TPMDC
Poll: Dems Planning To Stay Home Nov. 3
Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 21, 2009, 11:18AM
VA-Gov. Candidates Bob McDonnell (R) and Creigh Deeds (D)
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The Democratic base is planning on staying away from the polls Nov. 3, less than a year after they braved long lines to cast ballots for President Obama. That's according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) out today.
From the PPP release:
The voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.
Bob McDonnell (R) continues to lead the race against Creigh Deeds, 52-40, "up from 48-43 three weeks ago."
The poll contains an interesting note on the negative campaign ads that have been a hallmark of the Virginia gubernatorial contest this year. From the release:
While they've gotten a lot less attention it actually seems that McDonnell's attacks on Deeds have been more effective. When we first polled the general election in early July 29% of voters in the state had an unfavorable opinion of Deeds. Now 48% do. McDonnell's negatives have increased only from 32% to 35% during that time. At the start of the campaign they both had a net favorability rating of +19. Now McDonnell's is +21 and Deeds' is -7.
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Indie Pro
October 21, 2009 11:24 AM
I know I'm all geared up to support dems:
[Obama's Administration] has given Shell approval to drill oil exploration wells in two leaseholds in the Beaufort Sea, which could lead to the first drilling in more than a decade in this area off the north coast of Alaska.
Shell Alaska general manager Pete Slaiby hailed the decision as "another positive step towards the ultimate goal of drilling in 2010."
But environmental groups criticized the move. "There is no safe way to drill in the Beaufort Sea," said Athan Manuel, director of lands protection at the Sierra Club. "Cleaning up an oil spill in the Arctic's broken sea ice is next to impossible, and where there is drilling, there are oil spills." He said a spill could threaten polar bears and bowhead whales.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/19/AR2009101903347.html?wprss=rss_nation
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Walter Mitty
October 21, 2009 11:29 AM
Maybe this will be a shot across the bow that Dems supporters want results, not dragging your feet bipartisanship that gets nothing done.
That and Deeds is a horrid candidate and just last night spoke out against the Public Option. Yeah that will raly Democrats who support the PO nationally at about 80%.
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nova voter
October 21, 2009 11:43 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
no, it's a shot across the bow that democrats in virginia prefer voting for democrats. had the democrats run a candidate this year, i would go out and vote for him/her.
my plan not to vote for governor has nothing to do with the national party or national politicians. it has to do with the fact that we have this choice: DINO Idiot vs. Misogynistic Homophobe.
no thanks. i'll pass on the poison altogether, but thanks for offering the choice.
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dswx
October 21, 2009 11:50 AM in reply to nova voter
McD's anti-women, anti-science, and anti-environment stances ought to be more than enough to support Deeds. Who has also actually created jobs through legislation, unlike McD. To sit on one's hands is to tacitly support McD. And Virginia can not afford to destroy the gains made with Warner and Kaine. Which McD will do.
The stimulus package is still working. And it has still not taken full effect, as it was stated when it was passed that it would take months.
Deeds HCR comments were bad. But he still trumphs McD. And I am quite fearful of a McD right-wing extremist administration that affects a broader spectrum of issues. Especially jobs, the environment and education.
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DCCyclone
October 21, 2009 12:28 PM in reply to dswx
dswx is right on all points, and I sure hope base Democrats show up to vote in this one. I'm in Virginia and have live with the outcome in this one much more directly than the NJ-Gov and NY-23 races.
That said, Deeds not only is doomed, but he's actually on the verge of getting blown out by a BIG margin. The latest polls all show him falling behind by a double-digit margin now thanks to Democrats losing interest, and that was before his new public option fuck-up.
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johnmccsf
October 21, 2009 1:04 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
10 pounds of shit, 5 pound bag
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slb
October 21, 2009 6:50 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Yeah, that Deed's negatives are way up is probably not solely due to the McDonnell ads; it's at least partly due to Deed's own hedging on things like the public option.
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ogliberal
October 21, 2009 11:45 AM
I think the candidate is the biggest problem here. And that's the reason I think the race in NJ is much closer. Corzine certainly has his problems, mostly because the state is a mess(and has been...we're still recovering from the fiscal irresponsiblity of Kean and Whitman and their tax cuts, in addition to the usual corruption and old boy/gals network), but Democratic voters in NJ know the guy is a progressive and they trust him. I think people worry that Deeds will be GOP-lite as governor because of his attempts to appeal to the more moderate conservative voters who will never vote for him anyway.
But yeah, had the stimulus package been a bit bigger and better targeted, and had HCR already been signed WITH a public option, and had Obama made it clear that he's not going to sink us into a deeper mess in Afghanistan, I think the race would be going better for Deeds.
As much as he annoys the shit out of me, McAuliffe probably would have been a better candidate.
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DCCyclone
October 21, 2009 12:32 PM in reply to ogliberal
ogliberal, it's ALL about the candidates. This election is proving to be a "status quo" election where all other things are equal, so that as Chuck Todd likes to say it's the candidates and campaigns that matter. Corzine SHOULD be a dead duck and Deeds SHOULD be in a dead heat, but Christie and Deeds have run such lousy campaigns that it's the other way around. Same thing in NY-23 where the Republican has run the worst campaign imaginable and obviously was always in way over her head, while the Democrat Bill Owens walked into the race with eyes wide open and willing to do what's necessary to win.
And all this completely destroys the "Democrats in trouble" narrative.
If candidates and campaigns are how elections are decided next year, we'll be in real good shape, contrary to current punditry.
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VivaAmerica!
October 21, 2009 1:32 PM in reply to ogliberal
I don't buy it. It's all Deeds. He's a poor candidate - period. I would believe your theory if this was the midterms, however.
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johnmccsf
October 21, 2009 1:03 PM
An off year election, a candidate reported to be sinking fast in all polls, any wonder that Democrats might just go to the grocery store instead of the polls?
This could be ugly
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JohnW1141
October 21, 2009 1:35 PM
I think this story of the base staying home is a precursor. I think its a sign of how disappointed the base is in Obama, and to a lesser extent to Congress, and why I think the Dems are in deep doo doo.
I say Obama is the biggest reason because the base knows how a Democratic Congress can be, and I think they put a lot more faith in Obama to lead and push a progressive movement.
My opinion of Obama has deteriorated quite a bit.
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xargaw
October 21, 2009 5:00 PM in reply to JohnW1141
Obama has two choices. Forcefully back a PO and see that a strong bill makes it to his desk if only with 51 votes if necessary, or, continue to weasel as he has been doing on the PO and loose his base and the majority in 2010. Obama did not recruit a grassroots base of do or die Democrats. He created a grassroots base of activists that expect him to keep his word or loose their support.
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dolgre
October 21, 2009 2:04 PM
Oh, please--"Deeds is a DINO and a crappy candidate". The other guy is a frigging NIGHTMARE for the citizens of Virginia. Deeds might not be perfect, but there is no way he can inflict the kind of damage an extremist Republican can in your state.
If you're not voting in this election because you're wallowing in self pity and disillusion that Obama hasn't been the friggin' tooth fairy over the past 10 months, GET OVER IT. You have a duty to vote, and until the two party system changes, it might just be for the lesser of two evils, but its your damn duty as a citizen!
Whiners like these folks are the reason George Bush served two terms--"Kerry just didn't inspire me" was a GREAT reason not to throw Dubya out, eh?
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slb
October 21, 2009 6:56 PM in reply to dolgre
Sure; but that's an argument that only appeals to those who follow politics closely. It's not one that is going to appeal to independents and people who only follow politics when the election returns are coming in.
The way the campaign itself has gone, Deeds has not given voters a strong reason to back him, and McDonnell has not given them a strong reason to oppose him. So it's no wonder that many people are saying, "Why bother?"
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Mateo123
October 21, 2009 2:08 PM
McAuliffe was infinitely better than Deeds. His problem was that he was so closely tied to the Clintons. It's too bad.
We've seen what happens with Bush Lite (or, worse, just plain Bush). It never works. Democrats stay home. This is unfortunate, as Virginia is a nice governor's mansion to have, both because Virginia is a significant state and because a governor can help organize in key races (i.e. election night 2012).
But, Kane didn't do many favors either. I remember him committing to resolving transportation funding and here we are, with Deeds trying to say the same stuff.
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slb
October 21, 2009 7:06 PM in reply to Mateo123
That's not entirely Kaine's fault. He has a Republican legislature to deal with, and they have taken the same "just say no" approach to funding transportation projects that Congressional Republicans have taken to funding economic stimulus. And they do that at the same time they are slamming Kaine for not spending more money on transportation. I don't know where they think the money is supposed to come from.
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5oclockshadow
October 21, 2009 6:24 PM
dolgre and mateo...
The big problem is that for the right candidate, the people on this blog would be out canvassing, phonebanking, and flyering.
Of course we're going to vote for Deeds, but his idiotic campaign has depressed the opinion leaders to mere voter status and voters to *eh?... whatever*
This is a perfect storm of crap for Virginia Democrats who will now have to suffer through 4 years of insanity as McDonnell's turnout gives the neandrethal GOP a statewide sweep of constitutional offices and threatens possibly dozens of down-ticket Delegate and State Senate races.
This is the Creighpocalypse and Virginia Democrats are going to suffer at least 3 horsemen: McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli (the worst of the lot).
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slb
October 21, 2009 7:12 PM in reply to 5oclockshadow
This is a perfect storm of crap for Virginia Democrats who will now have to suffer through 4 years of insanity as McDonnell's turnout gives the neandrethal GOP a statewide sweep of constitutional offices and threatens possibly dozens of down-ticket Delegate and State Senate races.
Not to mention that this is the last House of Delegates election before the 2010 redistricting.
Deeds has been introducing legislation in the last several sessions to turn the redistricting process over to a bipartisan commission, and the legislation has passed the state senate, even in Republican hands, but it has always gone down to defeat in the House of Delegates. Which now will likely become even more rabidly conservative than it already is. :-(
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slb
October 21, 2009 7:14 PM in reply to slb
Hmmmm, maybe if Virginia comes to its senses in 2011, we can try the same mid-decade redistricting trick the Republicans pulled in Texas.
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