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After Tense Health Care Discussion, Dems Predict Unanimity On Reform
Brian Beutler | October 15, 2009, 2:52PM
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Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)
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After what Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) indicated was a tense health care discussion, Senate health care leaders declared, confidently, that the overhaul package that comes to the floor will earn every Democratic vote. However, they also made clear that the ultimate decision maker on key questions like the public option is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
"Reid's making these decisions ultimately, and I think he's listening and...I feel good about it," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
"Conrad spoke out for co-ops," Brown said, "six or seven people spoke out for [the public option]," adding later that the pro-public option senators were articulating a policy preference, and not pressuring Reid to act one way or another as he weaves two competing Senate bills together. Nobody, he says, spoke out against a public plan.
Brown's confidence springs from a belief that conservative Democrats do not want to be held responsible for killing reform. "No Democrat wants to be on the wrong side of history and vote on a procedural vote to kill the most important domestic vote of their careers," Brown said.
But Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus went even further and suggested that every Democrat would ultimately vote for the final bill.
"It's clear we're going to pass health care reform this year," Baucus told reporters. "Every Democrat will vote for...health care reform and I hope that some Republicans will as well."
That belief was echoed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who, without getting specific, said that he recently held discussions with two Republican senators other than Olympia Snowe.
"I've spoken to two other Republicans today on health care...we're not writing off the Republicans," he said. Reid has said, though, that if no Republicans ultimately support reform, Democrats will pass a bill alone.
The difference between Brown's prediction and Baucus' could be crucial. A health care bill that has enough support to win the support of every Democrat will likely have a harder time retaining a public option than will a bill that keeps Democrats united against a filibuster, but then loses some support on the final vote.
Asked how the public option would fare in all this, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) kept it short. "We're doing well," Dodd said.
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Indie Pro
October 15, 2009 3:03 PM
So, no pressure from Senate Dems, according to this report, and no pressure from Obama.
Lots of pressure from the Insurance Lobby, I bet.
Everyone is backing off and letting Reid do what he wants.
In no way does that excuse any of them. Silence is approval afterall.
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Indie Pro
October 15, 2009 3:10 PM in reply to Indie Pro
perhaps all of this, no one is pressuring Reid, is a chance for Reid to do the correct thing and include a good Public Option, and look like he did it all on his own, like a big boy.
There. I'm being optimistic.
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Schmed
October 15, 2009 3:25 PM in reply to Indie Pro
You sure are. Maybe someone will slip some of this stuff into his tea so that he can grow a spine.
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Indie Pro
October 15, 2009 3:30 PM in reply to Schmed
hilarious!
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 3:26 PM
Lieberman isn't a democrat
Nate Silver thinks he's flirting with political suicide if he votes against cloture
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/lieberman-flirting-with-political.html
Half of me screaming "JumpMentum!"
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 15, 2009 3:53 PM in reply to johnmccsf
You took the words out of my . . . um . . . fingers. He's been taking the "moderate" Republican line consistently--going too fast, there's a recession on, get it right, fatally flawed, blah de blah de blah--since July and he hasn't walked those comments back. On the contrary, he just got finished with another round of it.
Lieberman is a total narcissist. He sees no distinction between what he wants to do because he wants to do it, what's right and what's in his self-interest. All are the same to him. And why shouldn't he think that way? He's never once suffered any consquences for his endless betrayals and the failed efforts to make him suffer some have only fueled his vindictive self-rightousness.
Somedoddy better come down hard on the other Senator from Connecticut because he's sharpening up that knife he so reguarly sticks in Democrats' backs.
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 4:01 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
I think he's going to come around. Understand I am no Lieberman follower, no Kleefeld to Bachmann by any means, but Joe's a political klutz and putz
Over the past couple weeks he's appeared twice on Fox spouting the insurance line ...each a feckless flop...after Feingold was brought back on the reservation at his committee's one day czar hearing, Mentum threatened to hold one of his own
Today he was seen in NOLA beaming beside the President
He's looking for attention and he's not getting any
My heart says otherwise, but my head - he'll come along quietly on cloture
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mans_best_friend
October 15, 2009 4:10 PM in reply to johnmccsf
The sands on Joe's leverage as the 60th vote are running out. After the 2010 election, whether the Dems gain or lose seats in the Senate, his vote won't mean nearly as much. He got a break this time around, but committee chairmanships are assigned anew in 2011, and I wouldn't expect Obama to save his skin next time around if he screws up his centerpiece legislation. Obama should call Joe in and explain the facts to him. CT is home to some big insurance companies and Joe's trying to suck up. That's fine. But when it comes to pushing that voting button, he's better think twice about casting a Nay vote.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 15, 2009 4:26 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Sheesh, again with the assuming of a rational actor model. I hope your right. ?But, upon what basis would anyone in Joe's position, much less a self rightous, self-absorbed ahole like the ahole himself, assume that anyone was going to follow through on threats of consequences at this point? Lots of people figured he'd do the right thing and back off on his rather openly laid plans to take a second bite at the apple if Lamont beat him in the primary.
The man is married to a woman who's a lobbyist for the health and phramaceutical industry and who's been hip deep in that muck for years. He has been doing their bidding his whole career. No one's been focusing on him because they've been obsessing on Nelson, Conrad, Landrieu and Lincoln.
Lieberman's always with the Dems when they don't need him, but the more important a vote, the more likely he is to screw them.
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mans_best_friend
October 15, 2009 5:14 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
There is one person who can have credibility on a threat of consequences: Barack Obama. Joe may be crazy but he's not stupid. Even he can see that it was probably only Obama's intercession that saved his committee chairmanship last time. If Obama makes it crystal clear that he's not going to save him next time, I think Joe will do what's best for Joe, which is to talk big but vote for cloture. His vote may not be needed on the final bill, so if he wants to vote no to please his corporate masters, it won't matter. But if it's his vote that sinks Obama's signature accomplishment, he'll be lucky to be chairman of the spittoon-emptying committee.
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cawleybo
October 15, 2009 6:40 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Excuse me but you're logic rests on one very important assumption that I'm not convinced is valid. Namely, that Barack Obama really gives two hoots about a robust public option.
As President, he has never come out forcefully for a strong public option. He's called it a good idea; that's about it. My guess is that his overriding goal is to get (something he can call) health care reform. Whether that involves a public option (or even good reform) ... we'll see.
Given the confidence expressed by the likes of Baucus and the optimisim that republican votes could still be in play, that leaves two very viable options beside HCR with a strong PO: HCR with a weak PO (POINO?)or HCR with no PO.
My guess is that he would call either one of them HCR and proudly stick the feather in his cap.
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jimbomoron
October 15, 2009 4:56 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Here's how I see it, Goofy:
Democrats have gotten farther than they ever have with universal health insurance. I don't think Joe Lieberman, for all the Democratic causes he's fought for -- his votes for the Clinton deficit reduction package, his votes against the Bush tax cuts, his votes for the stimulus, his votes to preserve ANWR, his votes for reproductive choice, his votes against the Flag Desecration and Balanced Budget Amendments, etc. -- wants to go down in party history as the Bill Buckner of the biggest Democratic Party cause over the last 60 years.
For that matter, I don't think any Democrat wants to go down in party history as the Bill Buckner of the biggest Democratic Party cause over the last 60 years.
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CT Voter
October 15, 2009 4:28 PM in reply to johnmccsf
I don't understand how ya'll can say such nasty things about Joe "He's with us on all the really important things--well, ok, many of the really important things---actually, only if it's an odd-numbered month" Lieberman.
Man's a patriot. Can't you see that?
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CT Voter
October 15, 2009 4:32 PM in reply to CT Voter
And I'd just like to add, appropos of nothing, that it's bleeping SNOWING here in CT.
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rwc
October 15, 2009 4:50 PM in reply to johnmccsf
is there any provision in Conn. law for a recall? 2012 is a long time away and who knows how much damage he can wreak until then. And while I would like nothing better than to see him repudiated at the polls in 2012, I fully expect him to simply retire if there is any chance he might lose and keep his ego fully intact.
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CT Voter
October 15, 2009 4:59 PM in reply to rwc
No recall possible. We're stuck with Joememtum until 2012.
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 3:27 PM
And don't forget to Call Congress!
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hcsignon?source=vic
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Gator_fan
October 15, 2009 3:32 PM
It sounds to me that no one wants to present a divided caucus that Republicans can take advantage of in public. But, it sounds good. And with Pelosi going for a roboust public option set to Medicare rates that leaves them something to give in when it goes to conference.
I feel good about this. I think there are enough liberals/progressives pushing for this that we're going to make it in the end thanks to grassroot fighters like FDL, OpenLeft, and MoveOn.
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 3:39 PM in reply to Gator_fan
That's right. The best thing Reid can do to advance the cause is to keep Senators away from microphones
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 3:40 PM in reply to johnmccsf
Don't have anything nice to say - STFU
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CT Voter
October 15, 2009 4:07 PM in reply to johnmccsf
The best thing Reid can do to advance the cause is to keep Senators away from microphones
Good luck with that.
Chuck Schumer would wither away in the face of all that neglect.
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mans_best_friend
October 15, 2009 3:34 PM
Reminds me of an old saying:
"Theoretically, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there's a big difference."
In theory, it's up to Reid what gets into the final bill. But only in theory. In practice, Reid can put a robust PO into the final bill, but he has little leverage to make individual Senators vote for it, so his hands aren't completely free to do what he wants. Reid doesn't have nearly the power that some people seem to think. He has to thread a very small needle in order to craft a bill that will pass.
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Lestatdelc
October 15, 2009 5:53 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
We only need 50 votes on the actual bill. It is getting a unified 60 on cloture that matters.
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johnmccsf
October 15, 2009 3:44 PM
Bringing in the sheaves
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLgy_wFfjZU
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CT Voter
October 15, 2009 3:50 PM
You know what? They don't need every Democrat voting for the legislation.
They just have to vote for cloture. Why is this rarely discussed by MSM?
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Schmed
October 15, 2009 4:00 PM in reply to CT Voter
There's less drama when legislation is passed routinely.
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Seafarer
October 15, 2009 4:01 PM in reply to CT Voter
"Why is this rarely discussed by MSM?"
It's not as exciting.
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theWalrus
October 15, 2009 4:00 PM
I'm getting a little sick and tired of "predictions", he-said, she-said, and trial balloons. Without a robust public option this is all a dog and pony show. We'll know soon enough.
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rbeats
October 15, 2009 4:04 PM
And another 122 people died toady.
Thanks Harry, your doing a heck of a job.
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i8cupcakes
October 15, 2009 4:12 PM
Can someone please explain to me why the Republicans still matter?
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Schmed
October 15, 2009 4:14 PM in reply to i8cupcakes
To maintain a semblence of a two party system so that the Dems have a convenient excuse for not getting the people's work done as they advance their corporate masters' agenda.
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i8cupcakes
October 15, 2009 4:16 PM in reply to Schmed
We have a two party system?
Damn, could have fooled me!
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oleeb
October 15, 2009 4:17 PM in reply to Schmed
Hear! Hear!
Truer words were never spoken!
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mans_best_friend
October 15, 2009 4:20 PM in reply to i8cupcakes
Because a number of Democratic Senators represent rather reddish states. Strictly Democratic measures aren't too popular there. Having a few token Republican votes gives them some cover.
You might not like that explanation, but it is what it is.
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oleeb
October 15, 2009 4:16 PM
So many DC Democrats are so craven and weak it really is sickening. Who gives a damn if the Republicans vote for it? They ought to be happy none of them will vote for it so they can shove it up their asses in the elections. Instead, like a bunch of people with Stockholm Syndrome they look for the approval of those assholes. It's disgusting.
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i8cupcakes
October 15, 2009 4:16 PM in reply to oleeb
EXACTLY!
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Tanjaoui
October 15, 2009 4:18 PM
If Sherrod Brown feels good about it, I feel OK, too. I think he's a pretty reliable barometer of progressive sentiment, with a decent voting record. This could be a big step if it's written right. I will be very happy.
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tosh
October 15, 2009 4:19 PM
"It's clear we're going to pass health care reform this year," Baucus told reporters. "Every Democrat will vote for...health care reform and I hope that some Republicans will as well."
----------------------
What is Baucus smoking? It's almost certain that every Dem will vote for Cloture, as they will change the bill to the degree that even Blanche can vote for Cloture.
But plenty of Dems will be *allowed* to vote No for the Final Bill so they can take it back home.
Baucus is still chasing GOP'ers, when there's really only Snowe and potentially Collins out there.
This is all part of the Show to keep certain things out of the bill that certain people don't want in there.
John
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theone718
October 15, 2009 4:28 PM
By this time next year we won't remember how many Dems voted for the bill if it passes. No matter what I promise you I will remember Kent Conrad and Max Baucus though
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tosh
October 15, 2009 4:42 PM in reply to theone718
What people will remember is:
* it won't take effect until *after* the 2012 election because of the creative math
* household healthcare costs will continue to go up
* the majority of us will have no new choices regarding out healthcare
* the Dems passed it
This is why a lot of us argue that Good Policy becomes Good Politics for the Dems. Bad Policy because an albatross.
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Tanjaoui
October 15, 2009 7:28 PM in reply to tosh
Really good point we're all forgetting about, Tosh. The battle will continue even if the best P.O. is passed. It takes years to start and most people won't qualify. Things are going get much worse before they get better. Unemployment is probably going to stay at 10% for years. A lot of people are going to lose their insurance. (Of course, if they end up on Medicaid, maybe they'll be less frightened of a 'government takeover of health care' in the future.) And you can bet the insurance companies are going to raise their rates as soon as HCR is passed, and with great frequency thereafter, just to make it look like the Democratic legislation was a failure.
Speaking of the P.O., here's Uwe Reinhardt (I know: echos of Dr. Strangelove, but the man's very bright and doesn't seem to take himself too seriously) on how we might prevent it from becoming a dumping ground for all the patients the private insurers manage to avoid (and they will, I bet you).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoHF_7lZx_8&feature=channel
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sisterkevin
October 15, 2009 4:32 PM
Yes we'll all know soon. And it's not gonna be good. And then the white/black knight will come riding in when it's way too late, make another great speech and find some cover. Like the title says, "Profiles in Courage". God I hope there's enough brave men and women in Congress to drag this PO HCR across the finish line. It's on their backs to carry. The WH will offer bottled water and cheer from the sidelines.
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Tanjaoui
October 15, 2009 7:31 PM in reply to sisterkevin
Publicly. Hard to know where they stand in private meetings with individual Senators.
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Doc Magnus
October 15, 2009 4:38 PM
Get the damn thing passed. Fix it down the road. As was pointed out by several observers on this site, Social Security as enacted was not as it is today.
Failure to pass a bill, public option, co-op, opt-in/opt-out and Optimus Prime notwithstanding, not only cheats us all, it subtracts a needed accomplishment going into the 2010 midterms and hands the GOP a "failure flag" to wave.
Get the damn thing passed. And did I mention, Get the damn thing passed?
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Tanjaoui
October 15, 2009 7:35 PM in reply to Doc Magnus
Refer to Tosh above: a lot of it doesn't take effect until after 2010. In the meantime, insurance companies are going to make up for lost time by raising rates to prove it was all a failure. This isn't going to be pretty, even if we get what we want.
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willia451
October 15, 2009 4:38 PM
I don't believe it. I'll wait to see what the merged Bill looks like first. Then we'll see.
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superfly
October 15, 2009 4:41 PM
What the hell has gotten into Mike Ross of Arkansas?
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_10/020457.php
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superfly
October 15, 2009 4:42 PM
What the hell has gotten into Mike Ross of Arkansas?
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_10/020457.php
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Indie Pro
October 15, 2009 5:18 PM in reply to superfly
whoa!
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superfly
October 15, 2009 6:24 PM in reply to Indie Pro
That's what I thought.
He puts in the caveat that he isn't "endorsing" the idea in the Hill article, but you don't float that if you're not angling for something.
I think it's another tack for trying to the rural Medicare rates raised, much like Conrad seemed to be hinting at in the SFC before the vote, which is a trade I'm all for. I think there may be a real opening here, but it's also difficult to believe because it's Mike Ross, so who knows what's going on in his head.
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 4:51 PM
The P.O. is beginning to get good press and the insurance indusrty is acting stupid. Do you suppose some members of the Party of No will get wobbly in the knees?
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pablito
October 15, 2009 5:27 PM
UNLIKELY, not with shite like this. Olympia Snowe, the GOP's trojan horse on health care "reform," is driving way too much of the conversation:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/15/793607/-Trigger-This
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Indie Pro
October 15, 2009 6:01 PM in reply to pablito
I hope that is untrue.
it fits with the status quo of what Obama has done so far, but I hope it is not true. That triggered option is not a good public option, especially when it is only in certain states.
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sisterkevin
October 15, 2009 5:52 PM
"Get the damn thing passed" to fix it later idea will not work. This is one of those counter-intuitive moments where you stay strong as a group and lay the political consequences at the WH front door. The only way we get what we want and need is to box the President in. He comes out and takes the lead or he gets nothing. Only then will he commit and openly fight for a strong PO. Don't blink.
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bill
October 15, 2009 6:14 PM
God Bless the Democrats. Finally, a responsible citizen-centered decision - a public option. Not as helpful as single payer, but, at least, it offers an alternative to and competition with the money grubbing, profit mongers who deny coverage and milk folks dry. Thank you, Dems !
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 6:28 PM
There is no doubt that Obama and his staff are working behind the scenes. To those of us not privy to what is being said, it's a bit frustrating. He's running a tight ship with no leaks. We hear nothing about disagreements among his staff. That tells me something about his competence.
I know a lot of people want him to publicly insist on the P.O. That would be very high risk with no predictable outcome.
The quiet behind the scenes approach is safer and more likely to succeed.
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cawleybo
October 15, 2009 6:55 PM in reply to JoeTheMechanic
"would be very high risk with no predictable outcome"
Its called LEADERSHIP.
Besides, what makes you think he is even for a public option. Looks to me like he's gotten let others do the heavy lifting. Then he take credit for it if its popular or say "it was them" if its not.
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cawleybo
October 15, 2009 6:56 PM in reply to cawleybo
Sorry. The furnace isn't working and my cold fingers have gotten fat. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 7:34 PM in reply to cawleybo
"Looks to me like he's gotten let others do the heavy lifting."
Precisely. That's what it's supposed to look like.
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 7:08 PM in reply to cawleybo
Talk is cheap. The Clintons did that. It failed.
Real leadership is getting results. It's beginning to look like this thing is going in the right direction.
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 7:19 PM
Look, were not talking about George Bush. Obama actually can think for himself. Axlerod is no dummy. Rahm? uh.. He's useful to bounce ideas off of.
As a team, they know what they're doing.
They had to get Snowe. They did.
Now, it just gets better and better.
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Tanjaoui
October 15, 2009 8:00 PM in reply to JoeTheMechanic
I agree, and admit it's frustrating. You'd like to see him out in front, building support for a strong Public Option. But if he's for it (big if), that could backfire. It might turn people off the Public Option. It might make the suspicious. It could have a thousand unintended consequences. One thing that works is twisting Senators' arms in private, because there's little doubt he can make things happen for individual Senators...or prevent them from happening for them.
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JoeTheMechanic
October 15, 2009 8:13 PM in reply to Tanjaoui
Yes.
If this turns out like it looks like it's gonna turn out, we really do have a multi-dimensional chess player as our Prez.
He rope-a-doped the wingers, made the left rise up and demand the public option, peeled off a Republican, and now, Pelosi and Reid. Very impressive. (Of course, it ain't over till it's over, but it's lookin' pretty good.)
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