The White House for more than a week has been saying today's elections don't reflect on the 2010 landscape for the Democratic party or President Obama.
That's been echoed by Democrats across the spectrum today as the party braces for a probable loss in Virginia, a possible loss in the 23rd Congressional district in New York and a toss-up in New Jersey.
"I don't think looking at the two gubernatorial races, you can draw with any great insight what's going to happen a year from now any more than if Jake's team wins tomorrow night I can tell who's going to win next year's World Series," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today.
"We don't look at either of these gubernatorial races or the congressional race as something that portends a lot for our legislative efforts going forward or political prospects in 2010," he added.
"In 2001, President Bush lost Virginia and New Jersey. I don't believe that it impacted his legislative initiatives going forward," Gibbs said.
But TPM intern superstar Darius Tahir went searching, and found plenty of examples of Democrats saying Bush was doomed.
Terry McAuliffe told the New York Times in 2001 right before his party won both Virginia and New Jersey, "I view it as a referendum on the Republican party and their stale ideas."
After the election McAuliffe said: ''When the president is at 90 percent approval and they run an anti-tax message where the chairman of the party is the governor of the state and yet our Democratic candidate wins the governorship, there's something fundamentally wrong with the Republican message.''
In 2005, Democratic strategist Mo Elleithee, then a spokesman for Tim Kaine and now working for Creigh Deeds, told the New York Times that George W. Bush "fired up our base" by campaigning for Kaine's Republican rival Jerry Kilgore.
"My expectation is to win two governors races in two tough states," New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, then-chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, told the Times in 2005. "And to come into the '06 election with some momentum, while Republican policies are collapsing."
On the flip side, Democrats might like this post-2005 loss quote from Danny Diaz, then of the Republican National committee.
"Local races have always been about local issues," Diaz said.
The Democratic National Committee today sent reporters a CNN poll showing Obama's approval rating is "nearly identical" to what he had last year when he won the presidential election.
Not everyone got the message, though.
In New York yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden asked supporters to vote for Democrat Bill Owens and "Join us in teaching a lesson" to Republicans.
"President Obama is counting on us," Addisu Demissie, an Organizing for America political director, told supporters in an email yesterday urging voters to make calls for Deeds and Corzine.
TPMDC interviewed Howard Dean earlier today, and he said the pre-spin was "silly."
"If the Democrats won everything I'm sure the White House would say what a great referendum this is on Obama," he said. "We play this game every four years. These races are mostly local."
We clipped Gibbs' spin this afternoon:
Late update: Republicans are sending around and using in interviews this Roll Call quote from Rahm Emanuel, the current White House chief of staff who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2005:
"Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people's interpretations of the upcoming election," Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party's 2006 recruiting efforts."

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 3, 2009 7:01 PM
No matter what happens, I predict the hyperventillating stupidity from the cable asshats will be so thick tonight, you'll need a chainsaw to cut it.
I also predict that the sun will rise tomorrow.
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geofu54
November 3, 2009 7:18 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
I won't watch any cable tonight. Just to maintain my sanity.
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lousgirl84
November 3, 2009 7:25 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
There is a great special on HBO tonight - called By The People. I recommend it rather than watching the talking heads crap all over themselves tonight.
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Economides
November 3, 2009 7:04 PM
note to political reporters: all politicians say what best serves their interests. Political operatives are paid to say it. Since this is as predictable as the sun rising in the east, how can it possibly be news?
note #2 the question is not whether some paid to say something says it, but whether what they say is true. But thatwould require you to actually understand the issues at play in each election, and even moreso, why the voters are voting the way they do.
So how was Corzine doing in the polls before Obama was elected. How about Deeds. And has a democrat even come close to winning ny 23 before.
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TaraV
November 3, 2009 7:27 PM in reply to Economides
What you are saying is true. But the reason I like this story is that I thin it is important to remind ourselves that our side has hypocrites too.
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rj
November 4, 2009 3:49 AM in reply to Economides
Thank you, o thank you, Economides...
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xargaw
November 3, 2009 7:06 PM
I don't know what will happen tonight although it doesn't look too good for the DEMs, but one thing is certain. Obama has lost some of his luster and it is self inflicted. His foot dragging on DADT, his unwillingness to let go of some of Bush's executive power grabs, and his hands off of meaningful healthcare reform that looks like a big giveaway to insurance and pharma has angered the base. He has surrounded himself with too many beltway "politics as usual" types that think nothing of betraying the public wants and needs.
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Weeferdog
November 3, 2009 7:08 PM
Nice headline. Christ, even CNN, today, debunked this 'referendum on Obama' bullshit. Hey TPM -- get back to your roots and quit the nonsense.
Weeferdog
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Walter Mitty
November 3, 2009 7:11 PM in reply to Weeferdog
TPM will always be a left-leaning blog. This title screams of self-loathing.
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Maritza
November 3, 2009 7:11 PM
Chuck Todd says the exit polls has Obama's approval rating at 51% in Virginia and 57% in New Jersey so because of that he said that this election was NOT a referendum on Obama.
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Stroszek
November 3, 2009 7:14 PM in reply to Maritza
Especially if we win in New Jersey...
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roxanne
November 3, 2009 7:17 PM
Yes, but exit polls taken tonight in New Jersey and Virgina showed that 56% and 60% stated that Obama had no affect on their vote. Perhaps 2001 and 2005 were Bushes fault.
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lousgirl84
November 3, 2009 7:27 PM in reply to roxanne
People never tell the truth anyway so what's to believe here. We shall find out when the polls close (or maybe not if its too close). I think Corzine will pull it out, Remember in the November elections, they kept saying New Jersey might go red. See how well that came to pass
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runfastandwin
November 3, 2009 7:23 PM
Everything that happens today will be forgotten until 2014 when it all plays out the same way again. Or not. Who cares.
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roxanne
November 3, 2009 7:30 PM
I actualy live in New Jersey so, I'm hoping my state doesn't turn wingnut. Republicans really suck. While Corzine faced serious problems when he came in and some things have improved, there is still plenty to be done. At least he's a member of the party in power because the party out of power can't do a damn thing but act out. I still would never vote Republican. That said, these local races have less to do with Obama in Washington and more to do with the actual conditions in these states. Except for Upstate, New York where this creepy, crazy eyed, carpetbagging, teabagging, wingnut has come in with Dick Armey to try and seat this buffoon as an expression of their rightwing lunacy! I hope he gets crushed by the Dem just to see what the teabaggers heads explode!
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CT Voter
November 3, 2009 7:31 PM
A note of sanity:
"If the Democrats won everything I'm sure the White House would say what a great referendum this is on Obama," he said. "We play this game every four years. These races are mostly local."
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jeffgee
November 3, 2009 7:33 PM
NY-23 is more of a referendum on Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin than it is on Obama. Dems haven't been elected in that district since the 1870s, so any gain is a plus even if they lose to Hoffman.
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mc mark
November 3, 2009 7:38 PM
How can NY23 be a referendum on Obama? It's been a republican stronghold for over a hundred years.
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dswx
November 3, 2009 7:40 PM
Shame on TPM for running with this meme. CBS News reports that exit polls in Virginia and New Jersey found that majorities of voters in both states -- 55% in Virginia and 60% in New Jersey -- said President Obama was *not* a factor in their vote today.
TPM: Use data, not supposition. This is really a low for TPM.
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sbv
November 3, 2009 8:47 PM
as they are wont to do, the gop along with their lackey pundits, want to say this is a rejection of president obama's policies. i would suggest, particularly in virginia, it is exactly the opposite. deeds attempted, and very poorly at that, to come across as a centrist in the hopes of appealing to moderates and independents.
for not running as a progressive in full support of president obama's agenda, he lost. progressives and many of those all important moderates are upset that more, not less, has been done; and if anything, the virginia vote is an indictment of congressional democrats and their failure to pass president obama's agenda.
jobs - not that there was a stimulus but rather, in hopes of receiving some bi-partisan (read cya) support, the democrats watered down the amount of money meant to be spent on job creation and opted instead for tax cuts.
what does this mean for health care reform? it hopefully will be a lesson to the blue dogs and conservatives that the mood of the country is to get more done not less.
an argument could also be made, if rahm had supported howard dean for continuation of chairman of the dnc, in lieu of tim kaine, kaine would have run again and probably have won campaigning on president obama's agenda.
to reiterate, barack and many democrats were elected to solve the many challenges facing us; not to do less!
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