Is Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) a definite no vote now? In response to the news that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will include a public option (with an opt out clause) in his health care legislation, Snowe says she's not happy.
"I am deeply disappointed with the Majority Leader's decision to include a public option as the focus of the legislation," Snowe said in a statement. "I still believe that a fallback, safety net plan, to be triggered and available immediately in states where insurance companies fail to offer plans that meet the standards of affordability, could have been the road toward achieving a broader bipartisan consensus in the Senate."
How explicit a statement is that, though? I could be over-parsing here, but it sounds to me as if she's leaving a door pretty wide open to supporting this bill down the line. Note, she doesn't say she's withdrawing her support. And note as well that she says she thinks triggers could have been the path to broader bipartisan consensus--i.e. instead of being the path to just one Republican vote (hers), triggers might have won over a few more GOPers.
She's said she doesn't support the opt out. She's also said it would be very hard for her not to join a Republican health care filibuster under these circumstances. But, despite what Reid said, it's not clear to me that she's completely jumped ship.

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mans_best_friend
October 26, 2009 5:09 PM
My take: Harry Reid has been counting votes and has decided he doesn't need her. She's overplayed her hand.
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musgrove
October 26, 2009 5:10 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Yep, if Reid thinks he has 60 with out her, then she is no longer needed.
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CN
October 26, 2009 5:36 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Translation: "I am deeply disappointed with the Majority Leader's decision not to kiss my ass."
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cazart
October 26, 2009 7:09 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
History is calling, Senator. Don't tell us you turned your ringer off.
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Ethan
October 26, 2009 10:48 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Reid is pretty damn cautious, so it's not like he made this bill without being sure he could get every Democrat to vote for cloture on it.
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kash79
October 26, 2009 5:12 PM
It sounds to me as if she's leaving a door pretty wide open to supporting this bill down the line. Note, she doesn't say she's withdrawing her support.
More importantly, by not saying she's withdrawing her support, she wants to keep herself relevant, in the debate. Also, if in a parallel universe, if she supports a PO, I think its a huge signal she is ready to change party letter from R to D.
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tosh
October 26, 2009 5:58 PM in reply to kash79
100% correct. And the White House / Rahm wants he to stay in the process.
I'm fully expecting that Snowe will make a floor speach similar to his FiCom speach saying there are things she doesn't like in the bill, but this is a moment in history and she needs to be in the right side of history. Then vote for Cloture and vote for the bill.
Rahm and others will try to use that to keep the bill from drifting towards the House Bill.
That strategy *didn't* work when she pulled it coming out of the Fi-Com vote, even with the White House and the media lining up behind her as the Great Bipartisan Hope.
I think that strategy will work even less if Nancy lines up her votes, and as we continue to see the polling work in the Dems favor. Honestly don't think Nancy gives a flying fuck about Snowe, and it's clear that Harry got tired of her being used as a wedge and went on without her. Snowe and the White House may try to drag her along. But my guess is that if she vote for cloture and for the bill that Nancy, Harry and the rest of the confrees will see that calling her bluff will only result in her still being on board in the end.
If she doesn't vote for cloture, votes against the bill and it passes the Senate heading into Conference, the Dems will also blow off worrying about here.
Frankly she misplayed her Woman Of The Moment In History hand. She really should have picked one thing that had to go, and then moved strongly *left* of the Baucus Bill on _everything_ else. That would have made getting her vote worth something to the Dems: her pound of flesh to gives cover to all of the ConservaDems to move strongly to the left on the rest of the bill. And made it tougher to pitch her overboard. It looks like she (and her enablers) overreached to the point that Harry thought the take-aways were bigger negatives than any positive she could bring to the table.
John
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Neil
October 26, 2009 7:29 PM in reply to tosh
right. i think the most important point there is about the polls and the momentum towards a public option. the thing is, it's really hard to argue against a public option.
which is why i never really understood Reich's concern that the moment for HCI reform was passing. while i understand sooner is better, and strike while the iron is hot, and all that... the PO is a political winner, and the demand will only become stronger.
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Lestatdelc
October 26, 2009 9:13 PM in reply to tosh
I think the anonymous sourcing about the White House not supporting the opt-out and such is all bunk. Snowe has overplayed her hand, as would any Dem who thinks they can use their vote to exact concessions, etc. They don't want to be the Democrat who kills healthcare reform.
Simply put, I think the administration and others have kept the cards close to the chest and didn't draw many lines in the sand in order to get the process this far without those lines in the sand, or themselves, to become oppositional lightning rods.
So now it is at the point where it really is put-up or shut-up times and we will have 60 on cloture with a Medicare +5, and an opt-out.
The real pivotal part in the Senate is to put into the bill via amendment a Wyden free-choice one, which would allow anyone access to the purchasing the PO coverage.
If that is the basic outlines of the merged bill out of the Senate, then it will be a huge victory both policy-wise and politically.
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FreeRider
October 26, 2009 5:13 PM
Snowe has suddenly become irrelevant and will remain that way if she says she won't support this bill. She will have a chance to help shape the bill if she stays under the Democratic tent but she'll get nothing this way.
Fine by me.
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Neil
October 26, 2009 7:33 PM in reply to FreeRider
right. and that fact that she had her 15 minutes and didn't deliver, places the onus on her and Republicans far more than if she and the few Rep moderates had been shut out.
Which is why i always agreed with the wisdom of bringing her to the table, to at least try to accommodate her, within reason.
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mcc
October 26, 2009 5:13 PM
Isn't at least one group running commercials in Maine?
That should continue or double or something. We need to engineer a situation where if the Maine senators fail to vote with their constituents on this, there will be consequences for them.
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matyra
October 26, 2009 5:58 PM in reply to mcc
Plus, there are the polls in Maine: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1009/Maine_polls_shows_support_for_Obama_plan_public_option.html
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Indie Pro
October 26, 2009 5:14 PM
I could see a scenario where she'd still advocate her plan a few days ago, but now, whatever it is that Reid is offering, might be doable for her. I think it is possible.
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Xantar
October 26, 2009 5:19 PM
This is sort of reminding me of when John McCain claimed that Obama's refusal to do weekly town halls is the reason why he resorted to attack ads and winking nods to the insane rightwing base.
To wit: "Even though you're in the position of strength in all the ways that count, you should still listen to me and do what I want. Why aren't you listening to me? I'm deeply disappointed that you have decided to treat me as if I'm now irrelevant to the process. Come on! I was enjoying the spotlight for a while there!"
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jcd
October 26, 2009 6:07 PM in reply to Xantar
Exactly. Perfect! What's so great here is that for the first time since like the Johnson administraton, congressIonal Dems actually ACTED like they KNEW they had the power hand. And--yes, the Earth still spins on its axis--over the resistance of a Democratic White House. Quite a day!
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Buckeye Terrorist Fist Jab Nation
October 26, 2009 5:20 PM
Triggers could have been the road to....
how about more of the same inertia on healthcare reform.
Say "G'night" Olympia.
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converse
October 26, 2009 5:22 PM
Who's she think she's kiddin? Not one friggin rethug besides her would even think of voting for a trigger. "Broader bipartisan support" my ass.
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Stroszek
October 26, 2009 5:23 PM
Dear Olympia,
STFU.
Love,
History
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agio
October 26, 2009 5:28 PM in reply to Stroszek
Is it too early to cue Nelson Muntz?
HA ha!
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mgmonklewis
October 26, 2009 5:39 PM in reply to Stroszek
I cosign Stroszek's post.
President Snowe now has our permission to go preen behind the Big Podium Of Her Own Choosing on her own time. When the grown-ups are discussing health care, she is kindly invited to STFU and stop bothering the rest of us with her self-importance.
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Mr.E.
October 26, 2009 5:29 PM
"I'm shocked, shocked, that a PO is being offered that is supported by 60-70% of the population."
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athenian stranger
October 26, 2009 5:30 PM
I really wonder why she did this. Can't say that I will miss seeing her Olive-Oil act anymore. I think Republicans started to believe their own hype.
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Shrubbit
October 26, 2009 6:04 PM
"...to be triggered and available immediately in states where insurance companies fail to offer plans that meet the standards of affordability..."
Gotta be f-ing kidding me. She just described the status quo. Is she DENSE?
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jeaton
October 26, 2009 6:14 PM
Dear Olympia,
Please get on board or STFU.
Thank you.
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jeaton
October 26, 2009 6:16 PM in reply to jeaton
Damn, Stroszek got there first. I should read every post before adding my 2 cents.
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lousgirl84
October 26, 2009 6:15 PM
She comes from a state where the people only have (I believe) one insurance company to choose from.
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lousgirl84
October 26, 2009 6:21 PM
I just checked. They have one - Anthem Health. I guess they are funding her big time
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Neil
October 26, 2009 7:38 PM in reply to lousgirl84
right-o. that's the political end game. that's the stuff of Republican nightmares.
how many Republicans will be campaigning to opt-out, in favor of maintaining their current HCI monopoly, who just happens to be an enormous campaign contributor and bundler as well.
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timba
October 26, 2009 6:24 PM
Here's my answer to Olympia (and her sidekick Sue):
http://www.actblue.com/page/obamafight
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acf_ma
October 26, 2009 6:24 PM
Olympia Snowe was just stringing things along with the pretense of participating. The longer this went, the greater the chance of defeating it outright, or crippling the resulting bill. In no case was there ever going to be any bipartisan support from this Republican party. None.
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theone718
October 26, 2009 6:30 PM
Let me put this frankly. If Snowe votes for the Senatebill I GURANTEE YOU it moves to the right in committee. If she doesnt' it moves to the left.
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CareyInLA
October 26, 2009 6:30 PM
"...could have been the road toward achieving a broader bipartisan consensus in the Senate."
Well, Olympia you should have dug out your magic wand much earlier if you really believe this. There was no evidence whatsoever that you were bringing anyone along but yourself. If one Republican can make a consensus "bipartisan" then you can still pull this trick off all by yourself, by not trying to shut down the will of most Americans.
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DaddyD
October 26, 2009 6:35 PM
Dear Olympia:
na na na na
na na na na
hey hey hey
goo-ood bie!
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GuyFromLA
October 26, 2009 6:40 PM
90% of her state's health insurance market is dominated by Blue Cross and she is 'Deeply Disappointed' that Public Option is in the Senate Bill? People of Maine, you need a new senator.
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hewhohasnoname
October 26, 2009 7:14 PM in reply to GuyFromLA
I think it will be hard for her to vote for it. Democrats essentially daring her to vote against a healthcare bill.
Republican Senators in states that support healthcare reform will have to explain to their constituents why they voted against an historic healthcare bill.
Frankly, I've always wondered how tightly the Republican caucus will actually be when the bill goes to the floor. Voting against a healthcare bill will be hard to explain to voters, especially after you've already voted against an economic recovery plan.
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hewhohasnoname
October 26, 2009 7:15 PM in reply to hewhohasnoname
I meant that I think it will be hard for her to vote against it.
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EH
October 26, 2009 8:21 PM in reply to hewhohasnoname
She's probably frustrated that the bill isn't easier for her to vote against. If PO-OO had been excised from the bill (in favor of triggers or whatever), the popular opinion would have swung against the bill in anger and so she could have voted against it for lack of perfection. A better bill (PO-OO) means she's in a tougher position of having to vote against her constituency vs. voting against her contributors.
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jdb316
October 26, 2009 9:38 PM in reply to hewhohasnoname
They'll justify the vote by saying that the public option will increase their taxes, take medical decisions out of their hands and all the other typical GOP talking points. And if this opt-out really comes to pass, the heat will fall on the Governor and State Legislatures while the Congressmen/women and Senators continue to get to grandstand on GOP "principles."
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cwnidog
October 26, 2009 6:55 PM
I hear that she also still believes in the Easter Bunny, as well.
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mikedrevguy
October 26, 2009 6:58 PM
broader bipartisanship??? but it appears that having both the GOP and Dem parties working on this would not produce anything that would be of ultimate benefit to those in society that do not have access to healthcare coverage - would simply have maintained the leverages the Ins. companies have exercised to extract 420% increased in earnings. - well, yes indeed, we need a paradigmatic shift in our thinking and priorities - and who it is that we charge with being our leaders.
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xargaw
October 26, 2009 7:07 PM
Triggers have NEVER worked. They only serve as a initial cover for legislative cowardice. Triggers have never been implemented. Anyone that calls for triggers is only attempting to snow the public which is quite fitting for Olympia Snowe.
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dougom
October 26, 2009 8:02 PM
Snowe flurries cleared up, apparently.
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truthspeaker
October 26, 2009 8:07 PM
I can't wait to hear what Shannity, and the limp one have to say now. I hope I can hear the hair being torn from their scalps on the radio. The 'pugs' will be toast 2010. I am personally hoping they FAIL.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
October 26, 2009 8:30 PM
Awwwwww, Senator Concern Troll is concerned.
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Rich in NJ
October 26, 2009 11:09 PM
I'm deeply disappointed that Snowe cares about remaining a member of a party that ridicules her core principles.
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granparocks
October 27, 2009 12:10 AM
i am very happy with this week's proceedings. however, i don't get the hate on snowe. to me, it seems vindictive and unbecoming of (victorious for the moment) progressives. she tried to move the debate in a civil manner. she played her cards fairly, and she lost. she's just looking for some political cover at this point. can you blame her?
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VexSmith
October 27, 2009 1:01 AM
"can you blame her?",
Well, yes I can. A bit anyway. She's smart enough to foresee this and it just makes her past month seem theatrical. I was never counting on her, which is perhaps a comment on her acting ability.
Maybe I'll be proven wrong and if so I'll apologize.
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Heretic
October 27, 2009 3:25 AM
Who care cares what the ugly old bitch thinks about anything? Another small-stater who represents no one. Maine can just opt out if they want (but they won't).
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aikbay
October 27, 2009 3:30 AM
Dear Senator Snowejob - The train has left the station. Say your goodbyes. Hope you freeze your ass off sitting at the train station waiting for the train to come back because it ain't coming back.
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impik
October 27, 2009 9:42 AM
Oh well, it's heartbreaking to realyze that you're NOT really the presdent, as you might have thought over the past few months.
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coolsocks
October 27, 2009 9:53 AM
When this healthcare battle is finished, Snowe will fall into oblivion. Or, she will go down in history as the woman who did nothing but create obstacles to reform. Looks like her 15 minutes of fame are up. Special props to Reid.
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