The new survey of the New Jersey gubernatorial race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a six-point leader over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.
The numbers: Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. The previous poll from last week gave Christie a narrower lead of 42%-38%-13%.
From the pollster's analysis: "If Christie does indeed end up as the winner it will be an indication that you can only be so unpopular as an elected official and still hope to get reelected. 57% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine while only 34% view him positively. Christie isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, as only 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 42% negative, but compared to Corzine those numbers look pretty good."
Late Update: Another poll from today, Monmouth poll, gives Christie an edge of 43%-42%, plus Daggett with 8%, with a ±3% margin of error. The previous poll from two weeks ago had the race tied at 39%-39%-14%.

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Ethan
November 2, 2009 12:26 AM
PPP is getting crazy.
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mcc
November 2, 2009 4:13 AM in reply to Ethan
Polling is basically useless nationwide this cycle because just basically nobody knows what partisan weightings will actually reflect who votes on election day.
But you can probably still say something like "in order for Corzine to win, more democrats have to turn out to vote than many pollsters expect"?
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Overreach THIS!
November 2, 2009 3:21 AM
Republicans could run the board Tuesday. Hoffman may win in his red district of NY, the Virginia picture isn't promising, and this one I thought we at least had in the bag.
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Ethan
November 2, 2009 6:36 AM in reply to Overreach THIS!
If you look at the internals for this poll, their sample has an approval/disapproval of Obama of 45/45. They're oversampling Republicans in a blue state.
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shooter242
November 2, 2009 8:18 AM
This is another example of politicians winning as a reflex to incompetence exhibited by the incumbents. It's true for both parties. Let me recommend Peggy Noonan's column in the WSJ decrying the state of leadership.
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Walter Mitty
November 2, 2009 9:36 AM
McDonnell, Christie and Hoffman are horrid candidates. Dems better be worried in 2010 and 2012 - there is a HUGE energy gap.
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