This afternoon, the Associated Press reports ominously: "A new government estimate finds that the nation's health care tab -- already the biggest of any advanced country -- would increase even more under health care overhaul legislation in the House."
And it's true. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has found that the version of House legislation passed by the Ways and Means Committee would cause national health care expenditures to grow. So naturally, the GOP is jumping all over it.
"The American people have never fallen for the Democrat spin that a government takeover of health care would lower costs," said Rep. Tom Price (R-GA), chair of the Republican Study Committee.
Now, the Obama administration has confirmed that the Democrat plan would actually grow the slice of the pie consisting of American health care spending. With the country already struggling under the flawed economic policies of this administration, the last thing we need is to strain Americans' ability to pay for their health care.
With the administration affirming that H.R. 3200 is bad medicine for the American economy, I hope House Democrats will take heed and pursue a different approach to reform. It's time for Speaker Pelosi to toss this costly legislation and start over with bipartisan ideas that empower patients to control their own health care decisions.
So, obviously, there are a number of caveats.
First, this conclusion isn't new: It meshes with the CBO's earlier findings regarding the original House health care proposal. It was bad political news then, and it's remained a tough obstacle for House principals ever since, particularly given that the Senate Finance Committee bill's main selling point is that it reduces the deficit and "bends the curve" of health care spending.
Second, the CMS report comes with three pages of caveats suggesting their estimate could be significantly off the mark.
Third, and most importantly, the report addresses legislation that doesn't really exist anymore. The House bill, as passed by both the Ways and Means Committee and two others, has changed in a number of ways, many of which remain unclear. For example, it's now over $100 billion cheaper than it was when it passed through committee. A new CBO analysis should be available soon, and will likely weigh in on whether the much-changed bill remains unlikely to bend the curve. But until then, this report, like the CBO's initial analysis of the House bill is out of date.
Either way, though, expect this message--that the Obama administration is criticizing its own proposal--to be on the lips of Republican electeds, particularly in the House.

TPM Stories Now Surging on Digg.com

mcc
October 21, 2009 6:48 PM
I think we can assume that if the CBO score comes back and says nice things about the new House plan, the Republicans will continue pointing to this Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services report as the "real" numbers, possibly for years after the bill passes.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
TheRealFish
October 22, 2009 6:38 AM in reply to mcc
It already did come back, saying the new House plan would reduce the target expenditure established by Obama by some $30 billion.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
mcc
October 22, 2009 2:31 PM in reply to TheRealFish
What about the "cost curve" criticism?
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Powkat
October 21, 2009 6:55 PM
Republicans distorting facts to prove a lie is true. Ho-hum.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
VivaAmerica!
October 21, 2009 7:02 PM
Can you blame them? I mean, they have to put on a show so that their constituents don't think the entire party is in a coma.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
TheRealFish
October 22, 2009 6:42 AM in reply to VivaAmerica!
And the show is "no." They have put forward zero credible plans for reform and, in fact, some have stated there is no need for reform at all. So they are going to run in 2010 with "See? We made sure nothing got fixed!"
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
fbacon2
October 21, 2009 7:19 PM
Associated Press and the GOP: hand in glove.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Matt Jones
October 21, 2009 7:41 PM
I agree with one part of the statement - toss the current bills. Then write a new one with Medicare for all, and stuff it down the GOPs throat while telling the insurers to go pound sand. That's the "bipartisanship" they deserve.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
TheRealFish
October 22, 2009 6:54 AM in reply to Matt Jones
I've heard/read reports there's a strong push for the public option to be "Medicare Part E" (where "E" means "everyone").
Sure, this talk is mainly over on the House side, but Mike Ross(!!!) even said he could support it rebranded that way... .
So, if it starts out as Medicare Part E everywhere, and folks can opt-out later, I believe Rockefeller may have a point suggesting states might just be a trifle crazy killing insurance for 20-40 thousand constituents once they already buy-in. (That's my understanding: The Dems are now looking at opt-out as a reverse trigger, forcing states to wait a period before they can opt-out — and Ben Nelson said he could support such an opt-out scenario.)
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
neesy08
October 21, 2009 11:55 PM
nothing the gop say sticks. they have lost all credibility
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Kuyleh
October 22, 2009 12:14 AM
"...flawed economic policies of this administration..."
Really? Jesus...I'd call for someone to smack him in the nuts with a history book, but it hasn't even been long enough for it to be history.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
TheRealFish
October 22, 2009 7:02 AM in reply to Kuyleh
History: I bet that's why he chose to focus on "this administration" instead of going after Democrats as a whole. The largest US economic calamities of this and the last century were caused by Republicans steering the economy and stripping away regulatory laws (or just not enforcing them).
It always took follow-up Dem majorities to clean up the mess and, in almost every instance of those cleanup processes, the Rethugs always attempted to turn around and say the mess they were cleaning up was caused by them.
Of course, the most astounding fact is that the American public has frequently accepted this blame shifting, even though there was no logic behind the arguments. Ah, well... .
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
lousgirl84
October 22, 2009 10:16 AM in reply to TheRealFish
'Of course, the most astounding fact is that the American public has frequently accepted this blame shifting, even though there was no logic behind the arguments. Ah, well... "
I feel your pain, but unfortunately, nothing the American pubic falls for is astounding to me. We are the most uninformed people on the Planet, except for maybe the Afghani's and they have an excuse, no phones, no newspapers, and isolated.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
hawaiian
October 22, 2009 12:29 AM
It seems like lots of you cant wait for socialized medican. You are in for a big surpize, my wife and I lived in Europe a couple of years ago and had to use there services. You can make all the jokes you like but soon your stupidity will be here for all to see.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
OldenGoldenDecoy
October 22, 2009 1:10 AM in reply to hawaiian
Oh ... big deal . . .
We've been members of the same socialized 8 million member non-profit medical health care plan for 27 years right here in the good old U.S. of A. Same primary care doctor for 15 years of that. Complete coverage, top to bottom. First class service and no waiting lines. We can also take care of many minor situations online, straight to the doctor with an answer within minutes of the question. If we choose, we can get all our meds in the mail. Copay is 10 bucks for an office visit. Meds are 5 bucks copay.
We pay a premium of 30% below any other for-profit free market plan currently available in the U.S. It's amazing what a person can get when the do-nothing middle-men and Wall Street investors are cut out of the equation
But... no problem. You keep your free market for-profit plan and we'll keep our socialized plan. We like our extra annual $3800 spending money.
Thank you very much. Dumb ass . . .
~OGD~
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
nancydenis
October 22, 2009 8:59 AM in reply to hawaiian
And where in Europe was it that you had such bad health care?
And what was the specific nature of your dislike?
Our son lived in Europe for eight years and had absolutely great health care.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Kuyleh
October 22, 2009 11:10 AM in reply to hawaiian
Thanks for the warning, but...I'm sure "socialized" medicine doesn't affect one's ability to spell basic words such as "medicine" or make people forget the basic differences between "there" and "their." So I think we're good!
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Eric Jaffa
October 22, 2009 1:48 AM
Of course, if millions more people have health insurance, then total health care spending in the US will increase.
The idea is for uninsured people to get insurance, and get treatment.
Regarding bending-the-cost-curve, that is about slowing increases in health insurance premiums.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 22, 2009 8:52 AM
Quite aside from the worries about the base becoming alienated and degenerating into hatchery for terrorism I blogged about last weekend, it seems to me that the Republicans in Congress are re-running the exact same mistake that was the core operating principle of the the McCain campaign. Threy are still bought in to the Halperin "Way to Win" concept that the key to electoral victory is "winning the day" and "winning the week" in the MSM more often than the other guys. They think Drudge still matters and they think getting headlines in Politico is really important. They're still living in the pre-2006 Bush/Cheney/K-Street Project Beltway worldview.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
jollyroger
October 22, 2009 2:19 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Republicans in Congress are re-running
Yeah, ain't it cool? They go for the okie-doke every time, and now they are setting up the public option to cruise in becz, it, of course is the only way to seriously attack costs, which is what the pugnants are now demandind; the tactical mirror to this strategic trap is that if the pugnants actually get to 41 votes in the senate, Mean. Ol' Mr. Reconciliation will be the new sherriff in town. These two support each other, because only thru the impact of the public option can the Byrd rule be trumped for so much substantive reform.
I am guessing that the particular demands of the reconciliation strategy dictated that Ahref="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/jollyroger/2009/09/relax-max-reconcile-your-bad-s.php">weird dance around Baucus
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
Indie Pro
October 22, 2009 9:56 AM
People still listen to Republicans. Hilarious. Lies and bad ideas are all they have or had.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?