Are Senate centrists trying to broker a comeback for the so-called trigger option?
Two key conservative Democrats say they, along with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) haven't given up hope.
"There's a possibility that [triggers could make a comeback]," said Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). "Right now, we don't know what the actual version of the plan is, because it hasn't come back from CBO...so I think when we get that back, we'll take a look and see what the scoring is, and maybe figure out what chance that plan has to get enough votes. My expectation is that it probably doesn't have enough to get 60 votes to get off the floor if it gets on the floor."
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he has not asked the CBO to score a Snowe's proposal--a move that caused her to all but write the trigger's obituary. But centrists have been collaborating informally on efforts to pull the bill back in their direction, and today, the mood seems very different.
"[I]n the event that there's not--that the reforms that we've put in place [don't create competition and drive down costs], then there could potentially be a trigger or a fallback position," Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) said this morning. "So that is kind of where [Olympia Snowe and I] are believing that we should reform the private market first, if the private market fails to reform, or refuses to reform, then there would be a fallback position."
"I wouldn't count it out," Landrieu said. "I would not count it out."
Late update: TPMDC interviewed Howard Dean earlier today. He weighed in on the centrists but also blasted a trigger public option.
"A trigger is a farce, that's worthless," Dean said.
--cb

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mans_best_friend
November 3, 2009 2:02 PM
So let's give Lucy one more chance to hold the football. Just one more time. This is the last chance. Really.
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Xantar
November 3, 2009 2:43 PM
Is Brian Beutler practicing the use of the Cavuto Mark?
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CJ
November 3, 2009 2:57 PM
I agree with Howard Dean that a trigger is a farce. But as a red state progressive, it holds out more hope for the poor and disenfranchised where I live than the Blue State Public Option (i.e., public option with an opt-out). With a trigger, progressives everywhere continue to fight for reform. Without the Blue State Public Option, blue state progressives (so-called) get theirs while leaving the rest to wither on the vine.
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Tanjaoui
November 3, 2009 4:03 PM in reply to CJ
I disagree. Here's why: I can't see how other states will hold out if it works (and there's every reason to believe it will for those individuals who qualify to sign up for it). Honestly, any state that opts out will change leadership so fast it will make your head spin; I can't imagine another scenario with the opt out. It will be just like the stimulus money. Lots of bluster, but they all took it, Democrat and Republican alike. On the other hand, I can see insurance companies gaming the trigger indefinitely, especially now that the Supreme Court is about to rule that corporations have the same rights as individuals when it comes to campaign contributions. All politicians, no matter what their affiliation, will be at the mercy of corporate donors, including insurers: take our money and win, or refuse it and lose. But...I'm always ready to listen to other points of view.
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CJ
November 3, 2009 4:41 PM in reply to Tanjaoui
With due respect, you don't know the first thing about the politics of red states.
For example, I've lived in Georgia all of my life.
We have among the highest poverty rates in the nation. We have among the highest infant mortality rates in the nation. We have among the highest high-school drop out rates in the nation. We have among the highest imprisonment rates in the nation. We have among the lowest SAT scores in the nation. We have anti-gay resolutions, disclaimers about evolution on science textbooks, and resolutions reaffirming our right to secede from the union.
Georgia never has a budget crisis. When revenues fall, they simply slash education funding, indigent defense funding, public transportation funding, and other public programs while simultaneously providing corporate giveaways citing the notion behind the Laffer Curve.
We haven't changed leadership yet.
I live among these people. They're my parents, my siblings, my life-long friends. Progressives are outnumbered. The poor, elderly and imprisoned (many wrongfully) are disenfranchised. Georgia, among others, WILL opt-out -- whether you agree or not.
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Indie Pro
November 3, 2009 5:23 PM in reply to CJ
as a Texan, I understand.
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Andreams
November 3, 2009 6:27 PM in reply to Tanjaoui
In Florida, the senate, house and governor are all repubs and they would opt out in a heartbeat. We have one of the highest rates of uninsured and unemployed in the country but it doesn't matter. Before our governor started running for the senate, he was saying we have guaranteed coverage - and we do - if you consider paying $400 a month for 6 doctor visits a year, coverage.
Voters will never trump political donations and I guarantee you, Florida politicians would see more money than ever.
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mgmonklewis
November 3, 2009 3:06 PM
What possible triggers could there be that wouldn't have been tripped oh, say, fifteen years ago? This is just another ploy by those conservative preening ninnies in the House of Lords to kill health care reform.
Also: I am so sick of seeing that spineless troll-doll with a bad rug, Ben Nelson. If we have to be saddled with a certain number of craven do-nothings, could we at least get some who don't trigger our gag reflexes? Better sell-outs, please!
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abek
November 4, 2009 12:15 AM in reply to mgmonklewis
Triggers are only worthless if it remains in the hands in congress. If the trigger is placed in the hands of the Secretary of Health and Human Services (Kathleen Sebelius), the trigger could be more effective.
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Jbearlaw
November 3, 2009 3:10 PM
"Senate Centrists?" How many articles have been written on this site arguing that the polls show that a strong public option has the support of 70% of the American people? And you are still referring to these neanderthals as centrists?
They are conservatives and they are obstructionists. Either appellation would be more accurate than the one you used, Mr. Beutler.
Beutler? Beutler? Anyone? Anyone?
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Posture
November 3, 2009 4:26 PM in reply to Jbearlaw
I agree - how is Ben Nelson a centrist? I do not think that word means what you think it means.
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marklouis
November 3, 2009 3:32 PM
A trigger could work. Here are my conditions: people who earn under 250% of FPL cannot pay more than 3% of income for insurance, people over 250% cannot pay more than 7%. Ins. companies must use 85% of money brought in on actual health care. Ins. companies must bring down cost of all insurance by 50%, and rates cannot rise more than rate of inflation. 95% coverage must be achieved under these conditions.
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FlownOver
November 3, 2009 4:41 PM in reply to marklouis
Except that won't be what the trigger says. It'll be more like "Rates may not increase more than 300% per year."
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sbv
November 3, 2009 3:36 PM
am i missing something? didn't the latest AHIP report clearly show the intentions of the health care industry to raise, not lower premiums after some kind of health care reform is finally signing into law? the trigger is already here!
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 3, 2009 5:06 PM in reply to sbv
Well, yes, but only if you're not an obtuse dickhead. This story is about Nelson, Snowe, Landrieu, Lieberman and Bayh, however.
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CJ
November 3, 2009 3:42 PM
Great conditions! A trigger absolutely could work.
However, the fear is that even if the conditions were as strict and clear as you propose, those responsible for pulling the trigger would find a loophole, whether it exists or not, preventing them from doing so. Another concern is that such a trigger would be weakened or legislated away over time.
It's a good idea in concept, but in practice, it requires trusting politicians who have a conflict of interest because of their financial relationships with insurers that the trigger is supposed to keep honest (e.g., Evan Bayh's wife sits on Wellpoint's Board of Directors).
If at all possible, we should avoid kicking the can down the road.
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Mateo123
November 3, 2009 3:43 PM
You guys we have to reframe the debate. The question is whether Snowe and Nelson believe insurance companies can deny coverage for breast cancer treatment because someone had acne when they were seventeen? Do they believe insurance companies can deny treatment and refund premiums when a covered person makes a claim? If they do, then they will filibuster the bill.
We cannot accept that the public option signals the death knell for the moderates. There is a lot in this massive health care overhaul. If we want and insist on a public option, we also have to make sure the centrists understand that if they filibuster, they're filibustering treatment for women with breast cancer. They're filibustering a prevention of fraud. Is that really what they want to be associated with?
The right has done a good deal to make this about the public option and only about the public option. There are a great many important insurance reforms that are contained in the bills. Do you think that Snowe is going to oppose these reforms? Should she? Of course not. But if we only focus on the public option, she'll be inclined to fight back. So will Nellie.
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Barry Schwartz
November 3, 2009 4:00 PM
The great thing about the Trigger is that it's name makes one think of a gunshot wound.
("Public option" isn't as bad a name as it is reputed to be, because it makes Republicans publicly abusive. That's part of why the "Public Option" came out of obscurity into popularity.)
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synchronicity
November 3, 2009 4:08 PM
Great. Just take out the mandate and you can pretend to put a public option in the bill.
No true public option that actually cuts costs and is available to 'all' Americans = No Mandate!
I realize neither bill includes a public option which is why I ask that they just remove the mandate from both bills and then just get whatever reform they can.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 3, 2009 4:08 PM
"My expectation is that it probably doesn't have enough to get 60 votes to get off the floor if it gets on the floor."
Well shucks, Ben, which Democrats do you think will join the Republicans in opposing cloture, thwarting their party's primary domestic policy initiative of this Congress and thereby likely costing them the majority? Please do tell. We're quivering with anticipation. Gee, sure doesn't sound like you'll be one of them from the way you're talking.
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Tanjaoui
November 3, 2009 4:08 PM
I really don't see Snowe voting against cloture or the bill itself, even if it has a strong public option. She's not that stupid. But she is trying to use her power to get a trigger. I really would be surprised if it was a deciding issue for her, regardless of her statements.
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FlownOver
November 3, 2009 4:45 PM
Can't wait to see how Nelson& Landrieu do without Democratic support next time around. Me, I'm planning to contribute to whoever runs against them in either party; better an honest weasel than a lying weasel.
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izzatxeaux
November 3, 2009 5:22 PM in reply to FlownOver
Nelson got some more bad news yesterday:
Nebraska Polling Shows Support for PO
http://boldprogressives.org/nelsonpoll
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par4
November 3, 2009 4:49 PM
Trigger or no trigger,opt-in or opt-out doesn't matter this bill will stink to high Heaven and do nothing but force people to buy for profit insurance.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 3, 2009 5:04 PM in reply to par4
Yes, of course. That's why we have people who are uninsured. They hate the insurance companies so that they've decided they'd rather die for lack of coverage than in any way contribute to the profits of the insurance companies.
Has nothing to do with them being unable to get coverage due to preexisting conditions or inability to obtain coverage because they lack government subsidies or because insurers treat the individually insured differently from their large customers.
Why, I'll bet if you went to any of the millions of uninsured in this country and said "hey, we're going to help you out with the cost of insurance and we'll make sure they don't give you a different rate just because you're not employed by a big company or claim your acne was an "undisclosed preexisting condition" justifying recission, or refuse to insure you because you've been sick but there's a catch: you'll have to buy insurance from a private insurer," they'd spit in your face and tell you to go straight to hell, such is their rightous hatred of the insurers.
And hey, even if they were so misguided as to say "yes, please, thank you! Even with the help it'll be tight, but that will lift the horrible burden of worring about my family's health from my shoulders," it would still be better to let them all die than to see one red cent of extra profit go into the pockets of those horrible companies. What are their lives compared to our precious principles, after all?
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Indie Pro
November 3, 2009 5:36 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
many people who don't have insurance can't afford it. Depending on what regulations on premiums come out of these bills, the House has some (but so far not much), many won't be able to afford it after. Subsidies don't cover everyone.
and with premiums set to rise, as everyone knows they will, more and more Tax money will go to the insurance companies.
for "incremental" the democrats are sacrificing some families, and lots of treasure. Might sound ugly, but its true.
However you want to spin this bill, it mostly sucks (but some good will come of it). It's throwing money at the problem. But hey incremental bullcrap whatever. You know, cause medicare turned into single payer, I'm sure this will, or something.
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Stroszek
November 3, 2009 5:52 PM in reply to Indie Pro
CBO says this bill will significantly slow the growth of premiums, and if the new data regarding the MA reform is any indication, people on the individual market should see better plans available at significantly lower rates off the bat. This bill, in fact, lower the number of medical bankruptcies. Believe it or not, not having health insurance doesn't mean you won't get sick. Shocking, I know...
Of course, some people making over 400% FPL will be inconvenienced by this bill, but the utter indifference towards the millions of uninsured shown by yourself and the other internet whiners is, frankly, repulsive. What about the family making $20,000 a year that doesn't have shit now?
No, we're not going to get it perfect this time, but yes, we do have a moral imperative to get tens of millions of people covered.
There's nothing all that intelligent and clever about pointing out that the structural limitations of western democratic states prevents us from pursuing optimal solutions. It's a problem that we're all aware of. You're not telling us anything we don't know, and you're not cool or pure or anything for pretending that making this observation puts you in a more righteous position... especially when the cost of acting on your position would be millions of additional people dying and falling into bankruptcy.
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bluebell
November 3, 2009 7:09 PM in reply to Stroszek
You are not intelligent or clever or cool or pure just because you'll settle for a bad bill rather than work for a good one. The bill doesn't provide health care, it mandates insurance. I'm surprised you are concerned about the poor. When Democrats reformed welfare didn't they end poverty?
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Indie Pro
November 3, 2009 10:47 PM in reply to Stroszek
you can be as rosy as you wish, but you are still being rosy. Let's be honest, you have trouble being honest with yourself.
there is a good chance that by time this bill is voted on after conference there will be few, if any, price controls. There is a good chance the anemic PO will be farmed to private insurance. There are some Senators, Representatives and actvists fighting for there to be something/anything, but you are not one of them. It appears you are one of the people who wants something passed, anything passed, for the good of the party. Eww.
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Indie Pro
November 3, 2009 11:01 PM in reply to Stroszek
as far as Mass:
Massachusetts has the most expensive family health insurance premiums in the country, according to a new analysis that highlights the state’s challenge in trying to rein in medical costs after passage of a landmark 2006 law that mandated coverage for nearly everyone.
http://www.boston.com/news/health/articles/2009/08/22/bay_state_health_insurance_premiums_highest_in_country/
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izzatxeaux
November 3, 2009 5:19 PM
too late for these "centrists"
OFA goes All In on House Bill, emphasizing it's PO (Neg. Rates) will bring "real reform"
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/obamas-political-operation-pressuring-congress-to-back-public-option/
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rbe1
November 4, 2009 6:48 AM
Message to Harry Reid. Time to clean house and inform the assholes of the democratic right that it's support the caucus or hit the road.
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rbe1
November 4, 2009 7:05 AM
Thinking about the filibuster: I would have it work more or less as follows: the first vote for cloture requires 60 votes. Then after say ten days, another vote is called with 58 votes required. Ten days later, another requiring 56 votes. If after this period, there is no cloture, after an additional ten days, cloture becomes automatic and a simple majority is required for passage.
In the meantime, the opposition has this period to convince the leadership to drop the bill or to convince the majority to vote against their own bill. Also, anyone can call for additional cloture votes during the thirty days, subject to the rule in force during that period (60, 58, 56).
And another thing: I'm so tired of having to endure hearing about Olympia Fucking Snowe. Next to jolten Joe Lieberman, she's about the biggest pain in the ass to show up in the health care debate.
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Ellen Brandt, Ph.D.
November 6, 2009 6:27 PM
Your readers might be interested in knowing that I have formed brand-new Centrists groups on both Linked In and Twibes at Twitter.
As you might expect, the reception at Linked In has been superb. Twitter will be a harder sell, since it now seems to be 99 percent PR-firm-run script bots, catering to both the Far Left and the Far Right.
No matter. Actual Americans, particularly my own extremely disaffected Baby Boom generation, aged 46-63 in 2009, are moving fast towards the Center, no matter whether we formally identify ourselves as Republicans, Democrats, or Independents.
If you're interested in what Boomers are thinking right now, please take a look at my popular new series, Baby Boomers-The Angriest Generation. Here's the latest Index http://wp.me/pxD3J-2a
And if you're at Linked In, especially, consider joining the new Centrists group. I think we're going to become a source of important information in the months and years ahead.
Thank you.
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