Another poll suggests that Rudy Giuliani could potentially beat appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), if he enters the 2010 Senate race as he's reportedly been considering.
The new numbers from Rasmussen: Giuliani 53%, Gillibrand 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. A Zogby poll yesterday gave Rudy a narrower lead of 45%-43%, within that poll's ±3.2% margin of error.
The pollster's analysis speculates that Giuliani could be getting a short-term boost in this Democratic state, due to the Obama administration's decision on terrorism trials: "Fifty-five percent (55%) of New York State voters oppose U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder's decision to try the confessed mastermind of the 9/11 attacks and five other suspected terrorists in a civilian court in New York City rather than before a military tribunal."

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Walter Mitty
November 25, 2009 10:22 AM
Rasmussen.
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Overreach THIS!
November 25, 2009 10:46 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
I'd like to kindly take a short moment to react to WM's comment, and I wish to say,
Rasmussen.
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dswx
November 25, 2009 10:53 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
And once again, *nothing* from TPM to indicate that it is "Rasmussen (R)"! This constant "we know better than our readers" crap has got to end, TPM. Your failure to read the facts about Rasmussen's bias amounts to tacit approval rather than simply reporting. You are buying right into what the Repubs are selling and you fail to admit it every single time. Pretty "Fox News" of you.
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lousgirl84
November 25, 2009 10:37 AM
I am not buying any of this. I do not believe 55% of New Yorkers are against the trial of KSM in New York. Zacharias Mousawi was tried and convicted in NY, I don't remember anyone screaming about him.
More f'n bullshit.
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ogliberal
November 25, 2009 11:06 AM in reply to lousgirl84
"I do not believe 55% of New Yorkers are against the trial of KSM in New York."
They aren't. Rasmussen knew they wouldn't be so he actually asked a different question:
"Terrorist suspects linked to the 9/11 attacks will now be tried in a New York City civilian court rather than in a military tribunal. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to try these terrorist suspects in a New York City civilian court?"
The question was about military tribunal v. civilian court, not the location itself. NYers don't give a rat's arse that these losers are coming to NYC for trial. They're not afraid and they don't think it's going to open wounds. NYers will laugh at KSM if he tries to get on a soapbox (something very difficult to do in a federal trial, as Josh has noted) and make a case for himself. Wingnuts, of course, won't see the brave and tough NYCers laughing because they will be curled up under the beds urinating on themselves, hoping that brave Mr. 9/11 will come in and save the day.
The problem with the question is that people have trouble putting "civilian" above "military". Military invokes visions of Tom Cruise going after Jack Nicholson and brave men and women in uniform. "Civilian" invokes images of sleazy defense lawyers. Of course, the phrase "NY civilian court" might make somebody think of an NYC traffic court or something like that. A better description would have been "federal court located in NYC".
Also notice how the question implies that trying terror suspects in federal court v. military tribunal is somehow not the norm. In fact, it is the norm. I believe just about every terror conviction - maybe all of them - won by the Bush admin happened in "civilian" courts. The first WTC bombing perps were tried and convicted in fed court in NYC. (and are spending the rest of their lives in the Colorado Supermax - which, to the best of my knowledge, has not been targeted for attack by Al Qaeda) Trying these folks in a military tribunal is the EXCEPTION, but Rasmussen words his question to make the folks being polled (ie - the typical Rasmussen polling sample - white, old, and right-leaning) potentially believe otherwise.
Typical BS Rasmussen issues question.
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ilovebacon
November 25, 2009 10:46 AM
Rasmussen = Republican poll manufacturing co.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 25, 2009 11:02 AM
Rasmussen and Zogby. Rasmussen using a "likely voter" model more than a year before the election because likely voter models always skew Republican until the weeks before the election and Zogby staring into chicken guts for a fee.
Yeah, Rudy's a shoe-in fersher.
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Steaming Pile
November 25, 2009 11:02 AM
Why would New Yorkers, who are not known to be idiots, trade a Democrat who will only grow in seniority in the next Congress, perhaps even get to chair a committee, for a washed up Fox News Republican (which we need like a hole in the head) who will ride the back benches for years and diminish our state's clout for years to come?
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ogliberal
November 25, 2009 11:09 AM
"Why would New Yorkers, who are not known to be idiots, trade a Democrat who will only grow in seniority in the next Congress, perhaps even get to chair a committee, for a washed up Fox News Republican (which we need like a hole in the head) who will ride the back benches for years and diminish our state's clout for years to come?"
They won't.
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ogliberal
November 25, 2009 11:12 AM
"Rasmussen and Zogby. Rasmussen using a "likely voter" model more than a year before the election because likely voter models always skew Republican..."
This is also known as the "guaranteed to get you some airtime on FoxNews" polling strategy. I remember in the leadup to the election last year, the only pollsters Fox had on regularly were Scotty R. (who was a regular to begin with - evangelical, gay-hating wingnuts are always welcome in Foxland) and "Throwing a dart at a target would get your better results then my polls" Zogby.
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lousgirl84
November 25, 2009 11:44 AM in reply to ogliberal
The Dems may have the majority, but the media is still controlled by republicans and big business and they are determined to de-legitimize this President and the party.
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masanf
November 25, 2009 11:22 AM
It is pathetic, given the Rasmussen's record of accuracy that people on this site still try to claim he is some sort of fraud because his polls produce results that partisan hacks don't like. I guess he is wrong about Obama's approval rating too, right? Oh, wait, pretty much everyone has one of the worst presidents ever below 50%.
And the notion that an appointed Senator who will have been in office about two years will have more clout than Guiliani is a laughable joke. The partisan hackery here makes Sean Hannity and Keith Olbermann look measured and reasonable.
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ogliberal
November 25, 2009 11:38 AM in reply to masanf
"given the Rasmussen's record of accuracy"
Yeah, record of accuracy in head-to-head polling in the days before the election v. the actual results. LV models are actually the best to use that late in the race because you pretty much have an idea who is going to go out to vote. A year before the election? Who knows? Rasmussen pretty much nailed the final 2008 results in his final poll but for months before that his polls were much kinder to McCain than others. And remember those wacky Zogby and IBD polls that actually showed McCain ahead soon before the election? Remember how those polls suddenly switch to numbers that almost matched the final results just days before the election? Pollsters can fool with their models to get results they want without actually doing anything sleazy. (unless, of course, they don't disclose those models...which is something I think Zogby is pretty poor at)
" Oh, wait, pretty much everyone has one of the worst presidents ever below 50%."
Rasmussen is the only one that has Obama in net negatives and has shown this for a lot longer than other pollsters. Yesterday, he had Obama at -7. Gallup had him at +5. Yeah, he was under 50% in Gallup but that a 12 pt difference between the two. Rasmussen is and has been the outlier, not the norm. And applying an LV model to a guy who isn't up for re-election until 2012? Does anybody know who the LVs are going to be in November 2012? And why do you apply an LV model to approval ratings? If you had polled LVs a year before the November 2008 election, Obama probably would have placed near the bottom of the list, with folks like Clinton, McCain, Guiliani, Edwards, and Romney well ahead of him.
Speaking of 50% - You do realize that Reagan actually fell below that mark quicker than Obama (even with the benefit of the "somebody shot me" sympathy approval), stayed below it for quite some time, but then won a landslide victory in 1984? I have no idea how you can judge Obama to be the worst president ever after 10-months. You may not like him but worst president every? That, my friend, is partisan hackery.
As for Giuliani standing a chance of winning the Senate seat in New York? Well, now that's laughable.
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masanf
November 25, 2009 11:22 AM
What are you morons going to claim next? That 2010 is looking like a good year for the Democrats?
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lousgirl84
November 25, 2009 11:45 AM in reply to masanf
You bet and it is and you will be ripping your hair out the day after election day.
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ogliberal
November 25, 2009 11:46 AM in reply to masanf
And you know that it won't be a year out from the actual election? If we based our predictions on the polling landscape a year out from the actual election, the 2008 presidential race would have been Rudy v. Clinton with Giuliani winning the WH.
2010 could certainly be a bad year for the Dems. But if HCR passes, if Afghanistan starts to turn the corner, and if unemployment drops to around 6 or 7% (all possibilities but far from certainties), I don't think people will be looking at the do-nothing GOP, the folks who got us into this mess in the first place, and saying, "They look good!"
And speaking of Rasmussen, he's the only pollster showing the GOP with a lead in the congressional generic ballot. And it's not even close - he's got them ahead by 7%. Isn't that an outlier? The Pollster.com generic ballot average is 44.3-43.0 in favor of the Dems. If you exclude Rasmussen from this average, the Dem lead jumps to 48.1-41.4. Is Rasmussen right while everybody else is wrong. Or is Rasmussens "skews towards old, white people" LV model the wrong model to use this far out from the actual election?
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gharlane
November 25, 2009 1:47 PM
I wonder if Rasmussen disclosed to their pollees that Zacarias Moussaoui, aka the 20th hijacker, was tried in a civilian court in Virginia rather than a military tribunal (USDC, ED Va.), and is now federal prisoner #51427-054 serving a sentence of life without parole at the federal ADX Supermax prison in Florence, CO, destined to die, alone, with a whimper, in solitary confinement in a windowless cell after several years of existence in the living hell that is the federal supermax facility. Oh, and he was a non-US citizen too.
But it was the Bush DOJ that tried Moussaoui, which makes it OK.
I wonder if Rudy will once again campaign (thanks, Mr. Biden) on the theme of noun, verb, and 9/11. We'll see.
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ilovebacon
November 25, 2009 3:17 PM
"Oh, wait, pretty much everyone has one of the worst presidents ever below 50%."
You really are an ignoramus. Ten months into their first year both Reagan and Clinton were under 50%. They took office toward the end of major recessions. As things improved on the economic front, they basked in the economic glow. All economic indicators show big improvement coming down the pike. Obama is fortunate to have taken office at the end of the recession.
It's amazing how many of you guys think election day is in two months. Sheesh!
He will EASILY win re-election.
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VivaAmerica!
November 25, 2009 3:37 PM
Excuse me, I live in New York and the NY Daily News ran a front page story on how NY-ers are saying "bring it on!". They had polls showing that the majority of us welcome the trials.
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gharlane
November 25, 2009 4:14 PM in reply to VivaAmerica!
Well, that's Rasmussen for ya. Stop reading them damn lying librul papers. The NY Post will give you the Real American facts.
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runfastandwin
November 25, 2009 6:02 PM
Hey whatever happened to President Guiliani? I seem to recall another Rasmussen poll about 22 months back or so that had him in the White House in a cakewalk. I think Rasmussen ought to be banned from polling for a cycle or two, based on their abysmal record.
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runfastandwin
November 25, 2009 6:04 PM
I also seem to recall a poll giving us Senator Guiliani in a landslide, a few years back. Now Hillary is SOS and Guiliani is, well I don't know whayt he is other than the guy who put the NYC emergency communications center in the WTC. Good work chump.
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