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Obama's Approval Goes Below 50% In Gallup Poll

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President Obama's approval rating has fallen below 50% in the Gallup poll for the first time, the organization has announced.

The full number will be released at 1 p.m. ET. (Late Update: The number has been posted, with 49% approval to 44% disapproval.)

As Gallup has previously noted, every president since World War II, except for John F. Kennedy, eventually went below 50%. The shortest time for such a fall belongs to Gerald Ford at three months, while the longest (except for Kennedy, and his tragically shortened administration) was Dwight Eisenhower at 63 months, the only president to last through a full first term above 50%.

Falling below 50% doesn't necessarily spell defeat for re-election. Obama's ten months will match the ten months for Ronald Reagan, who was of course re-elected in a landslide, and Bill Clinton only stayed above 50% for four months.

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43 comments

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November 20, 2009 11:43 AM   

OH NOOOOOOOOOOOH!!!!!!!

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November 20, 2009 1:14 PM    in reply to brewmn61

Which Party do you blame for this economic recession?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=6515

.

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November 20, 2009 1:27 PM    in reply to JeffB

The question is, which party will they credit with the recovery? The Republicans are offering nothing but criticism and blame at this point, so they're forfeiting any claim to credit when the economy does recover.

I'd prefer our government worry more about doing the right thing than how popular they are in a given moment anyway.

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November 20, 2009 3:20 PM    in reply to brewmn61

Exactly. And Gethnier nailed the Republican Senator -- who asked that he resign -- on the issue.

And what was the Senator's "concern"? Jobs, of course -- like they gave a fuck from Reagan on.

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November 21, 2009 12:05 AM    in reply to JeffB

I'll see your link and raise you this one:

http://mediamatters.org/blog/200911200027

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niw

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November 22, 2009 11:48 PM    in reply to brewmn61

68% of people believe that polls are wrong and used to persuade public opinion. Says one poll survey.

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November 20, 2009 11:44 AM   

Economy.

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November 20, 2009 11:45 AM   

"It's the economy, stupid"!

It is time for the Democrats to focus on JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!

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November 20, 2009 11:46 AM   

10 percent unemployment. When it crossed that threshold, it was going to be bad news for the president.

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November 20, 2009 11:54 AM    in reply to felix

Very true. I am surprised that it held up this long actually with double digit unemployment. Reagan's approval rating was 37% with unemployment at 10.2%.

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November 20, 2009 11:54 AM    in reply to felix

Yep, but it's worth noting that Reagan (who is the standard point of comparison when GOPers talk about how "disastrous" Obama's presidency has been) had unemployment hovering over 10% well into his third year in office. Obama will almost certainly see things improve sooner than that, though I'm guessing the nadir will be early-mid 2010.

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November 20, 2009 3:22 PM    in reply to Stroszek

Vice-President Biden was honest on the point on Jon Stewart: that jobs lag recovery; and it'll take 16-18 months before jobs begin turning around.

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November 20, 2009 11:58 AM   

Anybody looking at the insane PPP '12 polls? Ron Paul running at 38%? Wow, there are more batshit crazy people in this country than I thought.

Anyway, I'm not worried about Obama's approval ratings at this point. Ask me in '12. And in any case, I want Obama to do what he feels he needs to do without regard for its effect on his electability. If more people got elected to govern instead of getting elected to get re-elected, this country would be a better place.

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November 20, 2009 12:06 PM    in reply to jenesq

2nd.

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November 20, 2009 3:24 PM    in reply to Cal Soldier

Ditto. And President Obama remains personally popular, which is expected as he is a personable, likeable person.

And the FOX poll on his bowing to the Japanese dude is a healthy sign.

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November 20, 2009 4:39 PM    in reply to JNagarya

3rd. Technically...4th. Or, double ditto.

You get it.

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November 20, 2009 12:51 PM    in reply to jenesq

If more people got elected to govern instead of getting elected to get re-elected, this country would be a better place.

How very very true.

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bdh

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November 20, 2009 2:54 PM    in reply to jenesq

The question asks respondents to choose between Obama, Paul, and undecided. Anti-Obama voters may be choosing Paul just to make a point. We'd probably see similar numbers if Mr. Potato Head was the alternative.

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November 20, 2009 11:59 AM   

Kind of miffed that this was spashed across the site as "Breaking News." I guess it was inevitable, and every outlet will feel compelled to cover it as newsworthy.

If you've been following the Gallup tracking on this site, you'll notice that the poll can fluctuate by up to three points from day to day, possibly reflecting statistical noise. So if Obama hovers at or near 50 and then shows a typical point fluctuation that takes him below an arbitrary line, it's suddenly a big story. Ho hum. But that's the media reality we live in.

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November 20, 2009 12:57 PM    in reply to fbacon2

I don't remember there being a big splash when W's approval rating dropped below 50 in Gallup. In fact, I'd bet that there is perpetually less discussion of Republican president approval ratings than Democratic president approval ratings.

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November 20, 2009 3:25 PM    in reply to CT Voter

That's becasue Bushit didn't govern by focus groups. Which is why he made a point of saying that: the truth was opposite.

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November 20, 2009 11:59 AM   

You know you want me back!! Heh, Heh!

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November 20, 2009 12:04 PM   

Eric almost beat Drudge for posting this!

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November 20, 2009 12:06 PM   

Take on vexed problems and this is what happens.

If Obama's approval ratings were still at stratospheric, inaugeration levels, it would surely be a sign that he wasn't serious about bringing about real change.

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November 20, 2009 3:27 PM    in reply to agio

Well said. His situation doesn't make for permanent popularity contest.

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November 20, 2009 12:16 PM   

Come on, he had no experience before he took this job.

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November 20, 2009 12:32 PM    in reply to Chip

What's your point (presuming you have one)?

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November 20, 2009 3:29 PM    in reply to Chip

The campaign "argument" that a person isn't qualified to be president becasue lacking the experience to be president is transparent nonsense: no one who hasn't been president has the experience of being president.

And the reality confronted once elected is always different that perceptions and presumptions.

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November 20, 2009 7:13 PM    in reply to Chip

Great. Matthew Weaver is back.

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November 20, 2009 4:25 PM   

At least Gallup changes now and then, Rassmussen was stuck at 49% for so long, I started wondering if they were polling the same 100 people every week...

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November 20, 2009 5:24 PM   

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!!!!!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!!!!!!

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November 20, 2009 5:52 PM    in reply to Brian M.

That ship has sailed.

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November 20, 2009 7:15 PM    in reply to Schmed- ley

Oh, come on, now, that one never gets old.

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November 20, 2009 7:18 PM   

You people sure are taking this calmly. No hysterics. No panic. toldjas or recrimination based on his failure to do exactly what you've been advadocating for months now. No urgent pleas for an immediate speech or some other magic trick.

Aren't any of you Democrats?

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November 22, 2009 2:18 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Got nothing better to do on a Friday night than troll for people to pathologize? Whatever gets you through the night (golf clap).

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November 20, 2009 9:21 PM   

if i could give you a little advice - you are a very likable person, however you were elected to lead. to much getting the world and america to like you and not enough getting behind a vision for america and communicating that vision and fighting for something, anything in the public arena and not behind closed doors. when you fight behind the scenes, it makes you seem like an old democrat or a senator - sneaky and flaky. being president, you are in a battle of ideas and you do not need to battle the naysayers head on but you do need to offer an alternative vision

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November 20, 2009 9:54 PM   

So. On the right we have a chunk of people who feel Obama is moving too fast and is a radical liberal. On the left we have a chunk of people who feel he is moving too slow and is a closet right winger. They're all babbling about how incompetent he is, each from their own perspective.

The middle has now shrunk to less than 50 per cent.

Considering what he inherited, and how much leverage he really has to make things happen, those look like pretty good numbers to me.

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November 20, 2009 10:00 PM   

Whatever.

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November 21, 2009 11:15 AM   

There seems to be a problem with this article. It says that "every president since World War II, except for John F. Kennedy, eventually went below 50%." Fine. But then it attempts to describe which Presidents went below 50% for the shortest period and which for the longest. It says the longest was Eisenhower "(except for Kennedy, and his tragically shortened administration)". How can Eisenhower be the longest (except for Kennedy) if Kennedy NEVER went below 50%? Secondly, it says that Eisenhower was below 50% for "63 months, the only president to last through a full first term above 50%." Well, if he was above 50 for his "full first term", that only leaves his second full term to be below 50. That term was 48 months. So how, exactly, did he achieve 63 months below 50? It makes no sense at all. Editor, please.

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November 21, 2009 2:48 PM    in reply to PRKL8R

Secondly, it says that Eisenhower was below 50% for "63 months, the only president to last through a full first term above 50%." Well, if he was above 50 for his "full first term", that only leaves his second full term to be below 50. That term was 48 months. So how, exactly, did he achieve 63 months below 50? It makes no sense at all. Editor, please.

I think they're trying to say that it took Eisenhower the longest, 63 months, to drop below 50 percent (and Gerald Ford the shortest).

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November 21, 2009 6:10 PM   

As much as I despise the dishonest obstructionist deeply out of touch Republican party, if I were to be polled as to whether I approve of the job Obama is doing, I'd have to take a moment. On many things good, but some of the larger progressive issues, not so much. Still allowing legal discrimination against gay sexual orientation. Still got Gitmo. Still in Iraq. Not tough enough with Israel. Not leading the discussion on HC persistently. Allowing Pakistan to squander billion of US $, while protecting Taliban in it's own territory. Lot on the plate I know, but he does seem to be trying t be as safe as possible on some issues.

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niw

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November 22, 2009 11:49 PM   

68% of people believe that polls are wrong and used to persuade public opinion. Says one poll survey.

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