The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Florida Republican Senate primary finds conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio catching up on moderate Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers: Crist 47%, Rubio 37%. Way back in January, Crist was ahead by 57%-11%.

Crist became vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge when he endorsed the stimulus package, and even hugged President Obama. He has since denied that he endorsed it, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Kos thinks Rubio will easily win the race: "Crist's only chance for political survival is a party switch, to either (I) or (D)." The poll also finds that the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek, is currently a non-player against either Crist and Rubio, and only becomes relevant in a three-way race with an independent Crist, which is roughly tied (full numbers not yet released).

(Via Dave Weigel)