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Gillibrand Faces Trouble From Giuliani In New Poll

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 24, 2009, 4:33PM

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Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

George Pataki, Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani

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Rudy Giuliani hasn't made up his mind about running for Senate for a second time, but a new poll out today from Zogby suggests he's in a good position to take a shot at winning the seat he ran for in 2000.

The poll shows Giuliani in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who took over the seat earlier this year after Hillary Clinton left it to become Secretary of State. Giuliani leads a hypothetical matchup with Gillibrand 45-43, which is within the 3.2% margin of error. Former Gov. George Pataki (R), another potential candidate for the seat, trails Gillibrand 43-38.

The poll suggests voters seem ready to give someone else a try in the Senate seat. Just 32% of respondents said she deserved another term, while 43% say they want to see someone new in the seat (26% were unsure).

Recent media reports have said that Giuliani is planning to run for the Senate seat in advance of a second run for president in 2012, a claim Giuliani's team has denied. But Giuliani has already said he won't run for Governor of New York, leading most to say a the announcement of a Senate bid is just around the corner.

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Ann Arbor

November 24, 2009 4:44 PM

How'd Giuliani's early lead in the presidential nominating polls work out for him?

Early polls reflect name recognition. Giuliani is still much better known around the state than Gillibrand. Which makes him more like the incumbent in terms of how to view early polling, so a 45-43 lead over Gillibrand at this point is actually a pretty weak showing.

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kaylaspop

November 24, 2009 4:45 PM

Rudy's an empty suit - noun, verb, 9/11.

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ogliberal

November 24, 2009 4:52 PM

Another thing. Without even announcing that he's running, his folks are already saying that if he does it would be in preparation for a 2012 presidential run. I don't think NYers want Rudy to be president (nor do most Americans, for that matter) but are they really going to vote for a guy whose clear goal is simply to use the seat (or the race itself) as a jumping off point for another presidential run. I don't think NYers would have to worry about Rudy winning and leaving a vacant seat for the second time in four years - Rudy will NOT win, no matter how bad things are for Obama. But NYers know Rudy. If he fails, as is likely, in a presidential bid, is this guy really going to want to serve a full Senate term. Rudy has no real interest in being a legislator - he wants to be the big cheese. Why would NYers vote for a guy who they know doesn't really want the job and who will leave it before the term is finished? Heck, even Hillary - who clearly had presidential ambitions when she ran for Senate in 2000 - stayed in the seat for 8 years and would have stayed longer had Obama not tapped her to be SoS.

As Ann Arbor noted, this lead (and it's Zogby, for the love of pete - grain of salt, folks) is almost completely based on name recognition.

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Minne sconsin

November 24, 2009 5:47 PM in reply to ogliberal

and it's Zogby, for the love of pete - grain of salt, folks

That was my first thought...

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Walter Mitty

November 24, 2009 5:02 PM

Given that Guiliani probably have more name value that Sen. Gillibrand, I think this poll bodes will for her actually. furthermore Gillibrand is having some issues with the progressive wing of the party, Guiliani would instantly unite them behind Kirsten.

Rudy can't afford to lose if he wants to make another run at the Presidency. Therefore he won't run unless it's a slam dunk for him, and it isn't.

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joejustice

November 24, 2009 5:30 PM

But isn't Gillibrand "someone new" as well? Weird.

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Bleacher Creature

November 24, 2009 5:35 PM

Giuliani has nowhere to go but down. He is a TERRIBLE campaigner and hasn't the patience or personaility for it. Gillibrand, meanwhile, still has a very low name recognition.

If I'm Gillibrand, I'll take these numbers 11 months out.

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