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Poll: Toomey Narrowly Leading Specter And Sestak
Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)
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The new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has some good news for Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey, with him edging out both Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter and Dem primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak.
In a match-up with Specter, Toomey has 43% support to Specter's 42%. These two guys have been enemies for years, since Toomey narrowly lost in his 2004 Republican primary challenge to the then-GOPer Specter -- and his primary challenge this time around spurred Specter into switching to the Democrats.
Against Sestak, Toomey has 38% to Sestak's 35%. Both results are within the ±3% margin of error.
Also, Specter leads Sestak in the Democratic primary, but is below the crucial 50% mark: Specter 44%, Sestak 25%.
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pittprof
October 1, 2009 10:07 AM
This is, after all, the state that elected Rick Santorum to two terms in the Senate...
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mdiogu
October 1, 2009 10:16 AM
Toomey is not going to win this forget this poll. Though, I had hoped that Sestak had a better showing than he has so far. Sigh
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pittprof
October 1, 2009 10:34 AM in reply to mdiogu
I agree that the odds still favor the Democratic nominee in this race, but I don't think Toomey's chances of winning in PA are negligible --and we would be fools to dismiss this poll.
Let's be real here: the Democrats are not going to have another resounding victory in the 2010 midterms. Remember: in 2006 we won because independents defected from the Republicans en masse and because many Republicans just didn't show up --but Republican voters are more energized now against this government than they were when Bush and the GOP were running things and disappointing them at every turn. In 2008 we picked up so many seats in both chambers thanks to so many young, minority and first-time voters who turned out to support Obama in droves --but don't count on them turning out in the midterms, especially now that (inevitably) all that excitement has turned into disappointment at how the Democrats are incapable of getting their platform through Congress, even when they control every lever of power and have a super-majority in the Senate.
Expect to lose a few seats in both cambers next year. Then the Democratic leadership will be able to return to their old and comfortable position: "we wish we could get [insert Democratic cause] passed, but we just don't have the 60 votes to do so in the Senate."
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 1, 2009 10:29 AM
Has anyone noticed that Specter's actually become a much better Democrat than Ben Nelson, Landrieu, Bayh, Baucus, Conrad, or half a dozen others I could name if I put my mind to it? Whatever his motives, I could totally live with the old coot if Toomey is the alternative.
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exregis
October 1, 2009 10:41 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Yeah, but Spector is a lovable old coot precisely because he's up for re-election. In six years he'll be 103 or so years old and may not be interested in re-running. He'll be under no pressure to continue to be lovable. It's not a pleasant sight watching a cootie bug turn and turn again.
But then again, we do need more moderates in the Congress. Too bad all the moderates are either Democrats or female Mainiacs.
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human
October 1, 2009 11:49 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Dude, don't kid yourself, Specter is only being a good Democrat because he has a primary challenge and he's up for re-election.
If he gets past that(and I'd almost rather see Toomey win just to get rid of Specter once and for all, almost), he'll be right back to his old backstabbing, narcissistic ways.
Trust me, I've lived in Pa. for years and I've seen this prima donna in action for far too long. Specter represents Specter, period. Obama shouldn't have committed to supporting him in the primary, just should have said he'll let the process play out and support the Dem nominee.
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Russell
October 1, 2009 10:52 AM
My brother lives in Pennsylvania, is a hard core conservative republican ( but hates the likes of the Becks and Co) and he even says Toomey is toast. So I've got to think he knows more about local politics in Penn than the rest of the nation as he has lived there for more than 30 years. Is it possible a far right wing nut could win there, sure. And it's also possible pigs will fly, but doubtful anytime soon as evolution takes time. If Dems lose seats in 2010 the reason will be a lack of enthusiasm from Dem voters having soured on the cowardly actions of the Senate Dems and not any resurgence of the republican party. I've said it once, I'll say it again..the likes and insanity of the Becks, Limbaughs and such driving the narrative for the chickenlittle party of the GOP has made them a regional party at best and possibly a disappering act altogether by 2020. No national party in the USA of the future has a chance to succeed on a 50 state level with only older white male support...it's just not possible numerically.
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fnord12
October 1, 2009 10:54 AM
Note that there are a lot more undecideds when it's Toomey vs. Sestak. Sestak is an unknown to a lot of people and Toomey probably is, too. There's room for both to improve, whereas i think a small but meaningful percentage is dead set against Spector.
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go2goal
October 1, 2009 1:49 PM
The more shock waves that the Dems get the better - especially Obama and the threat of losing the majority in the senate and/or the house.
I'm almost ready to vote for anyone that's not in office in D.C. I'm so frustrated and disappointed with Obama.....Bush destroyed the country and Obama is just kicking cans down the road.
Frankly - we can't afford to host the Olympics in Chicago. It pisses me off that Obama is Denmark lobbying to bring the games to the US. We don't another expensive Olympics - we need health care, we need a balanced budget, we need JOBS.....and not government jobs. No Country has ever made a red penny on the Olympics.
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