
The new SurveyUSA poll of New Jersey has the race tied between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Jon Corzine.
The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 43%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Christie was ahead by 41%-39%-19%. It's interesting to see that Daggett has fallen in the run-up to election day, as often happens with third-party candidates, and that Corzine may have been the beneficiary.
Also, the pollster's analysis says that Corzine has already banked a lead in absentee voters: "Corzine leads among the 11% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot. The candidates are even among voters who have not yet voted but say they will on or before election day. At this hour, the contest is a coin-toss. The lower the turnout, the better for Corzine."
JohnMcCSF
October 29, 2009 6:29 PM
Screw the polls
Waiting for Kleefeld to call the race
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mans_best_friend
October 29, 2009 6:42 PM
Interesting article by Nate Silver on the polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/man-vs-machine-in-new-jersey.html
The short version is that there is a big split in the polls between those conducted by live interviewers and robopolls. Robopolls have a much lower response rate and tend to sample those most enthusiastic about their favored candidate, while people in the middle just tend to hang up. The upshot is that if turnout is very low, it's Christie who is in good shape (so to speak), since the enthusiastic voters tend to turn out no matter what. Higher turnouts directionally favor Corzine.
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Kibitzer 2006
October 29, 2009 10:23 PM
--Kibitzer
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