence booster.

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September 3, 2009 8:31 PM    in reply to Economides

What does this mean? High deductible and 30% will be dirt cheap. What good will it do me to have a "dirt cheap" policy if I can't afford to use it? If the bill really does set the co insurance at 30%, I will probably not be able to afford to use it except in emergencies. And emergencies will be very expensive and so either way I am screwed. Why would I choose a high deductible, 30% policy I can't afford to use? If the subsidies are below 300% I wouldn't quality. Even at 300% I'll be lucky to squeak in to any subsidy. Big deal I can't be excluded anymore with pre-existing conditions, but if I can't afford the coverage it's hardly worth it to be forced to pay for it. I really don't understand what you are saying here, so please explain.

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September 3, 2009 1:18 PM   

I just got an email from the Obama folks asking for a donation. I'd given money to the effort in the past. I told them that now I'm waiting first to see if there's a public option.

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September 3, 2009 1:21 PM    in reply to garp

Excellent! I've done the same.

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September 3, 2009 1:32 PM    in reply to wbgonne

Same here.

- FTF

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September 3, 2009 1:20 PM   

How did we get to the point where Olympia Snowe is writing Obama's signature bill??

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September 3, 2009 1:22 PM    in reply to impik

Because, apparently, the Democrats cannot grasp that we are no longer living on Planet Cheney.

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September 3, 2009 1:23 PM   

And Progressives may disappoint Obama by viting down the piece fo crap bill that is left.

What a disappointing president.

No hope for any change. Just more of the same.

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September 3, 2009 1:48 PM    in reply to Tom Wells

Did you expect him to hand it to you on a silver platter?


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September 3, 2009 1:48 PM    in reply to Tom Wells

Not any more disappointing than an electorate that doesn't know anything about policy.

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September 3, 2009 1:24 PM   

Schakowsky on NPR this morning said that a public option in the final bill is not "a make it or break it" for her to vote for it.
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=112489187&m=112484593

The Clintons couldn't pass health care reform because they passed NAFTA first and so they lost their base for everything else.

Max Baucus says that in order to get "pre-existing conditions" off insurance policies, the insurance companies have to make it up in volume. That volume is mandates. This bill will be a bag of crap tied with a very yellow ribbon.

What might work is the "Mad as Hell Docs" with their Care-A-Van going from Portland, Oregon to Washington, D.C. Joining Doctors on strike will be far more effective than us writing letters and wringing our hands. http://www.madashelldoctors.com/

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September 3, 2009 1:24 PM   

Ugh, can we stop with all the gossiping yet? Suzie passed me a note at lunch that said progressives will LOVE the speech, OK??? Nyah nyah boo boo. Jeez.

Though I can not confirm Grijalva's claims ... it's clear that many progressives are preparing themselves to be disappointed ...
I mean, really. This is worthy of Drudge.

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September 3, 2009 1:25 PM   

WTF Obama you had a deal. You had a royal flush and you folded like beaten bitch. Obama has a 60% approval rating, control of the house by wide margins and a super majority in the Senate and he let the powerless and feeble republicans play him like a cheap puppet.

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September 3, 2009 1:30 PM    in reply to pmb50

If it was sooo simple he would have had it already, right? or are we just going to gloss over the number of Dems in congress who are not falling in line?

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September 3, 2009 4:13 PM    in reply to VivaAmerica!

he could have brought them into line, or at least tried, when he had that near-70% approval rating. instead of playing soundly to the base and pressuring the blue dogs to get in line on this issue, he sucked up to them, and made attaining Republican support for the bill more important than the reform itself.

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September 3, 2009 7:24 PM    in reply to pmb50

Another fucking troll in the house. Aren't you lost? GTFOOH

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September 3, 2009 1:27 PM   

What did Obama not realize the republicans only goal is make healthcare Obama’s waterloo and he obliged happily and willingly.

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September 3, 2009 1:51 PM    in reply to pmb50

Yeah, what a clueless rube. You on the other hand, hold the key to governing, I'm certain, but he just won't listen.

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September 3, 2009 1:28 PM   

...Low-level White House officials have reached out to certain reform groups that have staked their ground on the need for a public option, I'm told, and warned them not to spend any more money advocating for the policy....

This only confirms what I thought when I read Theda Skocpol's post on TPMCafe yesterday,

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/02/how_progressives_should_weigh_compromises/

It so clearly sounded to me like it was following suggestions from a "talking points memo." Matter of fact, it made me think of how she rarely publishes here unless she's got some political talking points duties to attend to. The emphasis of her essays here are rarely analysis, they are more often along the lines of "what progressives should do now."

I've always wondered whether the title of this site was meant to be ironic or not. More and more I think I was an idiot to think that could be the case rather than that it was created for doing talking points.

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September 3, 2009 1:51 PM    in reply to artappraiser

I recommend this comment.

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September 3, 2009 1:28 PM   

I'm sure NCSteve has a reasonable explanation for why these silly rumors cannot possibly be true... STEVE?!?!

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September 3, 2009 1:30 PM   

From Think Progress:

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said yesterday “that he would not vote for a health care bill that included a government-run option.” “There will be no shot at 60 votes, because I’m not the only one,” said Lieberman, adding that “if we start this out and three years from now a case can be made that the private market is not working effectively, I would support the public option.” [emphasis mine]

Asshole Joe, always protecting the best interests of the people, er, the Wealth Insurance industry.

There's already a trigger, folks. Unfortunately it's attached to a gun that's pointed at America's head.

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September 3, 2009 2:01 PM    in reply to tiowally

Sen. Lieberman (I-Piece of shit) is clearly in favor of the Snowe "trigger" option. I'm sure it has nothing to do with who donates to his campaign coffers.

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September 3, 2009 2:03 PM    in reply to tiowally

Stipulating that Lieberman is a first grade asshole, why would you not take the deal where that commitment into written into law.

In fact, in some ways it is the perfect set-up. If insurance companies continue to raise rates beyond what is reasonable then you have all these folks delineating in advance that a government run plan is fine. If rates go up then the support for what you want is increased dramatically. If rates don;t go up, then....what was the point of the public option.


Oh yeah. What happens when we find out that in fact insurance companies are not the reason costs are going up in the first place?

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September 3, 2009 3:09 PM    in reply to Economides

But insurance costs are already way too high . . . the reason the health insurers don't mind triggers (at least compared to a public option) is that they almost certainly won't require premiums to ever come down and because the insurers will get added business volume (all the currently uninsured forced/subsidized to buy insurance under HC reform) that would have gone (at least in part) to the government under a public option-containing plan.

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