TPMDC
Latest Poll: McDonnell 59, Deeds 40
Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2009, 6:42PM
VA-Gov. Candidates Bob McDonnell (R) and Creigh Deeds (D)
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A new SurveyUSA poll posted tonight shows the Virginia governor race has broken wide open as the days tick down to the Nov. 3 election. Republican nominee Bob McDonnell now leads Democrat Creigh Deeds by 19 points, 59-40. A similar SurveyUSA poll last week showed the race at 54-43 in favor of McDonnell.
According to the release, "McDonnell leads among both men and women, young and old, rich and poor, educated and less-educated, and in all regions of the state."
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Walter Mitty
October 20, 2009 7:09 PM
Damn, the Dems need to cut this guy off and run away from him as fast as possible. Does Obama want to make an appearance for a terrible candidate that will lose by double digits?
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 20, 2009 7:23 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Does he want to be seen as the kind of guy who'd do that? The graphs at pollster.com tell the story. Deeds is hosed, Corzine probably wins, the MSM calls it a split decision and the next day, we move on to something that actually matters.
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dswx
October 20, 2009 7:38 PM
Wow, this is definitely a new low/version of push polling...actually calling the race weeks before the actual election:
"In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, Incumbent Republican Bill Bolling is *today elected* to a second term, defeating Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 56% to 42%."
And "In the contest for Attorney General of Virginia, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli *today defeats* Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 56% to 41%."
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dswx
October 20, 2009 7:45 PM
Listening to Creigh Deeds during the current debate, he just said he is against the public option for health care and would consider opting out Virginia. Ugh.
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VivaAmerica!
October 20, 2009 9:05 PM in reply to dswx
For Real?! Didn't the Left support/push for this guy?
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dswx
October 20, 2009 9:30 PM in reply to VivaAmerica!
Not especially. Deeds has always been a "moderate". Similar to Kaine. He was supported by the NRA when he ran for Attorney General and lost to McDonnell last time in a squeaker. It's just that compared to fundamentalist McDonnell, he is far more tolerable and reasonable. Plus Deeds actually created jobs via legislation; McDonnell has done nothing but support right-wing issues: anti-choice, anti-job stimulus funds, etc. McDonnell is a real Pat Robertson-taught neanderthal. On the issues, it is no comparion and Deeds should be the next governor. But he is not telegenic or a good speaker compared to McDonnell. A classic style vs. substance race. And style is winning.
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DCCyclone
October 20, 2009 9:39 PM
It all depends on the turnout model, and the SUSA likely voter model has pegged the Virginia 2009 electorate as VERY conservative ALL year in their polls. They've had McDonnell up by a double-digit margin 4 polls in a row, including the previous 2 when other contemporaneous polls showed a single-digit race.
The question now is what PPP will say tomorrow, as well as Rasmussen and WaPo in their next polls. They've shown a closer race than SUSA claims the previous couple months, and I hope they will this time, too.
It really all comes down to the turnout model. We just don't know what vote share Dems and black voters and white liberals and Hispanics and Asians will be, except to know with great confidence their turnout will be depressed considerably more from last year than Republican-leaning groups.
Earlier today in my head I predicted a 53-46 race. I stick with that in spite of the SUSA and CNU polls that came out the past 24 hours. CNU, for their part, is pretty new to polling, and threw a real duck last fall with polls showing Obama performing much worse than other polls claimed--at one point CNU had Obama down 9 when others had him tied or winning the state.
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dswx
October 20, 2009 10:30 PM in reply to DCCyclone
Yes, SUSA's poll had a one-third split of the electorate between Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
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klip
October 20, 2009 9:48 PM
>
I concur. And McDonnell keeps pumping out slick ads that are no doubt having the desired effect in these closing weeks.
My concern is for how Deeds' lackluster campaign is making it tougher for other Virginia Dems to compete in tight races and will ultimately help put more Repubs in the state house. While I don't think there is much to extrapolate nationally from what happens in Virginia because Deeds has run such a poor campaign, the results here are not going to be good for the Dems from the governor race on down.
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Gilead
October 21, 2009 4:07 AM
McDonnell should have been easy to beat. People are turned off fundamentalists and the GOP.
Deeds is running a terrible campaign. I am in SE Virginia on the NC border. I know this is CBN country, but it is a mistake to write us off. President Obama even came here to campaign. Thank you, Mr. President.
I will say, the GOP has poured money into this race. VA Beach is blanketed with McDonnell signs. I haven't seen one Deeds sign, except in a few yards.
If Deeds loses this race, it will be due to his weak campaign.
I loath the thought of a Pat Robertson conservative winning this state.
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