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Poll: Christie Up By Only Four -- Is There A Hidden Minority Vote, Or Not?
Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)
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A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race provides further corroboration that the race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger Chris Christie is getting closer -- but another claim, that there is a potential latent minority vote for Corzine that is yet to surface, is not necessarily the case.
The top-line numbers: Christie 46%, Corzine 42%, independent Chris Daggett 7%. The margin of error is ±4%. Two months ago, Christie led by 48%-40%, and Daggett was not included in the poll. This in line with other polls that have shown Christie only leading by three or four points.
Kos makes an observation that his internals show a whopping 25% of black voters, 1% percent of Hispanics, and 13% of other groups are undecided -- meaning that those voters could potentially break big for Corzine. However, a key issue here is that racial sub-samples have a higher margin of error, and minority sub-samples in polls have a very high margin of error. Let's look at two other recent polls.
The Monmouth poll had a top-line of Christie 43%, Corzine 40%, Daggett 8%. A combined sample of black and Hispanic voters had only 7% undecided. These minority groups were given to me by Monmouth as a combined set because the sample size was too small. The margin of error on the minority group sub-sample is a whopping ±14%.
The Quinnpiac poll had a top-line of Christie 43%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 12%. Quinnpiac has informed me that they had only 9% of blacks as undecided. A breakdown for Hispanics was not given, because the sample was too small. The margin of error on the black voters group was ±13.2%.
Research 2000 president Del Ali told me that the margin of error for his black voters sub-sample was ±11.4%, for Hispanics ±15%, and for other ±20%. He agreed with me on my doubts about releasing such small samples or taking them too seriously, but also explained: "I understand why Markos does release them. It is for transparency reasons."
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david46
October 2, 2009 7:40 PM
Eric makes some quite valid observations, but I have noticed a pattern in many polls over the past year or so that have understated what the minority vote will be for Democratic candidates. I have not, however, kept a list of the polls so this is from memory.
There is a tendency for polls to show African-Americans providing 60-80% support for Democratic candidates that most dispassionate analysts know full well will get a minimum of 85% and probably nicely over 90%. I have noticed this recently in several polls in VA.
Another point which is not the focus of Eric's observations is the nature of the vote for Mr. Daggett. It appears that he has gained voters who were softly for Mr. Christie because they had "issues" with Gov. Corzine but became disgusted with Mr. Christie as they learned more about him. Instead of calling themselves undecided, they said they were for Mr. Daggett. What will they do on election day? My experience with elections over some 40 plus years is that absent something highly inflamatory, there is no way they will be back to Mr. Christie having rejected him after Labor Day. It just does not happen.
Remember that these recent polls also attempt to screen for likely voters. Since these folks are saying that they will vote, they have parked their vote with Mr. Daggett for the time being. They have alredy made the decision that Mr. Christie is too odious for them to vote for notwithstanding their "issues" with Gov. Corzine. Will they decide that a vote for Mr. Daggett is in reality a vote for Mr. Christie? Some will make that decision; the question is how many.
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jdb316
October 2, 2009 11:15 PM
The thing with the minority numbers is you don't know how many of them actually will turn out on election day. I don't imagine Corzine is going to galvanize African Americans and Latinos any more than the typical white middle-aged male Democratic candidate. They may prefer Corzine, but do they like him (or hate Christie) enough to bother waiting in line at the polling stations to vote for him?
Since this is an off-year election, turnout will probably be low - I'd be shocked if it is over 50%. We know Christie's base will be fired up to vote for him. Will Corzine's be likewise?
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david46
October 3, 2009 7:43 AM in reply to jdb316
jdb316 makes quite valid observations which are grounded in electoral history. Obama, however, has "invested" in Corzine's campaign. Holding NJ and/or VA (and I think it is quite possible to do both--difficult without any dobut) would damage Republican morale foirng into 2010--holding both would destroy it--especially if the Democrats also took the VA House of Delegates. Obama and company have also figured this out. What will be the impact of Obama targeting not just the minority communities but also his core voters? Will targeting the African-American communities by the Obama team reverse the normal pattern correctly cited jdb316? Will they be able to mitigate the normal Republican voter supression tactics which appear to be starting in VA? I would make this observation that diligent pollsters have difficulty measuring the probable turnout of African-American voters and often miss those occasions when a surge, one way or the other, diverges from normal patterns.
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JCN
October 4, 2009 2:34 PM
The Democrat machine presently running the State exhibits more vitriol, deceit and treachery than any other in memory. Nearly a half-century working in government teaches me that. In the case of this election, the devil we know must go.
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