A new poll from the right-wing Club For Growth, which is supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 special election, says that Hoffman is ahead in the three-way race -- and moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava in third place.
The numbers: Hoffman 31%, Democrat Bill Owens 27%, and Scozzafava 20%. The margin of error is ±5.66%.
This is contrary to other polls that have shown Owens in front, Scozzafava second, and Hoffman third. The Club points out that no information about the candidates was given before the ballot question, meaning that they did not try to prime the pump for Hoffman in the lead-up to asking people for their preferences.
From the pollster's analysis: "Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava's support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week."

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FreeRider
October 26, 2009 12:47 PM
If this Hoffman guy wins . . .
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Overreach THIS!
October 26, 2009 12:55 PM
There's obviously a power play going on here where the rightist extremists want to say, we are big player in who your Republican candidates are going to be, and the pre-existing arrangements for picking a candidate are going to have to move over. That's these people they are gunning for http://www.nrcc.org/, isn't it, the National Republican Campaign Committee? They've put Toomey in Pennsylvania (polling much better than predicted so far BTW), Rubio in Floria as opposed to the potential winning candidate Crist whom they despise, and now this thing.
This could be a bad omen for Romney, which must why he's out now campaigning for extreme right wingers to try to inoculate himself.
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Icon
October 26, 2009 1:09 PM
No information is given about their methodology. To be so far out of line with generally-respected pollsters, one has to ask if their sample even remotely resembles a random sample.
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FreeRider
October 26, 2009 1:13 PM in reply to Icon
300 people polled. Margin of error 5.66%. Likely voters, with CFG deciding who's likely to vote.
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dswx
October 26, 2009 1:20 PM in reply to FreeRider
Bingo! Very poor poll stats. Not that it matter to the undereducated Republican sheep.
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Xantar
October 26, 2009 1:29 PM in reply to dswx
Why exactly is TPM reporting on polls by Club for Growth? You might as well report Fox News polls seriously.
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Icon
October 26, 2009 1:41 PM in reply to Xantar
To be fair, Fox News sometimes has really competent polls depending on who they partner with.
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DrToast
October 26, 2009 1:44 PM in reply to Icon
For the most part, Fox News polls are reputable. The use a legitimate polling firm, Opinion Dynamics Corp., to do their work.
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DrToast
October 26, 2009 1:29 PM
I'm continuously amazed at how the two parties view polling.
The left uses polls to understand reality. The right uses fake polling in an attempt to shape reality.
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