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Poll: Palin Loses Big To Both Romney And Huckabee For GOP Nomination
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
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A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Sarah Palin should not be viewed as a favorite for the Republican nomination in 2012, with her trailing both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee by wide margins in head-to-head match-ups.
Romney leads Palin by 52%-37% among likely GOP primary voters, and Huckabee is ahead by 55%-35%.
The pollster's analysis also finds that Mitt Romney's Mormon religion is still a liability, with him losing to Palin by 14 points among evangelical Christians, while leading her among other Protestants, Catholics and other groups. By contrast, the former Southern Baptist minister Mike Huckabee leads Palin by 17 points among evangelicals.
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Dorn76
October 19, 2009 12:11 PM
Yes, but how did she do in the crucial GOP demographic of "believes Obama is a secret Muslim, and/or the Antichrist"...I'm betting Palin is ahead among those folks.
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TexasFilly
October 19, 2009 12:42 PM in reply to Dorn76
I'm guessing she has 99 percent of the birfers. The more ignorant, the more they like ya.
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cube3u
October 19, 2009 12:12 PM
Short version.....no one has emerged as the "leader" in the GOP.
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billp
October 19, 2009 12:12 PM
Nobody's praying harder for Palin not to run in 2012 than John McCain. He'd have quite a dilemma should he have to make a decision whether or not to endorse her.
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kash79
October 19, 2009 12:19 PM in reply to billp
GOP is so far to the right- I'm sure none of the "contenders" will bid for his support- unliess he is dead, of course. So no pressure on him whatsoever.
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tonigo
October 19, 2009 12:29 PM
The irony is that the only reason Palin remains in the spotlight at all is due to the media's fascination with her. Despite Sarah's ranting against the MSM, it has been her best friend.
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ProfessorB
October 19, 2009 2:04 PM in reply to tonigo
I doubt it. A distinct and significant chunk of the GOP is all Palin charged and I expect to see them represented intensely in Iowa if she runs. Remember, this is the party that brought us Bush/Cheney.
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tonigo
October 19, 2009 2:25 PM in reply to ProfessorB
But as the Rasmussen poll shows, that percentage Palin supporters is a pretty small (albeit very loud) chunk of the GOP.
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ProfessorB
October 19, 2009 3:11 PM in reply to tonigo
But we just did it last year. I'm sure we don't have to go through American elections 101 but why not. Obama won Iowa with a tiny number of caucusers relative to the democratic base in total yet was catapulted to front runner status against his opponents. The same will hold true for silly Sarah if she can remember all her lines give enough winks.
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exregis
October 19, 2009 12:31 PM
Look, Rasmussen has turned more partisan this year and its polls are suspect. Afraid of an overwhelming Republican defeat if Palin runs in 2012, it's trying its best to get her out of the race.
Far-thinking Democrats need to support Palin. Tell your pollsters it's Palin or nothing.
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_jonny_5_
October 19, 2009 2:06 PM in reply to exregis
Your point about Rasmussen cannot be overstated.
They have gone from a horribly Biased republican polling outfit to a horribly Biased republican polling outfit who's purposes are to skew poll averages (that became popular during the 08 election) in the repubs favor amd to get headlines because of its over the top poll results.
You know its bad when Fox "News" polls seem less biased. Come to think of it, Is rasmussen owned by Murdoch and Co.??
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BillMcD
October 19, 2009 12:44 PM
A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Sarah Palin should not be viewed as a favorite for the Republican nomination in 20120
Because with any luck, she won't be around for another 18,111 years. :)
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tommyo
October 19, 2009 12:49 PM
What a shame.
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Minnesotan
October 19, 2009 12:51 PM
Scott Rasmussen normally does some weird stuff with his polls, this one being no exception. My main question is why did he pit these candidates in hypothetical heads-up matches? We all know the GOP primary is (most likely) going to be crowded so why not toss them all in together? Something tells me that Romney and Huckabee dip into the same pool of voters, and that Palin's loyalists could giver her a plurality in a jammed field. For her to win, the key is to have as many candidates splitting the vote as possible and relying on her zealots to carry the day.
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El Puerco
October 19, 2009 1:27 PM in reply to Minnesotan
Exactly. The GOP primaries are multi-candidate, winner-take-all plurality elections. If in a three-way race Palin has the strongest group of supporters, even if they only amount to 35%, she could still will if Romney and Huckabee evenly split the opposition. I think Ras is hoping that Palin won't run and hence is publicizing the least favorable numbers possible.
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Minne sconsin
October 19, 2009 1:38 PM in reply to El Puerco
My thoughts too. Toss another candidate or two into the mix, and Huckabee & Romney are splitting that 50%. Palin's 35-40% carries the day.
Another element in the Daddy Party is that they tend to be followers. Once someone is the frontrunner, all pressure is on for others to get out of the field. Even if the frontrunner hasn't gotten 50% of the vote. (See McCain, John, 2008)
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Minnesotan
October 19, 2009 2:24 PM in reply to Minne sconsin
One other theory: the GOP and Rasmussen don't want her to be portrayed as the frontrunner this early in the game. Early frontrunner status is almost the mark of the beast in the presidential election game, as it puts a ton of pressure on the anointed "frontrunner" and any early stumbles can kill a campaign. It almost did so to McCain, and certainly it was a factor in Hillary Clinton's faltered presidential bid. Knowing that she has a propensity for wilting in the spotlight, methinks that the pollster is trying to cast her as an "underdog" - where she plays much better politically - who can fly under the radar a little bit more while Romney, Huckabee et al are under more intense scrutiny. As the primaries near, watch the storyline be about how she has "momentum" and is gaining on the "frontrunners" like Romney.
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Mr.E.
October 19, 2009 3:27 PM in reply to Minnesotan
I disagree. I think Huckabee and Palin are playing to the same, diminishing pool of evangelicals, who the Rs initially roped in with Nixon's Southern Strategy. Huckabee is the more dangerous because 1) he has more political credibility, 2) he is from the South, and 3)he can make his crazy sound reasonable. Palin is better at stirring up the most crazed followers by throwing more red meat. If all three are running, Huckabee will never be able to out-crazy Palin, and neither can touch Romney on economic gravitas. But none can win without the entire base AND independents. Independents dislike Palin, and that will get worse. Romney lacks charisma and nobody really likes him. Huckabee is a good salesman, but the more he goes after the support of the base to win the primary, the more he loses independents.
Shorter: until the Rs stop pandering to the base, and instead start directing their attention to independents, implying to the right wing, "you may not like us, but we're better than the other guys, so watcha gonna do?" they are stuck fighting an increasingly uphill battle against demographics.
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JimmyBobby
October 19, 2009 4:25 PM in reply to Mr.E.
Yes, Huck's a good salesman. Problem for him is, he looks, acts and smells like a salesman. (Nothing wrong with salesmen, guys, just playing into a stereotype to make a point.)
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GregorZap
October 19, 2009 12:59 PM
Huckabee/Palin in 2012. If you vote against them, you're going straight to hell. If you vote for them, hell will come to us.
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_jonny_5_
October 19, 2009 1:54 PM in reply to GregorZap
Nice...
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Mr.E.
October 19, 2009 3:29 PM in reply to GregorZap
Call it the Rapture Party
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Hidden Oak
October 19, 2009 1:19 PM
She's toast. Her only future is as a GOP sock puppet on Fox, reading GOP talking points copy.
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JimmyBobby
October 19, 2009 2:24 PM
Still depressing news. All three of them should trail my cat in the polls.
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Dorn76
October 19, 2009 3:04 PM in reply to JimmyBobby
Is that furball running again? Smart move to try and split the pet-lover vote between her and the "pitbull with lipstick".
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Lou
October 19, 2009 3:29 PM
Even the poll taken a few weeks ago at a gathering of GOP Palin came out real low.
Huckabee won that too...
Wonder if the GOP is listening.
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TheraP
October 19, 2009 4:43 PM
Wait.... I thought just Dems were against her! Do you mean to say repubs are being mean too? Poor widdle sarah. What will she do now?
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