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McDonnell's Lead Grows To Eight Points, 49-41

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VA-Gov. Candidates Bob McDonnell (R) and Creigh Deeds (D)

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A new poll out this morning shows Bob McDonnell extending his lead in the Virginia gubernatorial race two weeks before Election Day. McDonnell now leads his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds 49-41. Ten percent of voters remain undecided in the contest.

The poll of 605 registered voters was conducted by Clarus research over the weekend. In Clarus' last poll, taken in Sept., McDonnell led by 5 points with 20% undecided.

Internals from the poll show McDonnell gaining among women, independents and voters outside the populous D.C. suburbs. Despite weeks of Democratic attacks over his 1989 master's thesis -- attacks which focused on his negative views of women in the workplace at the time -- McDonnell now leads among women by one point.

Inside the poll (from the Clarus release):

* Despite heavy Democratic attacks on McDonnell's views on the role of women in society, McDonnell now edges Deeds among women by one point, 45-44 percent. McDonnell posts a sizable 14-point lead among men

* McDonnell leads Deeds in every major demographic group in the Commonwealth except Northern Virginians, voters under 30 and African Americans.

* Deeds holds a massive 72-point lead among African Americans, winning this vote 79-7 percent. He beats McDonnell 50-43 percent in Northern Virginia and 48-41 percent among voters 18-29.

* McDonnell leads white voters by a solid 26 points, 58-32 percent. He also carries the Southeastern/Central part of the state 45-42 percent and the Southwest/Western region by a thumping 28 points, 57-29 percent.

* Among voters 65 and older, McDonnell beats Deeds by a wide 54-37 percent margin.

* Regionally, Deeds has improved his position in Northern Virginia since the mid-September poll, going from 45 percent to 50 percent while McDonnell has moved from 40 percent to 43 percent in the region. Deeds has improved his support in the Southeastern/Central part of the state, going from 36 percent to 42 percent while McDonnell has increased his strength from 41 percent to 46 percent.

* McDonnell leads Republicans 89-4 percent. Deeds wins Democrats 86-6 percent.

* Fifty-one percent of voters who remain undecided in the gubernatorial race said they don't know enough about the candidates to make a decision and 24 percent said they have doubts about both candidates.

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21 comments

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October 20, 2009 9:07 AM   

If McDonnell goes on to win, this will be the first collateral damage that Obama and the Dems have suffered because of disenchantment from the base of the party over the first, largely disappointing year of this administration.

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October 20, 2009 9:47 AM    in reply to Doofus

Certainly, there will be a willingness to pin a Deeds loss on Obama, but that's short-sighted.

Local politics is still local politics. And, by most accounts, Deeds hasn't run a stellar campaign. Virginian Democrats have pressed him to "present a positive vision," suggesting that his campaign has focused too much on the negative. As such, it shouldn't be surprising that he's not doing better. At this point in the game, he shouldn't be having to sell Democrats on his campaign.

Additionally, if this race is indeed a reflection of the national climate, and a referendum on Obama's 9 months in office, what is the NJ gubernatorial race? What does it say about Obama's leadership that Corzine, who has terrible ratings, still has a chance to win? [Hint: it shouldn't say much. Again, politics is local.]

It's easy to overstate the influence of national events on local politics. We shouldn't forget that local politicians still have to run successful campaigns and tap into the passions and/or reassure the voters of their respective states. The potentially dichotomous outcomes of these races is a vivid demonstration of this point.

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October 20, 2009 10:13 AM    in reply to hewhohasnoname

Lets not forget how the media looks for news to support their prefered narrative and gives little context if it even mildly undercuts their editorial agenda...(another example how Fox has poised the pool)

Did anyone see the AP story this morning on how the Virginia race is a "Snapshot of American Attitides". The article has two sentences about NJ and how Corzine is favored because "it's a democratic-leaning state, and independent Chris Daggett is sucking support from both parties." No mention of the vast unfavorability of Christie. Or republican in general.

Then they pull out this Gem...

"Here in Virginia, as well as in the wider U.S., Republican crossover voters and independents are breaking from the Democrats, partly because they're put off by Obama's government expansion and expensive policy proposals like health care"

Evidenced by what the Teabaggers? Nice Job AP.

Nice to see our "Liberal Media" at work...

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October 20, 2009 9:48 AM    in reply to Doofus

No it would be because Deeds ran a weak campaign. I'd bet money that there isn't much of an Obama base (or much of a Dem base) in VA.

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October 20, 2009 9:57 AM    in reply to Doofus

Nice try. Elections are local. Think about it.

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October 20, 2009 10:15 AM    in reply to Doofus

Wow, that's a Republican troll post if ever there was one. The giveaway clue was the reference to the "first, largely disappointing year of this administration." You could not be further from the truth if you tried. See "economic stimulus bill, environmental laws, stem cell research, return of world respect, economic recovery beginning...just for starters.

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October 20, 2009 10:19 AM    in reply to dswx

I'm with you. Seems like Doofus is aptly named.

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October 20, 2009 11:33 AM    in reply to dswx

Wow, that's a laugh. I'm a progressive democrat and live in Virginia. I've also probably been posting here, not as a troll, for longer than any of you. There seems to be a reluctance here to recognize that the progressive base of the Democratic party is far from pleased with him right now. The bill of particulars includes: massive bailouts to Wall Street with no strings attached, continuation of Bush wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, continuation of indefinite detention policies begun by Bush, failure to address Katrina problems still festering in New Orleans, embrace of Bush policies on executive powers, and -- last but not least --lukewarm (at best) support of a public option in the health care plan,with Rahm Emmanuel rumored to have cut a deal months ago with the insurance companies and Big Pharma to keep any government option out of health-care reform.

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rwc

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October 20, 2009 11:47 AM    in reply to Doofus

I'm with you Doofus, though, if I were you, I'd change that moniker.

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October 20, 2009 12:52 PM    in reply to Doofus

Your so-called progressive attitude is quite childish.

Is the answer to 8 years of Bush ramming things down everyone's throat, 4-8 years of Obama ramming things down our throat? Even if they are policies we agree with?

The harder Obama Pushes the pendulum Left, the harder right it will be pushed back the next time we a have a repuke in office. Its about time that we moderate things a little, we'll be thankful in the long run. But I suspect you are more of an instant gratification guy, grow up.

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October 20, 2009 10:53 AM    in reply to Doofus

Insert preconceived narrative here.

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October 20, 2009 9:33 AM   

Well it hasn't been a year yet, so there is plenty of time for additional damage. The health care issue will probably blow the party to smithereens.

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October 20, 2009 10:08 AM    in reply to amabo666

Remember... Don't engage the trolls.

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October 20, 2009 10:21 AM    in reply to amabo666

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Thanks for the good laugh this am.

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pol

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October 20, 2009 9:37 AM   

This poll was done before the Washington Post's endorsement for Deeds was announced on Sunday evening. Deeds surged ahead to win the nomination after the WP's endorsement last spring.

I live in Virginia, and what I don't think most people understand is that Virginia is still a very evenly-split state between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans here are stark raving mad that Obama won last fall. I believe Democrats got fired up for Obama, but got lazy with this race. Deeds is a wonderful guy, but he's not Obama.

I will bet you Deeds will surge in the final two weeks. Ten percent of voters haven't made up their minds, and the Post endorsement will change that.

The Republicans will cite this as collateral damage, but I think McDonnell's masquerading as a moderate in TV commercials that began last June during the Democratic primary had a lot to do with it. The commercials are very likable, and would make MY grandmother vote for him, if she were alive.

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October 20, 2009 9:46 AM   

Certainly, there will be a willingness to pin a Deeds loss on Obama, but that's short-sighted.

Local politics is still local politics. And, by most accounts, Deeds hasn't run a stellar campaign. Virginian Democrats have pressed him to "present a positive vision," suggesting that his campaign has focused too much on the negative. As such, it shouldn't be surprising that he's not doing better. At this point in the game, he shouldn't be having to sell Democrats on his campaign.

Additionally, if this race is indeed a reflection of the national climate, and a referendum on Obama's 9 months in office, what is the NJ gubernatorial race? What does it say about Obama's leadership that Corzine, who has terrible ratings, still has a chance to win? [Hint: it shouldn't say much. Again, politics is local.]

It's easy to overstate the influence of national events on local politics. We shouldn't forget that local politicians still have to run successful campaigns and tap into the passions and/or reassure the voters of their respective states. The potentially dichotomous outcomes of these races is a vivid demonstration of this point.

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October 20, 2009 10:08 AM   

In other news, ignorant hillbillies in Southern Virginia continue to be ignorant hillbillies. Film at 11.

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pol

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October 20, 2009 10:18 AM    in reply to Matt Jones

Amen, Matt Jones.

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October 20, 2009 10:29 AM   

If Creigh Deeds loses to old' McDonald the media will try to pin the loss on Obama. The problem with that theory is; Deeds is running a weak campaign.

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October 20, 2009 12:27 PM   

Deeds ATTACKED Obama and DC democrats during his campaign. This loss is Deeds own fault and no one elses. Thats why I was disappointed in reading that Obama is going to campaign for Deeds because Deeds was trying to pin his falling poll numbers on Obama a couple of weeks ago. Democrats are going to pick up a republican seat in New York BUT I am 100% positive that the media will completely ignore that and focus on Deeds losing campaign in Virginia.

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October 20, 2009 1:09 PM    in reply to vamonticello

Yep they will ignore NJ and NY-23 because it doesn't fit their prefered narrative... Its already started, w/ ominous 2010 predictions this far out...

Case and Point...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33391960/ns/politics-more_politics/

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