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Poll: Blanche Lincoln Could Lose In 2010 If She Supports Health Care Bill

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A new Zogby poll suggests that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) could seriously endanger her 2010 re-election by supporting the health care bill.

In initial match-ups, Lincoln leads state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 41%-39%, within the ±4.5% margin of error, and has a healthier lead of 45%-29% over state Sen. Kim Hendren.

In a series of follow-up questions, respondents were then asked how they would feel if Lincoln supported the bill. In a new match-up with Baker, Lincoln's previous edge of 41%-39% turns into a Baker lead of 49%-37%.

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26 comments

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November 19, 2009 5:32 PM   

Yeah! Eric in full 2008 General Election Mode~!

*looks at pool*

You know there happen to be no internals attached on how well Blanche would do in a Democratic Primary if she votes against cloture, right?

We all know what Blanche is going to do: Vote For Cloture on the Final Bill and Vote Against the Final Bill in the last Roll Call on it. She's going to try to split the baby and hope it works.

John

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November 20, 2009 12:11 AM    in reply to tosh

She should not only do that, she should blame every Republican who votes against cloture of usurping our democracy. Senate rules call for 51 votes to pass legislation, not 60. Lincoln and every other Democratic Senator should begin championing a rules change to require only 51 votes for cloture. Senate Republicans have been shattering filibuster records during the last several Democratic-led Congresses, and it's time they paid the price.

We don't have to worry about Republicans controlling that Chamber ever again. Anyone who's read Judis and Teixiera's The Emerging Democratic Majority, and factors in the amplifying effects of last September's Republican-caused global economic collapse and the decades-long demands that loom from climate change knows fully well that the Republican Party is on its last legs and will never rule Congress again.

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November 19, 2009 5:33 PM   

i think lincoln's gonna lose in 2010 no matter what she does. she's a bad senator, and an even worse politician.

so why not go down voting for the most important piece of legislation since medicare?

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November 19, 2009 5:39 PM    in reply to freaktown

Lincoln may loose if she votes, but will loose if she doesn't. Don't go by TPM report or Zogby. Former is lame reporting and the later is a fraud.

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November 19, 2009 8:19 PM    in reply to kash79

I thought there was a time when Zogby was actually credible! Wasn't there? Am I dreaming?

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November 19, 2009 8:54 PM    in reply to lousgirl84

Not since 2004. Remember, he "staked his reputation" on Kerry winning and so, Kerry and Zogby's reputation was lost.

He's a hack.

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November 19, 2009 5:33 PM   

Zogby ....
This says it all about the agenda here.

Voters currently indicated that they do not know how either Lincoln or Arkansas' other Senator Mark Pryor stand on the bill. Asked if Lincoln supported the bill, 42% said she did, 24% said she did not and 34% were not sure. As for Pryor, there was even less clarity with 35% reporting that he supported the legislation and 18% saying he opposed it. Forty-seven percent said they were not sure of his position.
Opposition to the healthcare bill was significant - as noted, 64% of voters opposed the bill and 29% supported it - before voters heard anything about it in the survey. After a brief outline of the pros and cons of the legislation, support for the bill moved to 26% and opposition moved to 68%.
The survey was administered by Zogby International which is solely responsible for its content. It was paid for by the League of American Voters, a group which opposes the health care legislation.

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November 19, 2009 5:38 PM   

What about the poll if she doesnt support the healthcare bill? I can guess they did not poll that

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November 19, 2009 5:42 PM   

Why would anything put out by the Zogby organization even be worth a bucket of spit?

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November 19, 2009 5:45 PM   

That line about the anti-health care legislation group paying for it, and the questions not being posted, make me smell a rat. This poll also contradicts other polls I've heard of about Arkansas, which is what made me go to the Zogby site.

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November 19, 2009 5:46 PM   

Zogby? Really?

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November 19, 2009 8:45 PM    in reply to marklouis

Not just Zogby, either. Zogby doing a poll commissioned by people whose agenda coincides with the results of a Zogby poll.

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November 19, 2009 5:53 PM   

Why are we quoting Zogby EVER?

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November 19, 2009 6:30 PM    in reply to Maritza

Same thing I was wondering.

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November 19, 2009 8:02 PM    in reply to Maritza

Thirded. "EVER" is very, very right. And I can't believe you "STILL" quote it, Eric. And that, uncritically.

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November 19, 2009 6:02 PM   

I think when its a Zogby poll, it almost becomes a journalistic responsibility to triangulate with a second poll or soften the tone of the story or at least you can start with minimizing the fontsize of the headline.

Zogby is notorious both for its methodology and ideology. Five thirty eight calls Zogby: Worst Pollster in the World


More reliable polls say otherwise.

Public Option Popular, Lincoln Not
http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/1009/Ark_poll_Public_option_popular_Lincoln_not.html

Not voting for healthcare, career suicide
http://boldprogressives.org/lincolnpoll


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AJM

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November 19, 2009 8:34 PM    in reply to kash79

The timing of the two polls is different. The Zogby is later. It also occurred after the addition of the Stupak Amendment to the House bill. Blanche Lincoln is pro-choice -- if she votes for a bill containing the Stupak Amendment a significant section of her voters might very well feel betrayed.

There are a lot of issues that need to be disentangled -- such as why people say they oppose the HCR. In a recent CNN poll I heard discussed, only 49 % approved the plan but when the respondents who disapproved were asked why, 10% stated they wanted something stronger. So 59% wanted reform or something stronger.

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November 19, 2009 6:09 PM   

Ah, Kleefeld hyping a junk Zogby poll. Reminds me of the good ole' days.

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EdA

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November 19, 2009 8:09 PM   

There must be SOME Democrat in Arkansas who doesn't represent Walmart to run against her. Maybe???

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November 19, 2009 8:14 PM   

Zogby and Rasmussen are both junk. And when it comes to Rasmussen, it's not that they don't know how to conduct a poll. It that they choose to push skewed polls except when it comes to elections where the real poll (election results) acts as a check against their nonsense.

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November 19, 2009 8:26 PM   

Presuming this is true, so what? Is Blanche in the senate for the good of the country or for the good of Blanche? Sadly, her behavior of late suggests she is there for her benefit and not for the country's.

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November 19, 2009 8:40 PM   

"A new Zogby poll suggests..."

(scroll)

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November 20, 2009 1:41 AM   

i'm the first to come to tpm's defense when they relay/report rasmussen polls. but ain't no way i break up a zogby jam pile. wtf kleefeld??

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November 20, 2009 8:12 AM   

So where are the polls that ask people if they're happy with the increases to their private HI costs? If they're happy with the amount of out of pocket costs, when they're already paying $1000/mo. to the IC's Where's the polls that say people would prefer to stay with a carrier that won't treat their cancer because they had a cold two years ago?

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November 20, 2009 8:15 AM   

I'd like to see polls broken down by state as to the status of the PO. If Blanches state is reflective of the nation as a whole. I do mean an honest clear spoken, non push poll.

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November 20, 2009 9:05 AM   

The poll sample seems skewed to the GOP. If you look at the 2008 Presidential vote the poll says the sample was
32.1% for Obama
51.3% for McCain
16.6% for "Other"
The actual result was 38.9% Obama, 58.7% McCain, and 2.4% Other

With a margin of error of +/- 4.5%, there is no way this is an accurate sample, or at least 10% of respondents are being dishonest in their response. Zogby should not have published a poll with such unreliable data.

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