Poll: Corzine Ahead of Christie By 43%-38%

The new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a five-point lead over Republican Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 13%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie had an edge of 41% to Corzine's 40%, and Daggett was at 14%.

This poll suggests that Daggett is taking more votes away from Christie than Corzine, with his voters listing Christie as their second choice by a 43%-27%. This runs contrary to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey that showed Corzine as their second choice, but keep in mind these sub-samples have very high margins of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead. But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"