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Poll: Specter In Serious Danger On Re-Election
Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2009, 12:28PM
Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)
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A new Susquehanna poll has some awful numbers for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), with him stuck in a dead heat for re-election -- and a huge majority of the state's voters saying he doesn't deserve re-election.
Only 31% of voters said Specter should be re-elected, with 59% saying someone else should be given a chance. It's not surprising to learn that Specter has a large base of opposition -- after all, he switched from the Republicans to the Democrats in order to avoid defeat in the GOP primary at the hands of former Rep. Pat Toomey -- but that's quite bad.
For his Democratic primary, in which he's now being challenged by Rep. Joe Sestak, Specter holds a lead of 44%-16%, with very high undecideds and the incumbent under 50% against an opponent who is not well known statewide. In a general election against Toomey, Specter has 42% to Toomey's 41%, within the ±3.7% margin of error.
Unfortunately, a Toomey vs. Sestak match-up was not tested, which would have given us an interesting comparison.
(Via Greg Sargent.)
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Homefries
October 14, 2009 12:40 PM
Arlen has fought harder for health reform than a lot of other Demos, looks like to me. If he keeps giving the good fight, who cares that he was once Republican?
Not only that, I bet some of the other Republicans are secretly envying him, given the carnage that they've been having to endure.
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DCCyclone
October 14, 2009 12:47 PM
Methinks Joe Sestak is going to be the next Senator from Pennsylvania come January 2011.
The Specter reelect and trial heat general numbers might end up being the last straw.
I always assumed, many months ago when the punditry wrote him off, that Sestak would be a strong challenge to Specter and would at least run close in the primary, simply based on cash-on-hand. Everyone back then seemed to ignore that Sestak already had banked MILLIONS, not just hundreds of thousands, and that alone meant he would have high name recognition and his message would be well-known by the primary.
Now, if Sestak runs a good campaign, I actually expect he'll win. That's a big "if," as we're learning this fall from Creigh Deeds and Chris Christie who are running terrible campaigns, worse than expected.
And regarding next November, I don't care how close Toomey polls now, the Repugs are at their high water mark and will recede next year. Either Sestak or Specter will win next November.
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Schmed
October 14, 2009 1:55 PM in reply to DCCyclone
Sestak is going to have to overcome the full court press from the DNC and Obama -- they're foursquare in Arlen's corner.
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_jonny_5_
October 14, 2009 2:28 PM in reply to Schmed
The question I have is...
How hard are they really going to push in the Dem primary?
I know Obama said he would campaign for Spector in the General, but I suspect that if Arlen's number don't improve we'll here much less out of the Administration until after the primaries.
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El Puerco
October 14, 2009 3:41 PM
Honestly, I think Obama might be irrelevant in the Democratic primary. I'm involved in my local, central PA Democratic committee, and we are all excited about Sestak, who gave an awesome speech to our group a couple of weeks ago. His theme was "accountable leadership," and how Arlen has basically not been held to account for various failings.
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BrewhouseBob
October 14, 2009 3:41 PM
I live in PA and there is NO WAY I'd ever vote for Arlen. He was the Senate Judiciary chairman during the Bush-Cheney years... Nuff said.
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Cool Blue Reason
October 14, 2009 5:50 PM in reply to BrewhouseBob
Even versus Toomey in the general?
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BrewhouseBob
October 14, 2009 6:01 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
No, Cool Blue, not even in the general. If he beats Sestak in the primary I will not cast a vote for either party in the primary. There's no way I could vote for Toomey. For the past 6 years I've been telling Specter that if he does not uphold his sworn duty to protect the U.S. Constitution I will not vote for him. Unlike Specter, I am a man of my word. Specter should have grown some balls long ago.
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Walter Mitty
October 14, 2009 4:35 PM
Sestak with machine backing would be unbeatable - however Sestak pissed off the Rendell and Obama political machines when he wouldn't get out of the way for Specter.
Obama and Rendell will have to do heavy lifting to get Specter re-elected, though it's not impossible. Democrats will be reminded early and often that Specter voted with George Bush 95% of the time, and I'm sure Toomey will even highlight some of Specters votes that Democrats really won't like. And Specter will not be able to reach out to Republicans for help as he bolted on them because he was scared of a primary loss, and started voting hardcore Dem almost over night.
Specter's best play would have been to become an independent - at least that way he could have kept some moderate Republican respect, as well as some moderate Democrat votes as well.
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VACommonsense
October 14, 2009 5:59 PM
Age is also a factor in this race. Specter will be 80 in 2010, and while 50 may be the new 30, 80 is still 80. Some people will not vote for him because of this fact alone, even if they have supported him in the past.
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bilejones
October 14, 2009 6:01 PM
Specter is a particularly nasty piece of shit, one of the foulest that Washington has to offer, and when you see what the competition is, that's saying something.
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MollyNYC
October 14, 2009 6:26 PM
Integrity issues aside, isn't he pushing 80? Even if he were a terrific senator (if only!), his age in itself suggests that it's time to hang it up. And the polling phrase " . . . someone else should be given a chance" implies that the pollees noticed his age too.
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