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Poll: Daggett Voters Becoming The Key To New Jersey Election
Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2009, 12:08PM
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Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey
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A new Rasmussen poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race finds that independent Chris Daggett could be continuing to surge -- but that if his support falls back down, as third-party candidates often do, Republican Chris Christie could hold on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.
Respondents were asked for initial support of candidates, and it came out as a tie between the top two: Christie 38%, Corzine 38%, Daggett 16%.
However, Daggett supporters were given a follow-up question about whether they might change their minds, and who they might vote for if they do -- similar to the process that Rasmussen normally uses to push people from the undecided column into leaning towards a candidate. The poll then found that 57% of Daggett supporters could change their minds, and this could result in a new number: Christie 45%, Corzine 41%, Daggett 9%.
"The race is a tossup, and the key question will be if Daggett loses support, how much support will he lose, and where will it go," Scott Rasmussen told TPM, also adding: "There is no perfect way to measure this. But this is where the play is."
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DCCyclone
October 15, 2009 1:47 PM
Rasmussen has been cooking its polls all year, and they need to be damned for their presentation of this one, too.
Kudos to you, Eric, for an honest narrative on what the new Rasmussen poll data actually proves.
But Rasmussen's own narrative on its site spins like a top to claim Christie is winning.
Rasmussen posts as its lead graphic the 45-41-9 breakdown, with Christie up 4, and opens its narrative by saying Christie has a slim lead. The narrative LATER explains that the race "could" be closer because the "initial" ballot test question produced the 38-38-16 breakdown.
Rasmussen went on to assume that the 57% of Daggett voters who said they "could" change their minds ALL WOULD DO SO, while assuming the 27% of Corzine voters and 20% of Christie voters who said they could change their minds all would hold firm.
Now, compiling data this way is perfectly fine. And it's perfectly fine to present the 45-41-9 breakdown as one plausible scenario. But to lead with the 45-41-9 breakdown is a flat-out lie. Rasmussen isn't showing a 45-41-9 race, they're showing a tie. And if you're going to present numbers with Daggett waverers' second choices, then the Corzine and Christie waverers' second choices also need to be in that mix.
This really is one more example of Rasmussen manipulating data to make Republicans look better, and Democrats look worse, than they do, and that in itself is a story that should be pursued further, Eric.
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