Polls Show No Obvious Winner In New Jersey

Let's take a look at the final polls in New Jersey, which present a mixed bag of results and really no clear verdict as to who will win the close race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

This race will really come down to two big questions: a) Which side is the better get-out-the-vote operation, and b) If independent Chris Daggett loses support in the voting booth, how many of his breakaway voters will be Corzine-leaners or Christie-leaners? Given past history in New Jersey, the Democrats probably have the edge on the first question. The second question, however, is simply unknowable at this time.

• The Monmouth poll has Corzine ahead 43%-41%, Daggett at 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. The previous poll from late last week had Christie ahead by 43%-42%-8%. The movement from one poll to the next was not statistically significant.

• The new Democracy Corps (D) poll has Corzine up 41%-37%, plus Daggett 15%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Corzine was ahead 43%-38%-12%.

• SurveyUSA has Christie ahead 45%-42%, and Daggett 10%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. Late last week, Christie and Corzine were tied at 43%-43%-11%.

• Quinnipiac has Christie ahead 42%-40%, and Daggett 12%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. Last week, Corzine was ahead by 43%-38%-13%.

• Public Policy Polling (D) gives Christie a healthy lead of 47%-41%, and Daggett 11%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. Last week, Christie had a narrower lead of 42%-38%-13%.

• Fairleigh Dickson has Corzine ahead by 43%-41%-8%, with a ±3% margin of error. A big caveat, though: This poll is a collection of data over 11 days, partially including data from a previous survey. So make of it what you will.