The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the NY-23 special election finds Democratic candidate Bill Owens narrowly leading Republican Dede Scozzafava -- and Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who has excited a revolt against the GOP establishment from the whole national right wing, in third.
The numbers: Owens 35%, Scozzafava 30%, and Hoffman 23%, with a ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with last week's Siena poll, which had Owens ahead by 33%-29%-23%.
Hoffman supporters were asked for their second choices, with only 9% saying they would back Scozzafava, 3% for Owens, 26% who wouldn't vote, and 62% who are undecided. Even with the higher margins of error that afflict these sorts of sub-samples, that's pretty telling.
Interestingly, a key poll question finds that Scozzafava doesn't even qualify for the argument that the GOP should nominate moderate candidates to match moderate districts. Scozzafava is in favor of gay marriage -- making her even more progressive than the Democrat on this issue -- but the district's likely voters oppose gay marriage by 53%-39%.

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RhodaA
October 23, 2009 9:15 AM
"Divide and Conquer"
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Russell
October 23, 2009 10:35 AM
Oh look, there's my other foot! Quick, get a gun and lets see if I can shoot it!
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MT from CC
October 23, 2009 11:46 AM
If this does not prove that the "Moderate Republican" is omewhere between "endangered" and "extinct", I don't know what does. This is NY, no less. Oy.
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Russell
October 23, 2009 1:50 PM
To Glenn Beck, Gary Bauer, Sean Hannity, Michele Bachmann, Michelle Malkin, Dick Armey and, yesterday, like the churning of milk bringing forth butter and the wringing of the nose bringing forth blood, to Sarah Palin's Facebook page.
It's like Commissioner Gordon lit up the batshit signal.
Borrowed from Huffpost
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WaftingBy
October 23, 2009 1:52 PM
I actually live in this district; and despite being a lifelong Democrat, I'm flipping the lever for Scozzafava on November 3. Having heard both of them speak, having paid attention to the radio interviews and the pieces in the local papers, this woman obviously understands what the district needs and feels so much more like McHugh (who also had a fine handle on his district) than either of the other two candidates. And McHugh was a fabulous representative for our area .. it was a huge loss when he was appointed to a new post. Perhaps she's a RINO .. but she is a Republican, and not the first I've voted for in my life. Fiscal responsibility was high on my list of issues, and she seemed best able to speak to the topic with regard to my area than her Democratic opponent. The county in which I live is the largest, and the poorest, in the state .. and yet we can't even get the local board of legislators to raise the county sales tax by a mere 1%. A small but significant move that would raise between 3 and 5 million and save important social programs and positions as well as monies cut for many local arts organizations. This woman seems to understand "small, but significant" in this context. Owens has just been making a lot of useless noise. Wish there were more of these kinds of Republicans in Congress .. we might actually be getting something done.
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Common Sense Caucus
October 23, 2009 3:43 PM
Thanks for the lack of common sense people! We'll take the seat that should be your's if you really want us to!
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willia451
October 24, 2009 9:07 AM
The best scenario, at least from a national perspective, would be for Hoffman to win. Or at least gain more votes than Scozzafava.
This would encourage MORE Conservative Party candidates to run in other conservative districts across the country next year. Thus splitting the conservative vote. Fatally perhaps.
Owens seems even more conservative on many of the issues than Scozzafava. So what do we REALLY gain if he wins? Other than yet another almost Republican blue dog in the Democratic Party. Not much seems to be the answer.
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