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Poll: Democrat Bill Owens Takes Narrow Lead In NY-23
Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2009, 9:35AM
NY-23 candidates Dede Scozzafava (R) and Bill Owens (D)
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The new Siena poll of the NY-23 special election, which is being held on November 3 to fill a GOP-held swing seat, shows Democrat Bill Owens taking a narrow lead in a three-way race.
The numbers: Owens 33%, moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava 29%, and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman with 23%. Two weeks ago, Scozzafava was ahead with 35%, Owens had 28%, and Hoffman at 16%.
The pollster's analysis finds that the positive nature of Owens' campaign has helped him, compared to negativity from the GOP campaign: "Among those who've seen Owens' commercials, a small plurality says the commercials make them more likely to support Owens. However, by a margin of 28-12 percent, those who've seen Scozzafava's commercials say those commercials make them less likely to support her."
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Walter Mitty
October 15, 2009 10:44 AM
Scozzafava is also running out of money as Hoffman is getting all of the money from the Right.
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GayIthacan
October 15, 2009 2:03 PM
Dontcha just love it when the GOP splits its vote between the middle and the wingnuts?
Makes it SO easy to conquer them!
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LarsThorwald
October 15, 2009 2:29 PM in reply to GayIthacan
This is exactly what happened to Wayne Gilchrest in his race. His primary opponents pegged him as being not right-wing enough, he and his opponents were damaged in the ensuing battle, the GOP nominated a complete right-wing Club for Growth ideologue in Andy Harris, and the result? Democrat Frank Kratovil winning a red district.
I pray to God it happens everywhere.
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tosh
October 15, 2009 2:06 PM
This all is lose-lose, since Owens isn't a good candidate. He'll head right to the Blue Dogs, and give them street cred since he's in the Northeast rather than a Southern or Western Blue Dog.
John
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tosh
October 15, 2009 2:10 PM in reply to tosh
Hit submit too quick, wanted to add:
Progressives should keep an eye on him and hold the threat of a Primary over his head in 2010 if he goes too far off the reservation. We know the GOP will target it again in 2010, and possibly more focused with a single wingnut candidate. Owens is going to feel he needs to play to conservatives, which isn't entirely off base. But if he's a Dem, there are things where we need his vote while allowing him to "vote his district" on others.
Just a Rep to keep an eye on and not let him slide quickly into the roll of being a longterm DINO.
John
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MJMS
October 15, 2009 2:45 PM
I tried to give money thru ther ActBlue website but could only find the fund for an unnamed Democratic nominee for next year. So I googled him, and gave money thru ActBlue on his website.
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northcountryobserver
October 15, 2009 5:11 PM
I live in the 23rd district and have been engaged with a number of civic and educational groups trying to get the candidates to attend a live candidates forum for both a live audience and for distribution via regional media outlets. We've done so successfully in the past.
This time it is different. All 3 candidates have ducked out of or been noncommital to any suggested dates that we proposed. The conservative and democratic candidates have chosen to have fund raisers out of district in New York city rather than face the actual voters that they say they want to represent! A quick look at open secrets.org reveals that the republicans rely on the same formula; almost all money raised by McHugh (the previous Republican congressman now secretary of the Army) in the last election was also from NYC and Washington!
They are all bought and paid for by out of district funding sources and want to avoid actually talking to their constituents. The candidates do not choose to face tough questions as to how they stand on the issues instead they read polls and huddle with consultants to manipulate a win via 30 second spot.
How do the actual voters get to know the candidates? Only via attack ads and news releases about events they attend that are really only pep rallies for partisans. It seems that none of the candidates actually wants the voters know how they stand on issues.
This what we get instead: Siena Poll horse race numbers and candidates that are beholden to power interests outside the district! Sad day for democracy!
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hotspur18
October 16, 2009 8:51 AM
I grew up in this area (Madison County in the Southern edge of district)and was home over the weekend an saw a lot about this in the papers. When I still lived there I was no fan of McHugh who was just a lock-step republican vote.
When I grew up in Central NY it was an article of faith that republicans won in the area and if you were interested in getting into local politics your chances were much better as an R. That said I do think the region (and here I am talking about Madison County & Central NY rather than the North Country which I don't know)is getting more domocratic. I saw some local articles from after the election and President Obama actually carried Madison County and, I think, Oneida County (not part of the 23rd district) which stunned me. Maybe it isn't supportable and was due to disgust with the Bush era and/or Palin's complete unfitness, I don't know, but it is at least a glimmmer of hope.
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