Poll: A Three-Way Race In NY-23

I think Owens is going to win this, and it's going to be a GREAT prize on election night--especially if we lose the NJ and VA Governorships.

The race is shaping up perfectly for Owens.

First, Owens has money and is on the air already, creating a positive public image.

Second, Hoffman has the 2 ingredients required for third-wheel success: resources to become visible, and a meaningful reason for base Republicans to vote for him. That CfG quarter-milliion dollar investment will go far in a rural district with no expensive media markets. Other conservative groups are openly supporting him. So Hoffman himself on the surface appears capable of raising some money. And Scozzafava's very liberal positions on some issues are anathema to base Republicans, enough so that a significant percentage of them won't be able to hold their noses and vote for DeDe when they have an alternative.

Third, the district just isn't conservative enough for 2 candidates to split the right-wing vote and win. DeDe MUST get a significant percentage of Dems to cross over and reject Owens, but Owens is in a good position to prevent that. Base Democrats aren't going to make gay marriage a priority, and there's nothing else where DeDe is on Owens' left. That one major union in the district already endorsed Owens is a signal to base Democrats who care about organized labor to stick with the Democrat.

I feel VERY good about this.

And, as an aside, I have a gut feeling that we might just pull out one of those two Governorships next month, and it could be either one. Winning both is very long odds, but not impossible.