The CBO has weighed in with a preliminary cost estimate of the House's health care bill--and there are almost certainly some very happy people in House leadership.
At $894 billion, the bill's 10 year cost comes in a hair under President Obama's $900 billion red line. But, more politically and substantively important, the bill is projected to reduce the deficit in both the first 10 years and the second 10 years after enactment, just as Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) told me earlier today.
Over the first 10 years, revenues and savings are projected to exceed new spending (aka it reduces the deficit) by $104 billion. Projections into the following decade are, as CBO chief Doug Elmendorf always notes, very dicey. But Elmendorf says that, from 2020-2029, "the added revenues and cost savings are projected to grow slightly more rapidly than the cost of the coverage expansions." In other words, though the government will pay more and more each year in subsidies and expanded entitlements, it will be realizing savings and collecting revenues at a greater rate.
The Senate Finance Committee's health care bill was, likewise, a deficit reducer. But though it was projected to save less money in the first 10 years than is the House bill, those savings were projected to accelerate fairly rapidly in the second decade. The House's are projected to accelerate more slowly.
For political purposes, though, the key for Democrats is to put together a bill that isn't expected to blow up the deficit after a decade. It looks very much like both chambers will be able to accomplish that.
Where the House bill clearly outstrips the Senate Finance Committee's bill is in its projected coverage expansions. CBO projects that the House bill will bring insurance to 36 million more Americans, leaving 18 million people under the age of 65--and 12 million citizens--without health care. That's millions more than the Senate Finance Committee's bill. According to CBO, "the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 96 percent."

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Moose49
October 29, 2009 4:56 PM
This gives the Blue Dogs political cover for voting yes. Will they follow through? Or will they reveal themselves to be hypocritical shills for the insurance industry who could care less about the well-being of their constituents or the budget deficit?
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johnmccsf
October 29, 2009 4:57 PM in reply to Moose49
Now they can score the Senate bill....
I guess you've noticed the BDog refrain (even Lieberman) - "I'm concerned about the deficit"
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JeffB
October 29, 2009 9:04 PM in reply to johnmccsf
.
Is the CBO biased in favor of Health Care Reform?
http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=6394
.
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Larry Geater
October 30, 2009 7:37 AM in reply to JeffB
Reality is biased in favor of the public option.
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Joe Patriot
October 30, 2009 1:22 AM in reply to johnmccsf
Because the bill will put us broke. Duh, public health care equals higher taxes unless you live in poverty then this will probably be good for you. Is a free lunch really free if you have to give up your freedom to get it?
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melior
October 30, 2009 2:35 AM in reply to Joe Patriot
Reading comprehension FAIL.
"the bill is projected to reduce the deficit in both the first 10 years and the second 10 years after enactment"
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BlindBat
October 30, 2009 6:24 AM in reply to Joe Patriot
Sorry, I'm not clear on what freedom is given up. What do you mean?
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bjobotts2
October 29, 2009 8:47 PM in reply to Moose49
But this tells what this means to consumers...
"One consequence of not tying the public option to Medicare? The CBO predicts that average premiums will be higher in the public option than in private plans."-TPM
Then why would anyone go for the public option except those who are subsidized ...which means that if only subsidized clients are in the public option it will bankrupt it very quickly.
The senate wants to give a bill without a public option and the House gives us one that is doomed to failure...while private ins gets millions of new clients, and huge subsidies for those who can't afford to pay the premiums...and for this huge gift all the profiteers had to give up was recissions.
It was all so simple...just give Medicare for all... but that would negate the profiteers...the private ins who make billions from our HC...but congress caters more to the private ins than to the people.
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The BBQ Chicken Madness
October 29, 2009 5:14 PM
Ok, this may be a stupid question, but can someone please answer it anyways...
The House bill and the Senate bill both pay for Health Care Reform in different ways. The House bill reduces the deficit by $100 billion dollars, and let's just throw out a number of the Senate bill reduces it by $50 billion.
Why not combine both methods of paying for HCR into the final bill, and reduce the deficit by $150 billion?
I hear "we can tax Cadillac plans" OR "we can raise taxes on the wealthy" OR "we can do this" OR "that". Why not do a little bit of all of them? It spreads the necessary pain around a bit, and could end up reducing the deficit by even more in the long run.
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The BBQ Chicken Madness
October 29, 2009 5:15 PM in reply to The BBQ Chicken Madness
ps - I know the numbers aren't that clear cut. I'm talking conceptually.
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Moose49
October 29, 2009 5:29 PM in reply to The BBQ Chicken Madness
They could. And if they did so in order to raise subsidies to the point that every single American would truly be able to afford quality health insurance and get the percentage insured from 96 to 99 or 100, that would be great. I think the main reason it's off the table is that both the president and many in Congress arbitrarily decided the total cost of health care reform should be around $900 billion over 10 years. This is a stupid, irrational limit. The fact is, you could produce a bill well over $1 trillion that still reduce the deficit. But no, we have to hit an arbitrary number for no good reason.
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theone718
October 29, 2009 5:52 PM in reply to The BBQ Chicken Madness
I think in the end that is what's going to happen. They will piece it all together, noone will like everything that is in the bill, but it will be..not only an amazing achievement but a VAST improvement to what we have right now.
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Icon
October 29, 2009 5:19 PM
If I may say so, I find it sad that political analysts and budget wonks consider $6 billion, an amount of money so great it is unfathomable to most Americans, to be a 'hair'.
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Flybynite
October 29, 2009 5:41 PM in reply to Icon
Well, if you divide $6 billion by 300 million Americans, what does that leave you? Twenty bucks a head per year? To insure 36 million more Americans? You must be on one tight budget. Either that or you just like to complain.
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Icon
October 29, 2009 5:56 PM in reply to Flybynite
I'm not complaining about the bill. I'm complaining about the fact that the article seems to minimize the fact that $6 billion is a lot of money.
The bill in question I generally have a positive opinion of.
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fsudirectory
October 29, 2009 6:13 PM in reply to Icon
cant appease everyone -- an article is written from facts, not overtures to make people happy that they treated a big number as a big number
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lousgirl84
October 29, 2009 8:27 PM in reply to Icon
It is peanuts when you think how many billions we wasted on Iraq and are spending in Afghanistan and the Trillion dollar give away to big Pharma in 2006 b y Bush & Co.
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am4
October 29, 2009 9:32 PM in reply to Icon
You do realize that one company alone--Goldman Sachs--got $15 billion in taxpayers dollars in one transaction, the bailout of AIG, right? Over 200 billion taxpayer dollars to AIG in total. In one year, not ten years. Trillions of taxpayer dollars transfered and "lent" to Wall Street. And it's continuing and growing under Obama. And you're worried about $6 billion.
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mikedrevguy
October 29, 2009 5:26 PM
I've gotta say, though the cost analysis is saving $$$, I don't know that folks are going to be happy with it.
it's been projected that 90% of the US population would have no access to said bills - and of the 10% that do have access, a portion of them may not be able to afford the Public Option Ins.
is this how they're accounting for the 4% who would not be covered by said POI?
I'd like to begin hearing more about Wyden's proposal to open up the PO to be bought into by a larger percentage of persons and families, and make the real prospect of choice work to bring down the cost of health care.
IMHO
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Tanjaoui
October 29, 2009 5:53 PM in reply to mikedrevguy
I second that. Work on the principle of eligibility first, then cost. The bigger the pool, the greater the savings.
Of course it's not about cost or coverage, at this point, is it? It's about Senators placating their corporate patrons and the Administration desperate to say they passed landmark legislation.
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 10:57 AM in reply to mikedrevguy
"it's been projected that 90% of the US population would have no access to said bills - and of the 10% that do have access, a portion of them may not be able to afford the Public Option Ins. "
Yes lots of people are saying stuff like that, even people who actually are fairly well informed about health care generally. But it is totally wrong, a horrible failure in reading comprehension of CBO scoring.
These bills change health insurance for EVERYONE in the country. EVERY individual will have access to the Exchange and by 2015 almost all employers and 100% of those employers who have 100 employees or less. It is NOT true that only uninsured people have access to the Exchange and subsequently the PO and I don't care that some big reform names are pushing that. I mean there are even some Obama quotes that are misleading on this.
YOU. HAVE. TO. READ. THE. BILL. If that is you want to have a chance of understanding it. Which is why I stuck a link to the bill about half an hour after it was posted. http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/10/read-bill.html
About 98% of the indignation expressed by the Left is the product of incomplete or totally erroneous understanding of the actual bill provisions. You want to know why Dr. Howard Dean thinks both bills are pretty much ok as they are (though of course not perfect). Maybe because HE READ THE BILLS.
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johnmccsf
October 29, 2009 5:44 PM
HCAN California joins the fundraising push behind House bill
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lousgirl84
October 29, 2009 8:29 PM in reply to johnmccsf
That is good news. I think folks are finally seeing that while it may not be everything we wanted, it is still a good start and with Obama at the helm we can improve it over the next 8 years.
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tosh
October 29, 2009 5:45 PM
Where the House bill clearly outstrips the Senate Finance Committee's bill is in its projected coverage expansions. CBO projects that the House bill will bring insurance to 36 million more Americans, leaving 18 million people under the age of 65--and 12 million citizens--without health care. That's millions more than the Senate Finance Committee's bill. According to CBO, "the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 96 percent."
Where it outstrips the Senate bill are:
* covers more people
Which is what you're saying.
* Taxes The Rich vs Risking Taxing The Comon Man
Taxing people making $500K or couples making $1M is an easier sell in current shitty economic times than taxing the Cadillac Plans. It's too easy for people to get confused on whether they have a Cadillac Plan or not: most people don't have a real good understanding of how their plan opperates. $500K and $1M is a very easy number: 97% of the country makes less than that, and knows it by the pay stub and the 1040. Easier sell.
* Better Subsidies
More coverage at a better rate while still being able to sell it as a "deficit reducer" every bit as much as the Senate one.
John
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theone718
October 29, 2009 5:56 PM in reply to tosh
Taking those millionaires will like a trillion dollar hole in our budget. Me thinks they will take a little of both to create the revenue they need to pay for the bill. Richard Trumka was walking back his unequivocal opposition to taxing cadillac plans the other day.
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mans_best_friend
October 29, 2009 6:15 PM in reply to tosh
Taxing "Cadillac plans" won't generate much money because few people have "Cadillac plans". The only way to generate significant sums of money is to shift your definition of "Cadillac plans" downward to tax "Buick plans" and "pretty nice Chevy plans", i.e. onto middle class people who have better than average, though not exorbitant plans. Good luck selling that on the factory floor.
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theone718
October 29, 2009 6:36 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
I am going to say this with respect for you because I have seen your posts and I like you. You have no clue what you are talking about. The point of the Cadillac plan tax is....interesting enough to NOT TO HAVE TO USE THE TAX EVER. You see the ingeniousness of the Tax is that it incentivises employers not spend more money than they have to on their workers. Alot of employers just by plans because they either have the extra money to or they buy plans they aren't to....well informed about. Knowing that if you pay that much money for a plan you would be taxed employers would HAVE to by cheaper plans. The point is not to have these high priced plans taxed, it's that you are using a tax as a shield against employers who aren't paying attention to what they are purchasing and now getting more affordable HC. I agree it should be structured for people who have to actually buy those high priced plans because of their jobs and such so they aren't taxed but every wonk I respect says it is AS SUBSTANTIAL AS ANY COST CUTTING MEASURE PROPOSED.
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theone718
October 29, 2009 6:37 PM in reply to theone718
Man I should have used that edit button lol
I mean more money ON HEALTHCARE plans than they need to.
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jimbomoron
October 29, 2009 7:11 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Goofy,
You know I respect you, but I do have to disagree with you on the tax treatment of employer-provided health insurance.
I have a 45 percent marginal tax rate (income, employer and employee payroll, and state) and a 10-year-old diabetic child. Because I am lucky enough to get my health insurance through my employer, Uncle Sam subsidizes through the employer exclusion 45 percent of the cost of my health plan.
The waitress at the local diner who served you and me breakfast last Sunday morning also has a 10-year-old diabetic child. Unfortunately, her employer doesn't offer her health insurance, so she gets no tax subsidy (except the paltry medical expenses deduction if she itemizes) when she goes to ehealthinsurance.com, and purchases health insurance for her and her 10-year-old diabetic child.
In other words, the waitress's tax dollars are subsidizing my health insurance. Does this seem fair?
We are going to spend $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years on the tax subsidy for employer-provided health insurance. Surely we can find a more equitable way to spend the money than the way I just described.
I don't think it's too much to ask to someone with a 45 percent marginal tax rate and a $20,000 family plan that if you want to switch to a $16,000 plan, we'll continue to subsidize 45 percent of the costs. But if you want to keep your $20,000 plan, then we'll only subsidize 36 percent [45% * ($20K-$16K)/$20K] of the costs so the waitress with the diabetic child also gets a good percentage of her health insurance subsidized by the Federal government the way you enjoy.
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jimbomoron
October 29, 2009 7:21 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Goofy,
You know I respect you, but I do have to disagree with you on the tax treatment of employer-provided health insurance.
I have a 45 percent marginal tax rate (income, employer and employee payroll, and state) and a 10-year-old diabetic child. Because I am lucky enough to get my health insurance through my employer, Uncle Sam subsidizes through the employer exclusion 45 percent of the cost of my health plan.
The waitress at the local diner who served you and me breakfast last Sunday morning also has a 10-year-old diabetic child. Unfortunately, her employer doesn't offer her health insurance, so she gets no tax subsidy (except the paltry medical expenses deduction if she itemizes) when she goes to ehealthinsurance.com, and purchases health insurance for her and her 10-year-old diabetic child.
In other words, the waitress's tax dollars are subsidizing my health insurance. Does this seem fair?
We are going to spend $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years on the tax subsidy for employer-provided health insurance. Surely we can find a more equitable way to spend the money than the way I just described.
I don't think it's too much to ask to someone with a 45 percent marginal tax rate and a $20,000 family plan that if you want to switch to a $16,000 plan, we'll continue to subsidize 45 percent of the costs. But if you want to keep your $20,000 plan, then we'll only subsidize 36 percent [45% * ($20K-$16K)/$20K] of the costs so the waitress with the diabetic child also gets a good percentage of her health insurance subsidized by the Federal government the way you enjoy.
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calchala
October 29, 2009 6:00 PM
Politico says the CBO showed higher premiums on the public option versus private plans. Does that make sense to anyone? Though, they did say that 6 million people would enroll only.
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johnmccsf
October 29, 2009 6:49 PM in reply to calchala
I don't read Politico any more.
On its face, yes it could be so.
People easily lose sight of the fact that the Public Option would only cover a tiny slice of the public. Both the House and Senate bills limit the option to small business employees and to individuals who cannot get insurance. In terms of providing public coverage, the Medicaid provisions in the House bill are way more significant.
So it depends on which premiums you are talking about. Private insurer plans which big employers purchase probably would have lower premiums
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calchala
October 29, 2009 6:05 PM
Politico says the CBO showed higher premiums on the public option versus private plans. Does that make sense to anyone? Though, they did say that 6 million people would enroll only.
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Odel Roo
October 29, 2009 6:17 PM
Wooo hooo! 6 million are going to be on the plan! F'n aye!
That's gonna put a smack down on private insurers and really make my insurance cost drop like a rock.
Hot damn these folks in DC have this jammed up and jelly tight!
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johnmccsf
October 29, 2009 6:42 PM
Republicans Reading the Bill????
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calchala
October 29, 2009 6:49 PM
Politico says the CBO showed higher premiums on the public option versus private plans. Does that make sense to anyone? Though, they did say that 6 million people would enroll only.
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calchala
October 29, 2009 6:50 PM in reply to calchala
Sorry everybody, I don't know what happened to cause my comment three times.
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joecool
October 29, 2009 7:01 PM
I amazed how our society has been dazzled by the words "Save" and "Reduce". How does spending $900 billion save us anything? Anyone grasp how much money that really is?
And does anyone believe that the government, including the CBO, can predict budgets for the next 20 years? Heck, they can't even accurately estimate the revenue coming in for the next quarter. This is all a propaganda production to ram this government takeover down everyone's throats. Have another sip of Kool-Aid.
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theone718
October 29, 2009 8:41 PM in reply to joecool
Wow you must really hate facts.......or reality.......or sensability. Ever heard of the word "fix" or the word "efficiency" or the phrase "spend money to make money?"
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joecool
October 29, 2009 11:27 PM in reply to theone718
Come back and read this column a year from now, we'll see who's sensible - that is, if we're all still here.
Running the debt from 1 trillion to 3 trillion doesn't qualify as "spending money to make money". As you may have missed, the federal government does not produce any "product" as a way of MAKING money. They only "print" it, which takes all of our net worths down. And you really believe that our bureaucratic government is a model of efficiency? Since you felt it necessary to attack me personally, versus having a discussion of views, I believe you are the one out of touch with reality.
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joecool
October 29, 2009 11:31 PM in reply to theone718
And please show me, in specific pages of HR3200 where we will actually achieve "efficiency".
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 11:08 AM in reply to joecool
Well I could show you that. But the new bill is H.R.3962. Maybe we could start the discussion from the ACTUAL BILL under discussion?
The short answer is Medical Loss Ratios. Under the bill insurance companies will have to meet a minimum Medical Loss Ratio (i.e. money actually delivered to providers) that will vary by Exchange but will be in no case less than 85% (the industry average used to be above 90% but now has dipped below 80%). Meaning that everything on their end: profit, admin, salaries, marketing has to come out of 15% of every insurance dollar. Meaning no efficiency = no profits.
If you HAVE to use HR3200 you will find this provision in Sec 116.
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joecool
October 29, 2009 11:46 PM in reply to theone718
Oh wait! Efficiency is defined as "ability to accomplish a job with a minimum expenditure of time and effort". So when we have to RATION healthcare, and we all get less face time with our doctors, I guess you believe that is more "efficient". Sorry, I don't agree.
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 11:12 AM in reply to joecool
Joe in the context of the bill money spent on providers ALLOWS insurance companies to hit their mandated efficiency target. If they don't provide 85% of their dollars in services they have to rebate the difference. You got the whole thing backwards and that is not Cool at all.
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kenga
October 30, 2009 3:16 PM in reply to joecool
The question I guess you'd have to ask yourself, is whether a 72% increase over 10 years costs more or costs less than a 39% increase over those same 10 years.
In my world, if your current plan is going to cost 72% more in 10 years if you do nothing, getting the same coverage while only costing 39% more in 10 years is more economically efficient.
This isn't simply about what it's going to cost if we do X, Y, Z.
It is also about what it's going to cost if we DON'T.
The answer to that, is "More than if we do something."
It's that simple. I am on board with any plan that will save taxpayers money in the long run.
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Maritza
October 29, 2009 7:27 PM
The concern that CBO has is that only 6 million people will opt for the public option and those people will be the sickest and thus the premiums will be higher.
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Tanjaoui
October 29, 2009 7:50 PM in reply to Maritza
Uwe Reinhardt describes a system of pooling risk using formulas for assessing the relative health of each plan's subscribers. The plans that end up with younger, healthier members contribute to a fund that is drawn on by plans that have older or sicker members. In Germany this is how they share the cost associated with riskier patients. If the public option becomes a dumping ground for sick members, it doesn't stand a chance of success.
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 11:20 AM in reply to Tanjaoui
Both the old and new House Bills build this mechanism in by regulating Medical Loss Ratios. Though they don't use the dreaded words 'profit controls' that is what they are. Under these bills you cannot make money simply by insuring people who don't get hurt or sick. No health care delivered, no hitting your mandated MLR, end result - premium rebates.
Astonishing as it may be to some blog commenters and readers the people who write these bills both as members of Congress and as staff are as well informed and probably much more so than you are. If there seems to be a gaping hole in the legislation you really should be checking the bill language to see how they proposed to address it. Because the odds that they simply missed it are pretty small.
NEWS FLASH: Dingell didn't work on this issue for 50 years just so he would have a chance to sell your ass to the insurance companies. Try reading PRIOR to commenting (yes I know kind of an alien concept in much of the blogosphere).
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Indie Pro
October 29, 2009 11:13 PM
a public option only an insurance industry can love
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Dorn76
October 29, 2009 11:35 PM in reply to Indie Pro
I guess at this point whining is all you've got.
Hell, the bill isn't perfect. But tell me, how long did it take to get Medicare in its present form? Was that passed in one bill?
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Indie Pro
October 30, 2009 1:01 AM in reply to Dorn76
all you guys ever had is attacking me.
If you really want to marginalize me, try ignoring my comments.
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OldenGoldenDecoy
October 30, 2009 12:00 AM in reply to Indie Pro
Excuse me ... Indie Pro ... Hello Hello . . .
Did you notice your pant leg is wet?
~OGD~
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Indie Pro
October 30, 2009 1:01 AM in reply to OldenGoldenDecoy
what's this suppose to be?
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OldenGoldenDecoy
October 30, 2009 5:21 AM in reply to Indie Pro
Uhhh . . .
It should be quite obvious to such a perceptive individual as yourself.
When pissing, whining and moaning, the moaning and whining doesn't end up dribbling down your pant leg. Zip it!
Sheesh . . .
~OGD~
*Paddling thru the Cafe since June 2005*
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Indie Pro
October 30, 2009 8:50 AM in reply to OldenGoldenDecoy
ah, another internet bully. You fit in well around here.
Newsflash goofball: your internet tough guy act is impotent.
and if it is meant to silence me or shame me from offering comments or opinions it'll be unsuccessful as well.
offer a counter argument or STFU
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OldenGoldenDecoy
October 30, 2009 5:21 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Otay ... Buckwheat . . .
But, how wrong you are. I firmly believe in allowing all to voice their opinions. That way everybody knows what kind of genius or idiot their dealing with. Like you with your MO of dumping five word non sequiturs.
So... My counter argument is: TFB ...
And please change those pants. The odor of urea is hanging strong in the air.
~OGD~
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sisterkevin
October 30, 2009 12:10 AM
Nothing close to "robust" in this legislation. Can't get a staright/good/rational answer as to why those in need have to wait 4 years to reap the "benefits"? Please, no lame answers.
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willia451
October 30, 2009 2:20 AM in reply to sisterkevin
They ARE trying to do some things right away. As early as next year. Here is a link:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2009/10/29/what-will-health-care-reform-do-right-away/
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larue
October 30, 2009 4:00 AM
WTF? This is watered down policy and a giveaway to the insurers for a new captured pool of revenue.
I see NO progressive reform issues at hand of any real meaning, and only a total capitulation to corporate interests who will continue to escalate premiums, escalate costs of delivery, escalate costs of drugs and deny care and coverage one way or another, as 45,000 a year continue to die.
Anna Eshoo's amendment that Pelosi endorsed and passed is a giveaway to pharm for 12 years more of patent pending so that generics can't be brought to bear for the masses.
Jane Hamsher has an EXCELLENT post up at FDL for how the people who most need cancer drugs are going to die, because they got sold down the river. You or anyone you know got $140,000 a year to pay for life saving cancer drugs?
So those folks are sold out to die.
And taking HUGE amounts from Medicare and Medicaid? Cutting costs?
And now, negotiating rates with providers instead of Medicare+5%? More costs put into a system, that covers too few, to compete with private insurers? The private Insurers who will raise rates, (our own rates went up 20% with reduced benefits) and shift their needy patients off to the government plan, that won't cover everyone.
And in the end, the government plan is doomed to fail, and cost MORE, because of this shit reform?
Reform my ass, better we ask our reps and senators to KILL this reform.
Fat chance of that, huh? Fat cats win, and we die.
Bastids. All of them.
Harumph.
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willia451
October 30, 2009 4:58 AM in reply to larue
Nice Rant. You're right. It IS shit reform.
Now what?
No. I say, pass the shit reform.
The House Bill is the best we're going to get right now. We need to get behind it, push it through, and make it better later.
Hopefully we'll get a negotiated rates PO out of all this. Then, we'll change that to tie it to Medicare rates. Then, open up the PO for those outside the exchange that don't have insurance already. Then, push for single payer.
That's the way progressives have always done it. Get everything you can right now; make it better later.
That's what we've done with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, SCHIPS, you name it.
This will be no different.
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Indie Pro
October 30, 2009 8:55 AM in reply to willia451
how come single payer hasn't incrementally come out of medicare? How long has medicare been around?
How often is it attacked by consevatives and republicans with legislation designed to kill it?
The best thing to do is fight for the best legislation possible.
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 11:31 AM in reply to Indie Pro
Maybe because Medicare has some strict eligibility limits?
There is no way that Medicare can evolve absent some positive action by Congress to change those limits. On the other hand the Public Option can out compete private plans and so grow by accretion. The two situations are not the same.
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Odel Roo
October 30, 2009 7:21 AM
Ok... so if i get this right POTUS says we have a Health Care Crisis... 30 million uninsured! Must reform Health Care!
Article states "will bring insurance to 36 million more Americans, leaving 18 million people under the age of 65--and 12 million citizens--without health care."
Ummm fuzzy math here - After 1990 pages there are still 30 million not covered????? WTF?
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Bruce Webb
October 30, 2009 11:28 AM in reply to Odel Roo
Yes there is some fuzzy math but it is no your part. If you had done the really daring thing and actually LINKED to and READ the CBO letter you would have seen that they scored a current law projection of 54 million uninsured in 2019 and that this bill would reduce that by 36 million for a NET of 18 million uninsured divided in a ration of 3:2 illegal to legal residents.
Dude you got the sign wrong it is not 18 + 12 = 30 but 18-12 = 6 million. Now personally I don't grab the smelling salts at the thought of undocumented people being able to purchase insurance, I would open the Exchange to everyone, but politicians are working under the reality that they are, under HR3962 CBO projects that 96% of the legal non-elderly population or about 6 million will remain uninsured. And no matter how you slice it the number is not 30 million, you simply drove the wrong way down One Way Math Street.
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barryashe
October 30, 2009 8:20 AM
Well, well, well...Count another one in! Short translation of Sen. Kent Conrad's statement after the CBO study came out: I now have enough rhetorical cover and have shown enough concern about budgetary constraints to get on board the big train leaving the station. Conrad was welcomed on board the train by Reid and Baucus who had earlier gotten good seats with a view. That band of supposed holdouts is down to just Landrieu, Lincoln, Nelson, Bayh, and Lieberman. At this point I count 55 strong votes for HCR and counting. Looks like that personal chat with the President cleared Conrad's thinking.
Lest anyone suppose I think badly of Conrad or Baucus or especially Reid - I don't. They are with us now when it counts and that's all we ask. Now who will be the next to smell the roses and replace those goat's horns with a halo? Landrieu, Lieberman, .... Snowe? ....Voinovich? ....??????
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