Moderate and conservative Democrats want to empower an outside entitlement commission to reshape major domestic spending programs like Medicare and Social Security, and they're threatening a truly nuclear option to get their way. If Congress does not create this commission, they say, they will vote against must-pass legislation to raise the nation's debt ceiling, which would trigger a default, and, perhaps, economic calamity.
"I will not vote for raising the debt limit without a vehicle to handle this," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) told McClatchy. "This is our moment."
On the one hand, the threat is so outlandish as to be self-defeating. Would Democrats really extract such a devastating toll, both on their own political fortunes, but also on the national and global economy, just to prove that they're serious about entitlement reform?
But on the other hand, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not want to rock the boat too hard in the midst of a health care debate in which Democrats are hanging their political fortunes on many of the same centrist senators making the threat. And the Obama administration has been broadly supportive of the idea of reining in deficits and paying down the national debt for some time now.
So it seems fairly likely that, whether this commission passes in the form deficit hawks would like to see, debt reduction will be a key theme, both at the White House and on Capitol Hill, after the fight over health care is over.
The White House referred questions about the specific proposal to the Treasury Department, but Press Secretary Robert Gibbs did say "The president, as many do in America, has long-term concerns about our debt and our deficit. Throughout the next several weeks and certainly into next year and beyond the president will continue to take steps to address fiscal responsibility."
Treasury Department spokeswoman Meg Reilly did not respond directly to questions about the threat. Instead, she said the expectation is that the debt limit legislation will pass. "Our best estimate is that we will reach the debt ceiling in mid-to late-December. However, the government's cash flows are volatile, and forecasting the precise date remains a difficult exercise. We expect Congress to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner," Reilly said.
Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) is one of the Democrats leading the charge for this commission, and he met with Obama last week to discuss the idea. As proposed, it would hand a significant amount of Congressional authority over entitlement programs to an outside body. That body would make recommendations that Congress would have to vote on, up or down--no filibusters.
That's a bridge way too far for liberals, who see the commission as a backdoor approach to gutting Social Security. And that raises the question of what will happen when the debt-ceiling legislation actually hits the floor.
With the Senate just back from Thanksgiving recess, everything is speculative. The commission could be weakened, in order to relieve some liberal heartburn, or Obama could introduce his own ideas and gather support from the entire caucus. If Reid really wanted to play hardball, he could attach the debt-ceiling bill to the defense appropriations bill, making it politically difficult for anybody--even deficit hawks--to vote no.
But even if he attempted something so daring, the writing's on the wall. Democrats have plenty left on their agenda, climate change and jobs chief among them. We can now add entitlement reform to the list.
Late update: To underscore just how serious these Democrats are about reducing the debt, 12 of them (and Independent Joe Lieberman) have signed a letter insisting the issue be addressed in short order.
Additional reporting by Christina Bellantoni

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tiowally
November 30, 2009 1:14 PM
Hmmm. I wonder what kind of spending reforms the Department of War, er, Defense will experience? Ah, doesn't matter. As long as innocent people die it's all good. Right?
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EH
November 30, 2009 1:30 PM in reply to tiowally
I wouldn't go that far, but it's certainly an ambitious distraction in favor of the things that aren't getting reformed.
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jeffgee
November 30, 2009 1:40 PM in reply to tiowally
Isn't it interesting that in WW2, the last war that actually threatened our nation, it was called the Department of War, but afterward it was called the Defense Department, after which every war was not about defending the nation but defending the right of a president to wage any war he wanted, with false-flag attacks and sheer fantasy as justification?
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tiowally
November 30, 2009 1:53 PM in reply to jeffgee
Not to nitpick, but it's the Department of Defense. And when it comes to defending (and expanding) its budget, DoD's second to none! Disregarding the fact that it has effectively lost every conflict it has entered — except Grenada — since WWII, one must ask: What would we do without them?
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realist
December 1, 2009 8:05 AM in reply to tiowally
How could you forget our glorious victory taking out Noriega in Panama with the help of blasting Guns 'N Roses at him inside the Vatican consulate?
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MyMy
November 30, 2009 2:07 PM in reply to tiowally
Did I see a headline, a small one to be sure, that Obama had actually succeeded in cutting the Defense budget for a 'first time' win? Did Congress reverse it? Did it actually happen? Anyone know?
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SqueakyRat
November 30, 2009 2:38 PM in reply to MyMy
No, it didn't happen. DoD got less than they asked for, but it was still a solid increase.
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Bushie
November 30, 2009 1:38 PM
Can we reduce entitlements to Boeing, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, GD, Raytheon, Halliburton, KBR. No? Didn't think so.
Aw, perpetual war, great for the economy, great for population control.
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Why oh why
November 30, 2009 1:39 PM
I wouldn't get any heartburn over this, it is just some pointless political theater from the Nelsons and Bayhs of the Senate to "sound" like fiscal hawks, while they fund ever more wars and tax cuts for the rich.
It would be political suicide to gut Medicare and Social Security, and even "moderate" (corporate whores) Democrats can't be that stupid. It is just interesting to see them fight this fight now and suggest a "vote on, up or down--no filibusters" to kill FDR and LBJ legacy, but not for health care reform.
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Ethan
November 30, 2009 1:43 PM in reply to Why oh why
I cosign this.
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Redshift
November 30, 2009 2:07 PM in reply to Why oh why
It would be political suicide to gut Medicare and Social Security, and even "moderate" (corporate whores) Democrats can't be that stupid.
I have no such confidence. I doubt they'll gut Medicare and Social Security, but I have little doubt they'll use it as a platform to team up with Republicans to block spending necessary to fix the economy, fix the health care system, deal with climate change -- in short to allow Democrats to have any clear accomplishments. We're already stuck with a jobless recovery because these bozos thought it was more important to care about the deficit in the short term than to have a stimulus as big as we needed (which would do more to improve the deficit in the medium to long term.) In doing so, they play into the endless Republican ploy of giving away free ponies when they're in power and making the Democrats take them away.
So while I agree they aren't idiotic enough to commit the obvious political suicide by gutting Social Security, they are definitely idiotic enough to produce a less direct political suicide for Democrats in general by clinging to the idiotic belief that ordinary Americans care more about the deficit than having jobs.
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lousgirl84
November 30, 2009 2:52 PM in reply to Why oh why
Cosign. Good post. I agree
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Bushie
November 30, 2009 2:53 PM in reply to Why oh why
I differ to beg with you. Obama is turning out to be a DLCer in drag (i.e. Clinton). He wants to balance the budget, but is to cowardly to reinstate tax rates cut under Bushco so he has cover with the DLC types in Conrad, DiFink and Repukes. Further, the Commission will be granted Congress's law making authority without the bother of, though not much, political repercussions.
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JadeZ
November 30, 2009 3:00 PM in reply to Why oh why
wrong.
they will pass this and it will gut Medicare and Social Security.
preventing increases in SS and cutting medicare is what obama campaigned on and giving this to an outside commission gives them some cover.
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Morbo
November 30, 2009 1:43 PM
To a certain subset of idiot politicians, also known as "moderate" Dems, it's always 1994, so right-wingers have to pandered to, no matter the disastrous results to the country.
It's really sick, this Stockholm Syndrome these morons suffer from.
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TheRealFish
November 30, 2009 1:44 PM
Yeah. They want to return us to the Glory Days of Hoover.
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tiowally
November 30, 2009 2:04 PM in reply to TheRealFish
Are you suggesting taffeta ball gowns, silk slips and custom high-heels (size: pudgy) are about to make a comeback? Will we all get knee-pads this time?
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tiowally
November 30, 2009 2:08 PM in reply to tiowally
Oops. Wrong Hoover.
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MJAN
November 30, 2009 1:45 PM
This commission might not turn into anything, but from what I've read, the President plans to make the deficit a big priority in 2010. See relevant article here, also linked by Andrew Sullivan, under his post "Obama, Deficit Hawk."
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29471.html
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/11/obama-deficit-hawk.html
"President Barack Obama plans to announce in next year's State of the Union address that he wants to focus extensively on cutting the federal deficit in 2010 – and will downplay other new domestic spending beyond jobs programs, according to top aides involved in the planning."
I think it's smart politics, taking off the table the big whine from republicans/conservatives and calling their bluff. Just think if Obama spends as much legislative effort on deficit reduction as he did on Health Care. It would help him win over the center, big time.
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MJAN
November 30, 2009 1:50 PM in reply to MJAN
And I'm assuming Josh M's title post "The Pivot" is taken from Sully's post, which starts with "For much of this year, I've been arguing that the Obama administration needs to pivot swiftly from health insurance reform to fiscal responsibility in the coming months."
I love the blogosphere!
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sanssouci0
November 30, 2009 2:05 PM in reply to MJAN
What a bloody joke! Did you not see the latest Research2000 poll results that confirm the absolutely obvious. Democrats will be routed in 2010 because half of their base will be sitting on their hands, not because of a loss of independents. With SOX amendment, entitlement reform, and Stupak garbage, Democrats are enabling reform that they would never adhere to if they were in the opposition. In my opinion, this justifies putting them back where they belong.
Democrats are running to the center because 1/3 of their representives are corporate whores who have no interest in the base. The democratic party is better off small and united, than an amorphous majority that facilitates the right wing agenda.
Since Obama has been in power, there is absolutely no doubt that the political center has shifted to the right. Obama and the democrats' pandering to an illusional right of center independent is a self-fulfilling prophecy. (see latest NJ poll on gay marriage) Obama's inaction on DADT and other gay issues, has marginalized these issues entirely. By pandering to the right, Obama is making moderate, mainstream liberal ideas appear to be radical leftist notions. This is incremental regression we can do without.
Indeed, there may even be a compelling argument to be made, (AND NOT OUT IDEALOGICAL PURITY MOTIVES), that democrats with a 'centrist' running for office, should vote for the republican. A democrat supporting substantial portions of the republican party is much more destructive to the democratic party than an outright republican candidate. The supposed centrists are like worms eating out the heart the party.
Ideological differences, and big tent politics, do not entail hijacking, terrorizing the vast majority of the party you represent.
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AJM
November 30, 2009 2:56 PM in reply to MJAN
Sucker. You think that the Republicans care about issues? All they care about is defeating the Democrats. There is no cut sufficiently big to please them without gutting the Federal government. Won't stop them from spending big on war though.
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DonDavis
November 30, 2009 1:52 PM
Obama’s Radical Proposal to Solve ALL Issues
http://satiricalpolitical.com/2009/11/30/obama-address-afghanistan-health-care-unemployment/
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Lalo35adm
November 30, 2009 1:53 PM
Obama the Biggest Spending Deficit Reducer of all. Let the triangulation begin!
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delmoi
November 30, 2009 1:55 PM
Of course once we know who they put on the commission, we'll know exactly what will come out. Imagine what Paul Krugman, Robert Reich and Matt Yglesias would come up with compared to -- I don't know -- Greg Mankiw, Douglas Holtz-Eakin plus some other right-wing hacks.
These people are suicidally idiotic. Of course what they really want is to keep *total spending* low regardless of revenue so they can keep taxes low for all their rich friends and to hell with the poor and middle class.
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JohnW1141
November 30, 2009 3:38 PM in reply to delmoi
delmpoi,
I know one guy who will be appointed to the commission, the useless as tits on a bull, Lee Hamilton
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jeffgee
November 30, 2009 1:55 PM
I hope the Dems aren't channeling Dick Cheney/Karl Rove's 2003 growl, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter. This is our due" because that only works with the media when Republicans say it. The Dems will be clubbed like baby seals if they try this.
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delmoi
November 30, 2009 1:59 PM
I think it's smart politics, taking off the table the big whine from republicans/conservatives and calling their bluff. Just think if Obama spends as much legislative effort on deficit reduction as he did on Health Care. It would help him win over the center, big time.
The republicans will just start whining about something else. In particular, they'll criticize Obama for cutting Medicare/social security which is the only thing he can do to cut the deficit (other then raising taxes). Anything he can do cut the deficit is going to have real consequences, and no doubt the republicans will hammer on that.
They don't have any principles, they're hammering Obama on the deficit because if he actually tries to do anything about it, it's going to damage a bunch of other stuff that will be even easier to politically demagogue
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MJAN
November 30, 2009 2:09 PM in reply to delmoi
Fair enough. Let them whine about it, but in the meantime, moderate/ind voters will like that he's addressing it in a big way, and after he's re-elected he can water down the proposed cuts so that the consequences to the programs aren't so severe.
I also think it affords an opportunity to talk more honestly about the size of our defense budget. But that's probably wishful thinking...
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slb
November 30, 2009 2:03 PM
Isn't this the mistake that Roosevelt made in 1937? Letting the deficit hawks persuade him to balance the budget before economic recovery was assured, and sending the economy back into the tank?
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mophan
November 30, 2009 2:18 PM in reply to slb
The tree branch will continue to swipe us on the head until we learn to duck.
"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." - George Santaya
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slb
November 30, 2009 2:22 PM in reply to slb
And wait a minute -- aren't these the same guys who only a few months ago voted to give Social Security recipients a $250 "stimulus check" in 2010 to compensate for the fact that there would be no COLA increase in the benefit payments because the CPI indicated negative inflation? (Obama included -- he asked for the increase.)
Don't they ever get worn out hopping back and forth across the fence?
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obamaman
November 30, 2009 2:03 PM
IOW--"We aren't able to do the job that we were elected to do, and we're also too cowardly to do what we really want(destroy a popular and effective government program), so let's pawn it off to a special commission so we can pretend we did our job."
It's so pathetic that they can't make the relatively simple changes required. No, we need a "special commission" so we have an excuse to funnel more taxpayer dollars to Wall Street. They did such a bang up job last year, why not turn over our retirement to them? Besides, Wall Street firms contribute more to campaigns.
I have no doubt that's the reason congress wants to do this.
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Joe Bob
November 30, 2009 2:20 PM in reply to obamaman
My sentiments exactly. If they want to muck around with Medicare and Social Security, Congress can write a bill and pass it.
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slb
November 30, 2009 3:08 PM in reply to obamaman
In short: "Stop me before I spend again."
Pathetic.
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fsudirectory
November 30, 2009 2:08 PM
So what happens if (when) the committee becomes politically charged.
It will end up stacked with political ideologues of the same mindsent or their do-boys which are, if nothing else, worse (since they have more to prove as they were considered a do-boy their whole career) and the Senate ends up with a majority in which their friends are on the committee (or their do-boys) and the programs are gutted one lonely Christmas in the dark of night, only to find out all of the money I paid for SS and Medicare is now run by GS and I end up having lost 10-20% of my lifetime earnings.
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sanssouci0
November 30, 2009 2:10 PM
Why are democrats fighting perceptional battles they cannot win by assimilating the Republican notions of success. They are again, and again letting the republicans define the terms of the debate. Democrats WILL BE perceived as big spenders regardless of what they do. A much more compelling argument would be to show that they are responsible, effective users of govn resources.
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tosh
November 30, 2009 2:20 PM
This is so fucking sick it's depressing. And before we put the blame on the ConservaDems, we need to understand that they have a pair of willing ears in the White House: Summers and Rahm.
This is Screw Up By Numbers, predicted by people like Krugman back in January:
* watered down Stimulous that doesn't create enough jobs
* not chance of getting another one out of congress
* eatting the blame on that
* Budget Hawks trying to replay 1937
If we looked at the Bush Admin of doing everything possibly wrong in the War On Terror, it's time for us to start copping to Summers & Co. doing just about everything wrong on the Economy, and now playing willing partners in rolling back SS, Medicare and Medicade.
Every freaking day there's another thing that drives me insane about my own Party.
John
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A Missouri voter
November 30, 2009 2:22 PM
Well, if I had to find a silver lining in this disastrously bad idea, I guess it bids fair to put the final nail in coffin of the Keynesian-economics-has-been-thoroughly-discredited meme. A Keynesian model would predict that cutting entitlements in the middle of an economic slump will push the recession into a depression. When that occurs, it will be very hard for Heritage and Cato and all that lot to explain their way out of that mess, no matter how many Laffer curves they print in their white-papers.
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Why oh why
November 30, 2009 3:33 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
Oh yeah, I'm sure they wouldn't blame it on Big Government and tax-and-spend Democrats. Intellectual honesty is a characteristic of corporate-funded institutes like Cato and Heritage.
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gs62
November 30, 2009 2:26 PM
Let's not reflexively assume that deficit reduction won't help the economy. Granted, it is not Keynesian orthodoxy and Krugman does not believe it will help, but I think it is quite possible that it will be beneficial.
Economic conditions today are very different from either 1932 or 1980. We need to get away from the policies of "permanent stimulus" through deficit spending, tax cuts and cheap money; we need to see real savings fuel real productive investment that drives real growth. Intergenerational wealth transfers, military-industrial complex pork and assorted consumer spending accelerators are not the long-term fix that the US economy badly needs.
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tosh
November 30, 2009 2:46 PM in reply to gs62
Deficit reduction would be valid if we raised taxes.
Chances of that happening?
None.
Chances of defense spending getting drastically cut?
None.
So let's be honest about what *will* happen in deficit reduction rather than what we would like to see happen.
The reality is that deficit reduction on a Federal Level will look exactly like it does out here in California.
How well is that going?
The White House shouldn't even be humors these fucks. They've now given them credibility and a White House position of weakness to negotiate against.
Of course Larry and Rahn are perfectly happy with this, and the President continues to listen to the wrong people.
John
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gs62
November 30, 2009 5:26 PM in reply to tosh
I don't think deficit reduction is possible without a trifecta of entitlement reforms, defense spending reductions and tax increases. In my view a serious push for deficit reduction is good politics (seizes the high ground on an issue) as well as (hopefully) good economics. We have exhausted, I think, the use of monetary stimulus and I am skeptical of more federal borrowing and spending as the cure-all. A drop in federal borrowing, as long as it doesn't spur deflation, could actually help direct some sidelined cash into productive investment. At least that's what I'd hope to see.
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Rich in NJ
November 30, 2009 2:33 PM
Will this move get more votes for a money saving public option in HCR legislation?
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Joe Bob
November 30, 2009 2:44 PM
There are a couple of Medicare and Social Security reforms I could get behind.
1. Squelch the outlandish Medicare payments going to states like Texas and Florida: places with high volumes of procedures and reimbursements and average or below patient outcomes.
2. Raise the income cap on Social Security withholding.
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roxanne
November 30, 2009 2:50 PM
This is a disgrace! I read about this on the dailykos over the weekend and there take is worth noting. Basically, these conservadems and blue dogs are trying to remove their own responsibility. They were elected to make the decisions they'e trying to pass off on an outside agency. When this outside agency cuts Medicare and Medicaid the Dems will be thrown out of office. I say, let those bastards default on the debt.
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Odel Roo
November 30, 2009 2:50 PM
LOL... "This is our moment." and if you don't like it fuck you and the unicorn you rode in on... gotta love Chicago politicking!
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roxanne
November 30, 2009 2:54 PM in reply to Odel Roo
It's kicking the GOP's sorry asses! 20% of the voting population? Maybe the GOP needs their own Chicago politicking!
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Odel Roo
November 30, 2009 3:01 PM in reply to roxanne
Lol... maybe but can't even figure out their own litmus test.
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roxanne
November 30, 2009 3:00 PM in reply to Odel Roo
Actually, it's the politics of what I like to call the hayseed states. Conservadems and Blue Dog Dems who favor the GOP style of governing but, don't want to be with the party of loosers. These clowns will have to choose. Now, personally, I'd call their bluff. Go ahead. Don't raise the debt ceiling. Then, China can turn the US into it's annex. If the people in those hayseed states keep voting for these idiots, they get what they deserve. Have you noticed that their states have the highest amounts of uninsured? Do you know why? It's because they don't raise enough money from their hayseed constitutents so, they're forced to whore themselves to insurance companies in their states who have a virtual monopoly.
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JohnW1141
November 30, 2009 3:41 PM
When the deficit hawks start talking about reducing defense spending then I'll take them seriously.
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thepeoplechoose
November 30, 2009 4:04 PM
This is the part where we see congress throw those persons who are least reponsible for the mess we have under the bus.
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LFC
November 30, 2009 5:17 PM
I am firmly against entitlement control until they figure out how to keep the annual Social Security surplus from being "borrowed" to hide the size of the actual annual deficit in the general fund. Reagan jacked up Soc Sec taxes, and he and Bush spent every dime. Clinton got it under control, and Bush II went right back to spending it.
Take Social Security out of the general fund NOW!
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henk
November 30, 2009 7:52 PM
Yup, this is the Dems plan to energize voters in 2010. Cut Social Security and Medicare. I don't think its going to work out the way they'd like though.
At 53 years old and a lifetime Democrat for the first time in my life I am really questioning my commitment to the party. Assholes like Evan Byah and Ben Nelson aren't what I would call Democrats, but I don't know whose definition party leadership agrees with. Is the party leaving me? Or am I leaving the party?
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dougom
November 30, 2009 8:38 PM
Well, as a general rule, if Dianne Feinstein thinks it's time to do something, it's best to cast a jaundiced eye on whatever that "something" is. If DiFi thinks that now is the time for Entitlement Reform (tm), it's probably a terrible time for it.
Fortunately, an "outside commission" is the usual Congressional tool for kicking the can down the road, so if we see one of those created, we can safely assume it's been pushed out a few years. It's like "blue-ribbon panel," or "trigger;" it's a way to make nothing happen while seeming to do something.
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artgurrl
November 30, 2009 10:07 PM
Funny, Dianne Feinstein would never order a special commission to audit the Pentagon for their bloated budget. Yet, she'd rather cut benefits for the poor and elderly in this country. I wonder why that is??? Hmmmmm. Could it be because she and her husband benefit financially in the millions a year from that bloated Pentagon budget?
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the true enduring majority
December 1, 2009 2:24 AM
You guys do realize that both wars were added into the regular defense budget for 2010 right? No more "supplementals".
While the defense budget did go up 4%, thats reflective of the spending for Afganistan and Iraq. The major victories for Gates and Obama was killing the F-22, Future Combat Systems, which was $350 billion dollars and rising, and other of the worst offenders in terms of militarized Keynesianism.
2010 is just the start of defense drawdowns. You can take that for the bank. With the exception of war spending, the days of gold plated, "exquisite" weapons systems are done. With the passage of the McCain-Levin defense aquisitions reform bill, auditing and project management is going back in house. No more "lead system integrator" nonsense. It's already having a positive effect.
There will be savings once Iraq draws down over the next year and half, and eventually Afganistan will stabilize in terms of spending as it will be part of the actual budget. So in terms of percentage of the GDP, defense spending will shortly be on the way down.
I think what this article is talking about is dealing with the long term deficit, which is all entitlement spending and debt servicing. In terms of Medicare/medicade the HCR bill will help and with Social Security they'll probably just raise the withholding cap. Those need to be taken care of like it or not.
FYI, the Bush tax cuts end in 2011. I have a feeling revenue will rather unsurprisingly improve after those die. And no, Obama is not going to ask for them to be continued.
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