Poll: Christie Up Over Corzine 45%-42%

The new SurveyUSA poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in the home stretch.

The numbers: Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 10%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. Late last week, Corzine and Christie were tied at 43%-43%-11%.

The pollster's analysis supplies its own caveats for the poll data: "On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data."

The final polls have been showing some momentum for Christie in the home stretch. Let's see whether it holds true tomorrow night, or whether the New Jersey Dems' ground game puts Corzine over the top.