Democrats already have their talking points ready for what's seeming more likely - that they will lose the governor's mansion in Virginia.

Activists on the ground and Democratic officials and campaign operatives from across the state are telling TPMDC they are losing hope in the final two weeks of the race between former attorney general Bob McDonnell (R) and state senator Creigh Deeds (D).

It's the most expensive race the Democratic Governors Association has ever run, spokeswoman Emily DeRose tells TPMDC. The DGA put in $3 million toward the Common Sense Virginia group before the primary to run against McDonnell, and then gave $1 million directly to Deeds. The DNC has pledged $6 million in total.

Here's what we know - Deeds is in serious trouble. He's bleeding support from Democrats who are worried about a lackluster campaign and think a McDonnell win seems inevitable.

But - there's a glimmer of hope in President Obama, who continues to attract massive crowds at political events, and would really like to pull out a victory in the state that put him over the top last fall.

The polls showing Deeds behind are capturing the preference of likely voters, which in most cases are identified by having voted several times. If Obama can help Deeds bring out core groups of his '08 winning coalition - young people and new black voters - it could make the difference.

With that in mind, now it's an all-out push from Democrats using the Obama talking points, with a big rally planned for Old Dominion University next Tuesday, ads on TV starring the president and robocalls blasting Obama supporters urging they help Deeds.

It wasn't clear at first how much of his own political capital Obama would spend on Deeds, who he didn't know personally before this race. But the last few days have proven it's a major effort.

"This year, right now, it all comes down to you," Obama told Virginia voters in an email yesterday.

Terry McAuliffe, who lost to Deeds during the Democratic primary, said today on MSNBC's Morning Joe that Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964 and thinks Deeds can still win if he gets "fired up" Obama voters to the poll.

"We know our goal ... we've got to get those folks who came out in record numbers in '08 to make history in Virginia," McAuliffe said.

It remains to be seen if presidential power can do it, and history doesn't bode well.

Virginia and New Jersey hold off-year statewide elections, and political parties have always placed enormous import on this race as a bellwether for the sitting president. Since 1977, politicians from the party that control the White House have lost their elections, a tradition that's getting mentioned more often as Deeds continues to drop in the polls.

Not noted as often, the same tradition has been happening since 1993 1985 in New Jersey gubernatorial elections. So if Gov. Jon Corzine (D) pulls it off, they've already beat expectations, or so the Democratic spin goes. (Updated to fix error.)

After TPMDC cited polls showing many Virginia Democrats plan to stay home on Election Day, @kevin_reiss told us on Twitter, "I do. I figure McDonnell winning is a done deal."

Now that Deeds is down and out, it's leaking out in bits - a loyal Northern Virginia Democrat who didn't get a thank-you after helping raise thousands of dollars for the campaign, voters who say he's gone too far to the right, and others are questioning his thesis-all-the-time strategy.

"The thesis was good for a few days, and now he's losing people," one Democrat told me. "He needs to be talking about jobs and jobs and jobs."

On the stump, Deeds is talking about the economy, but the message isn't amplified on the airwaves because the majority of the Democrat's ads are about social issues.

There's also groaning that lackluster enthusiasm for Deeds among Democrats could hurt the down-ticket candidates (Steve Shannon for attorney general and Jody Wagner for lieutenant governor) and even contribute to losses in the Virginia statehouse.

Reader "slb" commented on a TPMDC post that Deeds' campaign is too negative and he "just hasn't made a strong case for himself."

Former Gov. Doug Wilder (D) hasn't helped matters by withholding an endorsement and telling TPMDC that if McDonnell wins Virginia "won't sink into the seas."

He said he thinks Shannon is running the best campaign but fears he will lose thanks to Deeds.

Wilder also said he thought Gov. Tim Kaine has been absentee all year as chairman of the Democratic National Committee focusing on national issues.

"I don't think that helped the party and it is not helping the candidates who are running for the Democrats this year," he said.

It's not getting better - a Republican former state senator who was supporting Deeds changed his mind, switching to supporting McDonnell.

Democrats have bemoaned Deeds' debate performance, and Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos blasted Deeds for suggesting he'd opt Virginia out of a public health care option.

"Did Deeds really just say in debate he'd opt VA out of public plan? Way to eliminate any final hint of a Democratic reason to vote for him," Moulitsas wrote on Twitter, adding that Deeds has run an "insultingly bad" campaign and is making a mistake by running to the right.

Republicans are primed, and hope to win by as large a margin as possible to be able to proclaim that Obama's star has faded.

Obama isn't alone in presidential tradition - George W. Bush crossed the Potomac for Republicans in both governor's races in 2005 and 2001 and Bill Clinton campaigned hard for Don Beyer in 1997.

If there is a group that can get out young and first-time voters, it's the Obama campaign.

Obama sent a note to thousands of Virginia residents on his massive email list on Wednesday. (Read it here.)

We clipped McAuliffe's remarks: