The new Monmouth poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a narrow lead over Republican Chris Christie, in an election that is really anyone's guess going into Election Day tomorrow.
The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. This poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday. In the previous poll released yesterday, which was conducted Wednesday through Friday, Christie had a lead of 43%-42%-8%, not a statistically significant change.
From the pollster's analysis: "This race is still as close as it can be. It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker."

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_jonny_5_
November 2, 2009 2:08 PM
I think that NJ will be too close to call Tomorrow night. (Corzine will squeek it out)
with VA going to McDonnell and Hoffman taking the NY-23.
This leaves the "liberal Media" to talk about how much this reflects on Obama. Which, regardless of outcomes, was to be their story anyway. This is the BS that we are going to have to put up with for the next week or so, I hope we are all prepared.
Just rest assured that.
1. NY-23 was a strongly held repub seat since Bush I days, there is no net gain for repubs.
2. This encourages the Repub Purity Police, ensureing right-wing extremists coming out of the woodwork. (bad for the party nationally)
3. VA GOV. never goes to the new presidents party (36 years running)
4. NJ GOV. rarely goes to the new presidents party (20 years running)
5. Gingrich & Romney(too cowardly to take sides in NY23, BTW) may have been to only electable repubs in 2012, now(post NY-23) we are likely to get Huckabee/Palin types that don't pass the laugh test for viability.
Remember, no matter how insane the news coverage will make you feel... these same folks thought that Palin would help win McCain the election in '08.
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Ann Arbor
November 2, 2009 2:34 PM in reply to _jonny_5_
Speaking of coverage that will make you insane: Mara Liason on NPR this morning said these races will be decided on local issues but will be interpreted as a referendum on President Obama. Gee, Mara, who will be doing that interpreting? You are just powerless not to join in, aren't you?
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oleeb
November 2, 2009 3:06 PM
This is a classic New Jersey race. It's a matter of how effective the two parties are in turning out their voters more than anything else. Unlike most states these days, both parties have formidable local ground operations in place in their strongholds independent of the campaign apparatus of their candidates. County organizations as well as city level organizations still exist in NJ. Combining their local apparatus with the campaigns always makes for a truly amazing election day effort. Minority turnout in places like Newark, Trenton, etc and other less affluent areas could be the key to who wins and who loses this race
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lifeofreilly
November 2, 2009 4:26 PM
Corzine ahead by 2 in an FDU poll, released today:
http://www.bluejersey.com/diary/13313/fdu-poll-shows-corzine-with-a-4341-lead
Looks like i's more of an extension of their previous poll, but Corzine still maintains the same lead.
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melissa511
November 2, 2009 4:45 PM
Now those of us in New Jersey finally know what it's like to be in a swing state during a presidential election: Since last weekend, I've received robocalls from Sarah Palin, Bill Clinton and Steve Forbes, and I've been surveyed twice. (I live in Bergen County.)
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melissa511
November 2, 2009 5:04 PM
And, oh yeah -- Obama campaigned at my workplace (Fairleigh Dickinson University) for Corzine, and just robocalled my house.
We'll go back to being ignored after Tuesday ...
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