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Poll: Snowe Could Lose 2012 GOP Primary In Landslide To Conservative Challenger
Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 11:07AM
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
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A new survey of Maine from Public Policy Polling (D) has some dire news for Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), with the moderate Republican potentially losing her 2012 Republican primary against a generic conservative challenger -- and by a landslide, no less.
The numbers: Conservative challenger 59%, Snowe 31%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. It is of course a long way from the idea of a generic conservative challenger to having an actual candidate, but the potential for success by just such an insurgent is certainly there.
Snowe's overall approval is 51%, to 36% disapproval. Democrats approve of her by 60%-29%, Republicans disapprove by 40%-46%, and independents approve by 51%-33%.
The pollster's analysis notes the importance of her vote for a health care bill in the Senate Finance Committee: "Snowe's numbers are steady with independents but down with both Democrats and Republicans compared to three weeks ago, an indication of the perilous political position she finds herself in. Republicans are mad at her for supporting any Democratic bill, while Democrats still are not completely happy with her because of her hesitance to support a public option."
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A Missouri voter
November 10, 2009 11:17 AM
How long before Snowe comes to the same realization as Specter and simply switches parties?
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 11:20 AM in reply to A Missouri voter
That may help her, but how does having another Blue Dog help the Democrats, particularly one who tends not to accept direction gracefully?
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Stroszek
November 10, 2009 11:24 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
Specter's been a loyal soldier on health care.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 11:32 AM in reply to Stroszek
I think Specter has always been more moderate than Snowe. I don't see him as a blue dog, particularly since PA is not as red as ME (although both are purple in the final counting). If I had to pick one to stand behind me with a knife, I'd probably pick Arlen (although I'd still put on some Kevlar and wear a rear view mirror).
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 10, 2009 11:44 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
Obviously, we're all speculating here, but I think that, like Specter, once she shook off the wingnut chains and didn't have to strain what she believed through the filter of a Republican base gone mad, she'd find out that, in her heart of hearts, she's a lot more liberal than she thought she was. (Which, ironically, means the wingnut assessment of her is, for once, completely accurate).
But I doubt it would change her vote on healthcare. She's just too invested in her thoroughgoing mulish wrongheadedness on the public option to walk it back at this point.
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tchamp77
November 10, 2009 12:22 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
You're assuming she has two hearts? I barely count one...
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jjdjjd
November 10, 2009 1:56 PM in reply to tchamp77
specter is for specter. snowe is for maine. big difference.
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tosh
November 10, 2009 4:11 PM in reply to jjdjjd
Agree generally on this. I also think that if she sheds the GOP, she's much more likely to drift to the "center" of the Dems rather than towards the "right" of the Dems with Ben Nelson. No one expects here to turn Progressive, but she probably had more in common with DiFi than with Ben Nelson... or anyone in the GOP Caucus other than Susan Collins.
I don't think she jumps right now, and unless she starts getting completely trashed by the wingnuts *and* he own Caucus, she's not likely to jump until it's most beneficial to her. I've made this post before. It's most likely that she'll jump after the 2010 elections, or if Lieberman jumps to the GOP in the coming months. If the Dems lose seats in 2010, having Snowe and Collins jump gives them their 60 back. While the two would probably love to play their roll as "winnable GOPers" on bills, it puts Snowe at risk of her 2012 election. It also leaves he open to a Dem opponent getting established in advance of her jumping, and turning her into another Specter where neither party is fond of her.
What does she get out of jumping in 2010? Likely pulling over all or most of her seniority along with some bone committee chair. For Collins being able to come over with her seniority is a bone as well.
They do have issues with Luttenberg (who got completely screwed on seniority when saving the Dem's bacon by running for a seat again) and Specter (who went to the end of the line when jumping). But the Specter looks like it might have a way of sorting itself out in the primary. ;) And Luttenberg is old as dirt, and the quite possibly can find him a bone.
Jumping right now... Snowe doesn't have a lot of leverage to play. The Dems would love to move past 60, but they would think they're getting another Ben-Ben. It's not like Collins would instantly jump, and instead look to for the best time for her own jump.
So, look for either:
* more hate aimed at her from the wingnuts and her own Caucus; or
* Early 2011 after the 2010 election when she looks for the best time to max out her (and likely Collins) leverage
Since she probably won't vote for the final healthcare bill unless it has her beloved Triggers, she's not going to be getting a ton of wingnut hate for the balance of the year. Some, but at a level she can ignore relative to what say Crist is eating.
John
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Overreach THIS!
November 10, 2009 4:26 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
How'd you like to have Traitor Joe to the rear?
"This multiple stabbing of my ally and friend was a matter of conscience for me."
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Connecticut Man1
November 10, 2009 11:54 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
If her switch is accepted so she keeps her seniority in exchange for not filibustering...
Gamechanger and worth it.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 12:08 PM in reply to Connecticut Man1
As Steve says above, she probably won't switch on health care. That said, I don't see her coming around to help the Dems on most other issues either. I'm guessing the the Repubs see her as an asset and will let her do what she needs to to stay in the Senate Club. No wild-eyed yellow-toothed scumbagger challenger for Snowe.
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Overreach THIS!
November 10, 2009 4:22 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
She wouldn't even on filibustering? If she wouldn't do even that, the Dems probably wouldn't take her anyway.
She could switch and give pious talk about how she thinks her position is right for Maine, but she will allow a vote even though she hopes her dead-on-arrival position is eventually adopted.
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Cool Blue Reason
November 10, 2009 12:03 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
The dynamic would be completely different if she switched parties. She is currently triangulating on health care precisely because of the Republican primary electorate -- not the broader constituent base in her state.
If she switched from playing "moderate Republican" to become a Democrat, I think she would feel free to move pretty much to the center of the Democratic caucus (not its right). There is really no political dynamic in her state that would pull her in the Blue Dog direction.
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merlot
November 10, 2009 12:09 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
Agreed.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 12:13 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
"Conservative challenger 59%, Snowe 31%, with a ±4.8% margin of error." There's also that repeal of gay marriage thingy. This tells me (who is clearly not a political genius) that ME trends conservative, i.e., the Blue Dong / GOP / Scumbagger spectrum.
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Darrius
November 10, 2009 12:59 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
But Obama won her state by 17 points. If Obama is on the ticket he will pull the Maine electorate to the left. That probably why she is the only Republican willing to play ball.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 1:30 PM in reply to Darrius
That presumes that Obama will be as popular in '12 as he was in '08. My crystal ball is in the shop right now.
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jjdjjd
November 11, 2009 5:05 AM in reply to Darrius
the way obambi is going he be lucky to be re-nominated, watch out for hillary. i hear she be waiting for the big mistake then she gunna pounce like a cougar on a 18 year old boy. and we all know the big mistake is coming.
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midnight rambler
November 10, 2009 1:53 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
The gay marriage bill was 53-47, almost identical to California. And the anti-tax measures went down 70-30.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 2:16 PM in reply to midnight rambler
They have two Republican senators. As I said, it's a purple state.
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JNagarya
November 11, 2009 1:31 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
It's the backwoods inbreeding.
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ched
November 10, 2009 4:30 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
Perhaps the best way to flush her out would be for a decent Dem candidate to start running now. She might then be more prone to jump before Candidate X started getting endorsements, money, etc.
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sparrowskate
November 10, 2009 12:13 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
Blue dogs are in the house, not the Senate.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 12:14 PM in reply to sparrowskate
Okay, ConservaDem. Better?
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fkaZk0sm0
November 10, 2009 12:22 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
no. at least "blue dog" is an actual thing.
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kdan423
November 10, 2009 12:17 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
Exactly. The Democrats don't need any more Blue Dogs.
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A Missouri voter
November 10, 2009 12:17 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
Your point is well taken. It is not clear that we would benefit from her switching parties. I am simply wondering how much longer the "Republican moderate" species can survive the Darwinian pressures at work in modern America.
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Icon
November 10, 2009 1:25 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
Following a party-switch, the politician has to bolster their credentials in their new party in order to both be accepted as a member of the caucus and more importantly be accepted as a member of the party when the next primaries are coming
Currently, if Snowe wanted to switch parties, she'd have to take up more liberal positions on key issues than she has previously in order to be able to fend off a potential democratic challenge in 2012.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 1:32 PM in reply to Icon
Which is probably why she'll either stay where she is or go Independent if the scumbaggers try to primary her.
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Andreams
November 10, 2009 1:50 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
Senator Snowe would be less of a blue scum than a lot of them we already have and at least she seems to vote her principles instead of her campaign contributions. I keep telling myself we have to be inclusive and realize our strength as a party is because of that.
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Delores
November 11, 2009 12:27 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
I think that Snowe could win in 2012 as a Democrat (name recognition + Democratic, Independent and Moderate Republican votes) over a Looney Right winger....and it would be one more Democratic member in Congress. (which would help in keeping Demmocrats as party of majority)
Not sure if an unknown Democratic candidate could win against a Looney Tunes Right Winger...and a Blue Dog is better than a Crazy Person.
speaking of which....when is Lieberman up for reelection?
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btbradley86
November 10, 2009 11:21 AM in reply to A Missouri voter
Let her stay, get primaried, then an electable democrat can take the seat and we would waste a lot less time bargaining our positions to the right.
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Dogger
November 10, 2009 11:59 AM in reply to btbradley86
That's perfectly sound and reasonable. If Joe Sestak can beat Spector in the PA Democratic Primary, perhaps other progressives will be emboldened.
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rwc
November 10, 2009 3:00 PM in reply to btbradley86
That's how I feel. We already have too many conservative Dems. It's not like a progressive Dem isn't electable in Maine. Let her be taken down by the GOP right and I'll bet the real Dem would win.
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FreeRider
November 10, 2009 11:48 AM in reply to A Missouri voter
Does Maine have an open primary?
The Republicans won't primary her. She would lose and the Dem would win the general.
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Xantar
November 10, 2009 11:56 AM in reply to FreeRider
Hoffman calling on Line 2...
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Parvus
November 10, 2009 12:33 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
The Democrats don't need another opportunist party-switching career politician in their ranks. They have enough of their own obstructionists and DINOs.
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btbradley86
November 10, 2009 12:48 PM in reply to Parvus
I OBJECT!!! Let us not stoop down to the tea party purist levels! Let them call thier own RINOs....we shouldnt be doing it!
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LindaR
November 10, 2009 2:34 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
If Snowe switches to the Democratic Party, they should give her the chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee!
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Overreach THIS!
November 10, 2009 4:18 PM in reply to LindaR
Good one!
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BobOnLSD
November 10, 2009 11:18 AM
Fence-sitters will not survive the next round of primaries in many districts. It's time for Snowe, Lincoln, Lieberman, et al. to pick a side and aggressively support it. Oh, wait ... Lieberman has already done that ...
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rb6
November 10, 2009 11:52 AM in reply to BobOnLSD
Agree: to some extent, this is the fate deserved by unprinicipled moderates, and by that I mean, people who define themselves only in relation to someone who is "too" liberal or "too" conservative -- without regard to specific policy positions, and clearly and visibly subject to the sway of special interests.
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BobOnLSD
November 10, 2009 12:22 PM in reply to rb6
Right. My point is that "moderate" Republicans will not win over the Conservative/Teabag crowd because they split hairs on health care -- or anything else. It's all or nothing with that bunch -- burn in hell if you don't agree on the minutia. Better to figure that out early (like Specter) and move to a party that allows a significant degree of variation. Maybe too much, but that's a different discussion.
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Bleacher Creature
November 10, 2009 11:19 AM
I highly doubt that Snowe will take the proper lessons from this poll, but it would appear that the best move would be to move to the left, which would entail supporting the public option. Does she really think that moving to the right will endear her to the teabag base? And if so, how far is she willing to move?
Time will tell, but this is interesting.
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FreeRider
November 10, 2009 11:50 AM in reply to Bleacher Creature
I don't think she will filibuster healthcare. She may not vote for it but filibustering it when her state went for Obama by 18 points ain't gonna happen.
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indyguy
November 10, 2009 12:13 PM in reply to Bleacher Creature
If I can play amateur Nate Silver for a minute, let's not forget that PPP also projected a 51/34 win for Hoffman in NY-23. That fact doesn't mean that the poll is completely meaningless, but PPP seems to be assuming a much more conservative electorate than actually exists.
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Texas Aggie
November 10, 2009 12:46 PM in reply to Bleacher Creature
I have to agree that her best option would be to move toward supporting the voters of Maine. If the GOP puts up a conservative candidate who then beats her in the Republican primary, or the tea baggers put up a conservative candidate in the general election, she would lose. But if she moved to the Democrats, she would have support (notice that they gave her an overall positive in the poll) and a chance to return to the Senate.
The vote on gay marriage was close enough to support the hypothesis that Maine voters are not as wacked out conservative as the voters in say, East Texas.
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Publishermike
November 10, 2009 11:20 AM
Mainers seem to love Snowe, but if she is "Scozzofava'ed" It;s a pretty good bet that the Repubs will lose her seat in 2012. Maine just rejected one of the darling measures of the Right (Taxpayer Bill of Rights) and OVERWHELMINGLY support a looser medical marijuana provisions. Gay rights activists only barely lost a "DOM" measure. The state like its "independent Republican" and would most probably soundly reject a Teabagger on the ticket. I for one, hope it goes down that way.
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Parvus
November 10, 2009 12:37 PM in reply to Publishermike
Yeah and they also voted down marriage equality so liberals like them we don't need either.
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Publishermike
November 10, 2009 2:47 PM in reply to Parvus
So I guess you don't want anyone in California either? The vote here was close, and the other 'liberal' measures passed easily. Maine's been trending blue for a while now and its the ONLY state where the legislature had the guts to pass marriage equality. Sure it was a disappointment, but we are ahead of the majority of the country in at least having the debate.
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JNagarya
November 11, 2009 1:38 AM in reply to Publishermike
The overwhelming pot vote . . .
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SS247
November 10, 2009 11:20 AM
If she lost the GOP primary she would probably run as an independent and win anyway, so who cares.
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Former Federal Employee
November 10, 2009 11:23 AM in reply to SS247
This. This poll does not accurately measure what incumbency means to the interests that actually get out votes in Maine or anywhere else.
I hope Specter is given the chance to stick it to Toomey next fall, to demonstrate the truth of this.
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Publishermike
November 10, 2009 11:24 AM in reply to SS247
So, if she got "Scozzofava'd" she'd pull a "Leiberman." BUZZWORD ALERT!
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 11:33 AM in reply to Publishermike
"Pull a LIEBERMAN"!
Your keyboard to the MSM''s ears!
Because the Democrats of CT now know what we all knew, but many of them didn't: allow a Blue Dog into the Big Tent, and he'll take a dump all over everything you own.
Yeah. Let's definitely give that a buzzword that 'splains it all, succinctly.
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ched
November 10, 2009 4:38 PM in reply to Publishermike
One of you Down Easters needs to find out if Maine has a "sore loser" law of the type in PA that would have forbidden Arlen to run as an independent if he lost the Republik primary.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 11:24 AM in reply to SS247
So, would she join Sanders and the Dems in caucus or Lieberman and the Repubs?
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Former Federal Employee
November 10, 2009 11:28 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
I assume it would come down to what she was being offered by the caucus. The majority usually has more favors to spend than the minority.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 10, 2009 11:45 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
Lol!
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mike from Arlington
November 10, 2009 11:21 AM
You mixed approvals and disapproval one right after the other.
It's confusing for a simple man like me.
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UTMark
November 10, 2009 11:21 AM
Her party has left her behind in it's plunge into lunacy.
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rosebowl
November 10, 2009 11:23 AM
The reason for her 51% approval rating is because of support from Democrats. But patience with her is limited. If she votes against health care reform, she'll lose Democratic support in droves and most likely her re-election in 2012.
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 11:28 AM
The only thing... the only thing!.. that can save this woman, is if the Dems let her into thier Party.
MAINE DEMS: DON'T DO IT. NOMINATE A "DEMOCRAT", FOR GOD'S SAKE.
The Republican Party is not, from a nuts-and-bolts political standpoint of winning vs. losing, the party that needs to "purify", in order to win elections. The Democrats do.
The Blue Dogs are killing us. We need to put a moratorium on allowing any more of them, and that means keeping Olympia Snowe the hell OUT of the Democratic Party... AND SHE WILL MAKE A MOVE, having read all this.
Did I mention that according to the piece on Dede Scozzafava in yesterday's WaPo, she was stripped of her Republican leadership position in the NY State Assembly, last week? For the crime of endorsing a Democrat, when the Republican Party hung her out to dry?
What? You didn't hear about that? Well I'm thinking, maybe because the MSM has spent so much time and electrons, focusing on Joe Lieberman... along with Village assurances that this asshole could rape the President's daughters on the White House lawn, and still Harry and the gang would protect all his Democrat-granted power.
Nice to know we all have to play by the same damned rules, isn't it?
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 10, 2009 11:54 AM in reply to Barry Champlain
So, you see how this could be read as a rationalization for advocating that the Democratic base engaging in behavior that pretty much everyone agrees is a catastrophic mistake for the Republican base, right?
I don't disagree that certain self-described "Democrats" wouldn't be worth peeing on if they caught fire in front of you and need to be given the boot because they do more harm than good. However, I think it's dangerous to the party and to the nation, both in the long term and the short term, to treat it as a categorical, rather than hypothetical imperative (all you philosophy majors stay off my back! I'll misuse the terms if I want!).
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 12:16 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Steve, I assure you, it's not at all the same. Think about it:
Being Very Very Right, has lost elections for the R's. What do they do? Go totally right. What happens? They lose elections.
In 2008, people who never gave a crap about the "two-party system", got up off their behinds, rang doorbells, and did bake sales for the Black Guy whom many, at the time, just assumed (stupidly) would rule as a "liberal". You know... the absolute third rail of being nominated as a Dem. NOBODY is "liberal", anymore, and certainly, we can't yet elect a Black Guy...
Whether any of this was sound political thinking is immaterial; what we discovered as a nation, even though the MSM was and is loathe to verbalize this, is that there has been a large, alienated population Out There who, given the slightest tease that a real Left-leaning politician was willing to blow up the crappy system ("Change!"), would mobilize and vote twice if necessary.
So all the longtime CW warnings that the Democratic Party must never yield to its "extremist" base was bullshit. They were Out There, waiting! The numbers don't lie.
What the Village thickheadedly considers "extreme" has no equivalence, in terms of political strength, with the actual extremism of the right. For all the revelations of his conventionality, President Obama is still popular. Or do you not giggle a little, when some Republican hack refers to the majority of people in this country as "the far Left"?
It's clear: if they R's purge "moderates", they lose. If the Dems purge Blue Dogs, we win.
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Texas Aggie
November 10, 2009 12:50 PM in reply to Barry Champlain
What Barry just said.
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WestRox
November 10, 2009 3:18 PM in reply to Texas Aggie
Ditto.
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sunnysteve
November 10, 2009 11:29 AM
Look, folks, what is coming at us is a to the death struggle against conservative extremism.
We might as well play the game to win, meaning that moderate Republicans like Snowe, Crist, Scozzafava will have to switch parties or walk the plank off of their own ship. If Snowe believes she can survive any longer as a Republican or switch parties without moving somewhat to the left, she has to go. Let the Republican party in Maine primary up a looney and lose to a Democrat who is more liberal than Snowe can ever be. Even in PA, Specter should lose the primary. Let's build a more and more liberal majority, as the right wingers push their centrist party members off the cliff. Some say this is all just politics, I say it is a struggle over what direction our nation takes, backward or forward. We just had eight years of their way. Our nation is in trouble. Play smart, play for the long run, but play to win.
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VivaAmerica!
November 10, 2009 11:52 AM in reply to sunnysteve
Crist is a dud - no matter what party. Let him lose.
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rwc
November 10, 2009 3:08 PM in reply to sunnysteve
right on
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geofu54
November 10, 2009 11:31 AM
"Who did you vote for President last year?"
"Someone Else/Don't Remember" .... 7%
Who in the right mind cannot remember who they voted last year?
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 10, 2009 12:19 PM in reply to geofu54
Potheads, people on pain medication, closet alcoholics, stroke victims, people who had a head injury since then, and, of course, apolitical dumbasses, just for starters.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 12:23 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
What happened to the "right mind" qualifier?
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Cal Gal
November 10, 2009 1:27 PM in reply to geofu54
People who didn't vote, pay no attention at all to what's happening outside their house/job, and are actually ashamed about it.
And Republicans who voted for Obama and won't admit it to ANYONE.
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swmckay
November 10, 2009 11:31 AM
It's worrisome that, even here in liberal New England, the eliminationists are taking over the Republican party. This doesn't sit well with me.
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 11:42 AM in reply to swmckay
Then you must be a Republican. I'm fine with it.
I hope they keep carrying the "Dachau" posters, right into the goddamned Republican convention, up onto the stage, with Michael Steele and John Boehner and Michelle Bachmann and the gang all standing right next to 'em, on camera, Kleig lights a-blazin', on national frickin' teevee.
Mainly because when that ex-Irish street gang member and Nixon lackey, Pat Buchanan, declared a "CULTURE WAR!" on the stage of the Republican convention of 1992 in Houston... well apparently, that was too subtle for mainstream Americans to grok what was happening.
Show the idiots PICTURES. Show them who the Republicans are. Get this the hell over with, and send this Party packing.
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SS247
November 10, 2009 11:35 AM
In order for her to run as a democrat she would have to switch parties before the primary. Its not like she could switch after losing the GOP primary and then run as the democratic candidate if someone has already won the democratic primary. The GOP in Congress would be smart not to take sides so if she loses the primary but wins as an independent they can persuade her to caucus with them because they had no part in her loss.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 11:40 AM
I somehow don't see the Republicans being vindictive with Snowe if she goes against the party command. Losing her would hurt them more than it would her and even if their purist replacement were to a) beat Snowe in a primary (unlikely) and, b) beat the Dem general candidate (not so unlikely), they can't afford to lose yet even more seniority in the Senate.
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CT Voter
November 10, 2009 12:17 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
they can't afford to lose yet even more seniority in the Senate.
That's assuming that they're thinking rationally about this situation. I would say that the performance of House Republicans at last week's "rally" indicates that rationality is not a characteristic they're capable of.
And Senate Republicans don't seem all that different any longer.
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geofu54
November 10, 2009 12:25 PM in reply to CT Voter
Plus, the question is, who is this "they"? I really don't see clearly anymore. For what the party establishments want to think is one thing, but what its fringe base wants to do is totally another, apparently.
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A Missouri voter
November 10, 2009 12:29 PM in reply to CT Voter
I agree with CT Voter that one should not count on the rationality of the Republican primary electorate. That said, I heard a caller on Diane Rehm recently insist that he opposed Scozzafava because he was certain that Democratic policy initiatives would fail and he did not want the Republican brand associated with that failure. I happen to disagree, of course, that Democratic policy initiatives will be as disastrous as he thinks, but if you grant him this premise then his conclusion is quite rational. In other words, even rational actors might well decided that the loss of seniority would be worth the longer term partisan gains.
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CT Voter
November 10, 2009 12:43 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
even rational actors might well decided that the loss of seniority would be worth the longer term partisan gains.
I'll grant that there might be strategic reasons for opposing "moderate" Republicans, but the longer the fringe remains outside of power, the greater the likelihood that more and more evil Democratic policy initiatives can be put into place.
So you might get longer term partisan gains, only to arrive into a situation that you won't be able to do much about. If, for instance, some sort of healthcare reform occurs, and (and this is a big one) it makes a positive difference in people's lives, fringe Republicans will be doubly screwed (excuse my language). They'll be on record as vociferously fighting a popular program and once they regain power, they'll try to dismantle it?
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A Missouri voter
November 10, 2009 1:08 PM in reply to CT Voter
Right. If this caller on Diane Rehm is wrong about the effects of the Democratic policy initiatives (as I expect he is), then his calculations will not work out. My point was simply that if we grant such folks, for the sake of argument, that Democratic policy initiatives will produce adverse consequences and thus become unpopular, then they are right to say that it is better that those initiatives be purely Democratic and not "bi-partisan." In other words, if you grant them this point arguendo then there is a rational reason to insist on partisan purity, and it is not crazy to suppose that this purity premium would outweigh the advantages of Snowe's seniority in the mind of a rational actor.
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jolly ranchero
November 10, 2009 11:44 AM
TPM appears, shockingly, to be unaware of the extreme political polarization in America today. What you see in Congress vote-wise is just manifesting itself in the population. Neither side wants anything to do with "moderates". You're either ON our team, or you're the ENEMY. No middle ground nowadays.
This is very, very bad for governance.
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CT Voter
November 10, 2009 12:30 PM in reply to jolly ranchero
Given the vote in the House Saturday, I'd be reluctant to label the current Democrats in Congress as extremists. Republicans, sure. But not Democrats. There's too much diversity in that party, for better or worse.
Therefore, I'd say that what's bad for governance is when one heterogeneous party kow tows to an extremist, increasingly fringe group out of fear. That's bad for governance.
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Parvus
November 10, 2009 12:48 PM in reply to jolly ranchero
Extreme polarization within the Democratic party???
Where are the extreme lefties and don't throw Dennis Kucinich or Russ Feingold or Sheldon Whitehouse at me. I don't see ANY extreme leftists in the Democratic party because the Democrats and their financial string-pullers wouldn't tolerate them. The only person who even came close was Cynthia McKinney and look what the Democrats allowed to happen to her.
It's nice that we've come to believe that there has to be parity and balance in everything so that when we point out extreme right-wing authoriatarian tendencies within the GOP there's the desire to not appear partisan so we have to describe both parties as partisan. But there aren't the same type of extremists within the Democratic party....and that's a real shame because no one within that party is looking out for anyone except themselves and their own reelection.
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Cal Gal
November 10, 2009 1:32 PM in reply to Parvus
BTW, why DID Kucinich vote against the health care bill?
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niw
November 10, 2009 4:26 PM in reply to Cal Gal
He feels it is still a give away to the INS people. And he wants a single payer system.
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CranialRectalLoopback
November 10, 2009 11:45 AM
Excellent. I hope she gets primaried by the reich-wingnuts and then a real Democrat is elected. I don't want her to carpetbag over to the Democrats, as she ISN'T a Democrat. Just because her party is rocketing to the right doesn't mean that she has become more "left".
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 11:51 AM
Perhaps you should see my earlier reference to yesterday's WaPo, about what they did in NY-23, one week after the election, to Dede Scozzafava. Granted, that was the NY State Assembly, but you'd have to be terminally naive if you didn't think they took their cue from the national R party. So will the Maine R's. They are now fully underway, purging the Impure. Dede was only the beginning.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 12:20 PM in reply to Barry Champlain
I think your analogy fails as it doesn't recognize the difference between a nobody state party hack with a tin ear and no standing beyond a comparatively small district and an incumbent Senator with a strong statewide appeal who is quite cunning when it comes to getting re-elected and is adept playing the game. Dede is to Snowe as a water fountain is to Niagra Falls.
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 12:38 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
So, what are you saying? That Charlie Crist in Florida is also a nobody with a "tin ear", etc.?
Dude's a popular governor of a major state. No matter! They're fixin' to burn HIS closet gay ass at the stake!
You are operating in very dangerous territory, if you honestly think the right respects professionalism, popularity and grease, in their jihad to remake the Republican Party in their own image. Nah-anh.
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Schmed- ley
November 10, 2009 1:16 PM in reply to Barry Champlain
No, I said that Dede Scozzafava is the nobody. In your FL analogy, Rubio is the scumbagger challenger and is way ahead of Dede when it comes to political acumen. And again, your analogy fails on several levels. The FL governorship isn't nearly as important to the GOP as Snowe's Senate seat. Also, either Rubio or Crist is going to keep that governor's seat unless Kendrick Meeks becomes far more charismatic than either, so primarying Crist isn't as big a risk as primarying Snowe. Pissing off Snowe is far more dangerous on a national level than losing to Meeks.
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 7:10 PM in reply to Schmed- ley
You're probably right.
And I still don't think the R's will understand that that's the dynamic which should be respected by the R's, if they want to win back the Senate.
Take this to the bank: if they see that they can primary Snowe... they will primary Snowe. "Smart" or "pragmatic" has nothing to do with it.
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_jonny_5_
November 10, 2009 11:52 AM
The only reason Snowe gets elected is because Dems like her too.
No Matter what she does she'll get primaried because of the Purity police thing.
Her best shot is to pull a Spector, and I'm actually fine w/ the WH giving her the same deal as Spector, provided there is a Maine equivalent of Joe Sestak to keep her in check.
Then "The Deep Six" would need to find a new excuse not to vote for cloture.
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Barry Champlain
November 10, 2009 12:27 PM in reply to _jonny_5_
Why would you want this? Harry Reid has already made it clear that a "conservative Democrat" can fuck the party nine ways from Tuesday, on an ongoing basis... and if he (or she) is a member of the Old Boy's Club, he or she is immune from consequences.
Simply having her nominally in the majority, with a "D" in front of her name, will do the majority about as much good as that guy whose name escapes me, at the moment. You know. The whiny one with the droopy face? I believe they call him "Holy" something-or-other...
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_jonny_5_
November 10, 2009 12:55 PM in reply to Barry Champlain
you seem to have misssed the major part of my point...
"I'm actually fine w/ the WH giving her the same deal as Spector, provided there is a Maine equivalent of Joe Sestak to keep her in check."
Arlen has played the part of good democrat, because Sestak is challenging him from the Left, thus moving Arlen to the left w/ his votes, which count NOW. I think the Dem primary will sort out who ultimatly deserves to be on the Dem ticket. If the same thing plays out w/ Snowe, that works for me.
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howie
November 10, 2009 11:53 AM
Of course, Gen Eric-Republican won't be running in 2012. The wingnut will have a name, a face, and maybe a record. If the Club targets the race, the candidate will compete money-wise, if not Snowe can still win.
Plus, we don't know if party purity will still be the rage two and a half years from now.
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Ethan
November 10, 2009 11:55 AM
I believe this. In a poll taken a few months back, Snowe is better liked by Maine Democrats than by Maine Republicans.
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runfastandwin
November 10, 2009 11:56 AM
Come on over Senator Snowe. We welcome you with open arms. The only thing your party has for you is a clenched fist.
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Walter Mitty
November 10, 2009 12:06 PM in reply to runfastandwin
Just like Lieberman, Nelson, Bayh, Landrieu are warmly embraced. She's not going to switch parties and become Sherrod Brown.
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jeffgee
November 10, 2009 11:59 AM
Uh oh. Sarah Palin smells blood.
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onecrappyusername
November 10, 2009 12:04 PM
I'm all for the GOP imploding, but democrats need to realize that we don't want or need their cast-offs. Specter, Snowe, Scozzafava....the former gop moderates of today are the blue dogs of tomorrow.
We should be promoting smart, young democrats from the rank and file, not opening our already huge tent to a bunch of losers who will act as a brake on progressive legislation.
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artgurrl
November 10, 2009 12:07 PM
If Snowe does become a Democrat, she will have to help pass the health care bill with a strong public option otherwise the Democrats and Independents in her state won't help her win the primaries. She's backed into a corner if she stays with the GOP and she's backed into another corner if she leaves the GOP for the Democratic party. Either way, she will only win if she votes for the public option.
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Indie Pro
November 10, 2009 12:09 PM in reply to artgurrl
a strong public option
currently there is no bill with a strong public option. The CBO score for the house PO has it coming in more expensive than other policies
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Indie Pro
November 10, 2009 12:08 PM
the democratic party is the new conservative party.
and there is no party for common people.
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mophan
November 10, 2009 1:03 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Right on.
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rwc
November 10, 2009 3:24 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Yes, the Dems are roughly equivalent to the conservative parties of Europe. The GOP represents the rightwing of Le Pen National Front-type parties. There is no left here, like the Labor or Social Democrat parties of Europe. The closest we come is my late beloved Sen. Kennedy, Bernie Sanders and a few leftwing Dems like Kucinich, though even they would be in the conservative half of a Labor of SD party in Europe.
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kash79
November 10, 2009 12:12 PM
If I'd to bet I'd say she would filibuster the healthcare bill in the Senate to reconcile with at least with some of her republican base, because democrats in Maine seem to love her anyways.
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Steve Gilpatrick
November 10, 2009 12:17 PM
As a Maine native, I can't believe this poll. Her district is far too liberal for this sort of idiocy to occur. Up North where Collins comes from any thing can happen. Potato land. The South, far too educated for an extremist coup.
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fkaZk0sm0
November 10, 2009 12:23 PM in reply to Steve Gilpatrick
senators don't have districts.
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A Missouri voter
November 10, 2009 12:25 PM in reply to Steve Gilpatrick
What do you mean "district"? Senators are elected by the whole state, not by portions thereof.
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jdb316
November 10, 2009 1:25 PM in reply to Steve Gilpatrick
Remember that they're talking about a primary election here, not a general election. In most states, the primary is closed - ie, limited to voters who have registered with that particular party. The Republican primary electorate in Maine is going to be far more conservative than the General Election electorate. And the national Republican leadership seems content to use that more conservative electorate to get rid of moderates, even if it means they end up losing the seat in Congress.
Snowe's superior ability to win a general election in Maine over a staunch conservative is irrelevant to them. Party purity and unity is most important.
The one thing Snowe would have going for her, even in a primary, is the fact that her seniority in the Senate allows her to earmark federal money for Maine in a way that a freshman Senator, regardless of party, can't. And in a rural and not especially affluent state like Maine, the ability to bring home the bacon is a big deal (see Don Young in Alaska).
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barrelhse
November 10, 2009 12:24 PM
She will be able to carry her health benefits no matter what, unlike the position my family is in. I'm from Maine, screw her.
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aatdb
November 10, 2009 12:28 PM
Isn't all this speculation on Snowe and the magic 60 votes just one more reminder of how crazy the current system is? If majority rule became the norm in the Senate, we could stop letting the Senate minority dictate policy.
It really is lunacy. By definition, the conservatives goal is to stop change and currently the system lets them achieve it by managing to hold on to 41 votes in the Senate. Progressives, who by definition seek positive change, must get at least 60 votes to achieve theirs.
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_jonny_5_
November 10, 2009 2:21 PM in reply to aatdb
I hear your frustration,
That said, I don't want Repubs running amok if they somehow get 51 votes. Dems likely won't be in the majority forever, so as frustrating as it is, the instrument of the filibustermust be preserved.
Although I would prefer it if Repubs(and/or Dems) were forced to activly filibuster ie. hold the floor so everyone can see who is holding up progress.
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LuxVeritas
November 10, 2009 12:32 PM
Hahahahaha, DO IT!
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Dunvegan
November 10, 2009 12:42 PM
I know how difficult it is to watch laws or sausage being made.
Breaking: Bachmann's Gotta Gun!
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2586/4089617977_66a328065e_o.jpg
But Snowe takes that absurdity to a new level.
Palin/Bachman in 2012 FTW
Nuttrs All: http://twitter.com/palinBachmann
(At least the Democratic party wins.)
I hope Sarah is still seeking the Executive in 2012.
Laissez les bon temps rouler...Let the good times roll.
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jjdjjd
November 10, 2009 2:53 PM in reply to Dunvegan
figures that you would speak french
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ttarleton
November 10, 2009 1:04 PM
The teabagger crusade to purify the GOP continues! These purges are like cannibalism, only serving to further reduce the party's numbers as the remaining sane members flee in horror.
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mmanion
November 10, 2009 1:12 PM
I don't get how this is "shocking" to liberals. Moderates are the fringe of the new Republican party and hard line evangelical, tea-bagging bullies and their representatives in Congress ARE the mainstream Republican party. It concerns me that the left is so dismissive of this and treats it like some sort of aberrant phase. The mass appeal of a clearly ignorant and mentally man like Glenn Beck and narcissistic bullies like Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin should disabuse any liberal of the notion that reason and common sense will ultimately carry the day.
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CT Voter
November 10, 2009 1:22 PM in reply to mmanion
I got called a troll for trying to make the point that the fringe is now "mainstream Republicanism". Repeatedly. I agree with you.
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Cal Gal
November 10, 2009 1:14 PM
Dear Olympia,
Come on in. The water's fine.
Arlen
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jjdjjd
November 10, 2009 1:59 PM in reply to Cal Gal
sure arlen, if you enjoy being the junior member on every committee. plus you are in your last year in the senate. hahahahahahahahahha
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clareA
November 10, 2009 4:56 PM
People in Maine love Olympia Snowe and re-elect her by large percentages. People in Maine loved George Mitchell before her (he resigned) and voted him in by large percentages.
People here voted against a stupid tax measure and for medical marijuana this month. The vote against same-sex marriage was pretty close (and recently even the Left Coast couldn't keep it legal).
Your usual knee-jerk narratives don't necessarily apply here.
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