I covered the last two major races in Virginia, where Democrats were down and out until the last minute and then surged to win close victories. Given the gains Barack Obama made registering new voters and his wide margin last fall, I had been doubtful that all the hand-wringing over the bad polls for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds was warranted.

But after several recent chats with my sources there and speaking tonight with a well-informed and loyal Democratic fundraiser, I am starting to understand why some in the party are worried about the upcoming election.

This Northern Virginia Democrat has helped raise thousands of dollars for the Deeds campaign and has been personally involved in several races.

"It's almost like the Virginia version of the McCain campaign - an ugly primary and then a mismatch of people thrown into one ship," the source said.

When Deeds won the summer Democratic primary, some of his longtime aides left the campaign to be replaced with more seasoned political hands from Washington.

My source said some are even worried about the problems at the top of the ticket dragging down races for the state House.

"If they had a message they lost it pretty quick," the source said, believing the Deeds campaign seems to be too focused on social issues related to GOP candidate Bob McDonnell's thesis and not spending enough time talking about jobs and the economy.

Deeds' his onetime rival Terry McAuliffe (D) told TPMDC today that talking about the economy is a winning strategy.

Another Democrat has a different take.

"Creigh is a strong finisher, I've seen it first hand," said Jesse Ferguson, who was a spokesman for Deeds' other primary opponent Brian Moran. "He is making the case to hire him so we can keep a good thing going while making clear that Bob McDonnell is too extreme for Virginia."

Late update: Deeds adviser Mo Elleithee writes in:

"Creigh's always been a strong closer, and he's well-positioned to close strong again. He's going to keep talking about his positive vision on issues like education, jobs and transportation, while continuing to draw a contrast with Bob McDonnell's backwards social agenda. Despite Bob McDonnell's onslaught of false ads, we're in a pretty good position going into the final two weeks."