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Red Tide: After Losses In Virginia and New Jersey What Will Obama Say?

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VA-GOV candidate Bob McDonnell and NJ-GOV candidate Chris Christie

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President Obama will wake up Wednesday morning on the one-year anniversary of his historic election with two fewer Democratic governors he can call allies.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie unseated Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Virginia Republicans swept the statewide races and picked up seats in the state house as Republican former attorney general Bob McDonnell walloped state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by more than 15 points.

Here's what we know:

The White House expected to lose in Virginia, but they had high hopes the Obama machine would get voters fired up for Corzine.

Obama aides told CNN the president wouldn't watch returns, and instead would watch a basketball game.

Requests for comment or details about whether Obama spoke to the Republican victors have been met with radio silence and Obama is getting out of town Wednesday for an education speech in Wisconsin.

For days the White House has been saying the results should not reflect on Obama or his agenda going forward, but that's going to be a tough sell.

RNC Chairman Mike Steele will gloat.

It's unclear if the tea-partiers-emboldened storyline will hold up, since as of this writing the Democrat Bill Owens holds the lead in New York's 23rd Congressional district over the conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. Conservatives say they are rallying together to nominate strong candidates in 2010.

Organizing for America put in effort to help Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, but tonight already was moving on for a full focus on the future. OFA asked supporters to make calls about health care as House Democrats outlined the final details of their bill.

(Speaking of health care, both of the Republican governors-elect have said they would opt out of the public option if that were to pass.)

As OFA holds reunions in celebration of the 2008 anniversary, some Democrats involved at the state level are questioning the lasting strength of the Obama grassroots army.

Join the Conversation!

66 comments

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November 3, 2009 11:53 PM   

Here's what I say: O'Donnell looks like Tim Whatley from Seinfeld. And Hoffman needs some serious teeth bleaching. Maybe he can visit Orly Taitz, DDS. I can only hope the 'baggers continue their holy quest for Palinian purity.

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November 4, 2009 1:14 AM    in reply to Weeferdog

I think Christie veers pretty close to Newman territory. And the thought of Hoffman having dental work performed by Orly Taitz made me laugh out loud. Thanks.

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EH

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November 4, 2009 1:51 AM    in reply to commie atheist

give me a schtickle of intemperance

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November 4, 2009 8:54 AM    in reply to EH

Is the Mid term election sweep by the Republicans indicative of results in 2012?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=6427

.

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November 4, 2009 10:19 AM    in reply to JeffB

Spammer

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November 3, 2009 11:53 PM   

If Owens win I would not be surprised if the MSM glosses over it even though they made such a big deal of the race. I really want Owens to win, I'm pissed at Christie's win. Corzine wasn't any better, but dang New Jersey!

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November 4, 2009 12:02 AM   

The biggest story of the night is Christie, and W.H. will have to duck and dodge for a few days on that one. While reasons may be several, Obama had campaigned twice and W.H. clearly felt they could push Corzine past finish line. Biggest disappointment.

It hurts to think that Christie will run a blue state like NJ for four years. Ouch!

But on a national level, the outcome of these races say nothing. If anything NY-23 announces caution to the G.O.P, on their fortunes if they root for teabagger candidates in places other than deep south.

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November 4, 2009 12:18 AM    in reply to kash79

It comes down to a simple question:

How often did Christie and McDonnell mention Obama in their campaign speeches and literature in the days before the election?

The answer:

Very little, if at all.

And that brings us to another question:

If Christie and McDonnell deliberately avoided making this race about Obama, how can it be viewed as a referendum on Obama?

When Republicans aren't afraid to run against Obama, get back to me. Steele's gloating tomorrow will be the political equivalent of ringing the White House doorbell and running away.

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November 4, 2009 12:26 AM    in reply to Stroszek

When Republicans aren't afraid to run against Obama, get back to me

Why are you making that comment as a reply to my post? Did you even read my post? Coz, nothing I said has any connection to your reply. Anyway, chill.

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November 4, 2009 12:29 AM    in reply to kash79

It was intended as an affirmation of this: "But on a national level, the outcome of these races say nothing."

I should have started with an "Amen!"

xoxo

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November 4, 2009 12:26 AM    in reply to Stroszek

From what I saw in the tv ads, Christie portrayed himself as Obama-friendly.

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November 4, 2009 7:54 AM    in reply to kash79

Or maybe they (WH) can rely on exit polling that showed Obama himself made no difference in the outcomes to a majority, per se, but issues of unemployment and economic stagnation at a local level were most important?

Or maybe that the Neo purificatioin efforts resulted in a Big D person winning a race that has gone to Big Rs since the Civil War?

Nah. I'm thinking the big takeaway is that disappointment, disaffection, disgust, some other negative "d" word or simple complacence shows how control of Congress in 2010 can pass from slightly forward moving but dissapointing Democratic control back to the hands of Absolute Standstill (best case) or Dancing Madly Backward (standard outcome) by letting the purified Neo base win the get-our-the-vote numbers game — delivering control over one house of congress or the other a year from now back to the Neo anti-humanity idealogues.

Even though the medicine is bitter, watered-down but trending-toward-the-good actions from Congress still, in my book, beat hands down the insanity represented by returning once more to Neos controlling the direction of legislation.

I may be old, but am not having any difficulty remembering the lasting effects of the previous eight years.

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November 4, 2009 9:12 AM    in reply to kash79

It;s happened before and NJ survived. The good thing is that NJ always goes blue when it counts. Corzine shot himself in the foot. My sister lives in NJ. She pays almost $9000 a year in taxes on a home worth $350,000. My boss has a $2 million dollar home in California and doesn't pay half of that. The difference is in NJ they get a lot for their taxes.

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November 4, 2009 10:15 AM    in reply to kash79

Look at CA. Same thing happened here with our Governor. Hopefully Jerry Brown will soon be back.

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November 4, 2009 12:05 AM   

but that's going to be a tough sell.

Obviously! This is just like in 2001 when the Dems' big wins in VA and NJ signaled the end of the Bush presidency. Nothing captures the nation's imagination like a local race primarily about transportation policy, so Obama should expect to get soundly thumped in 2004 just as Bush was put out of his misery by John Kerry.

And certainly, I expect to see the media give Obama the same treatment they gave Bush when they spent weeks insisting that the earth-shaking rise of Jim McGreevey meant it was imperative that he dramatically scale back his plans to invade Iraq and reform education policy.

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November 4, 2009 12:08 AM    in reply to Stroszek

Post Rec'd

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November 4, 2009 12:11 AM   

Corzine and Bloomberg are banksters - Corzine loses and Bloomberg's win was much closer than anybody expected. The message the Administration should take is to get tough on Wall St, it's a political winner.

It's funny how nobody in the MSM is talking about NY-23 anymore. Fox was 24/7 Hoffman in the days leading up to the election...

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November 4, 2009 12:23 AM   

What can Obama say? He can point to NY-23, which was a repudiation of the R powers to be as much as NJ and VA were repudiations of the D powers to be, that people are sick of Washington putting the American people number 2 in the big scheme of things.

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November 4, 2009 12:59 AM   

I don't know if this is true since Sully said it, but apparently DFA was forbidden by the White House to say anything about the gay marriage issue. I don't know if it's close enough to wonder if that would have swayed people or not.

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November 4, 2009 2:06 AM    in reply to MNPundit

Sounds like the same thing that was said about Prop 8, I think. So we're going to blame this on the WH now? Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the WH been consistently silent on all these gay marriage votes? whether it won or failed?

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November 4, 2009 1:02 AM   

What will he say?

How about, it ain't 2010 yet, kids.

I would leave it at that.

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November 4, 2009 1:19 AM    in reply to voreason

How about: "Please, Republicans, run more candidates like Doug Hoffman. Pretty please? Oh, and how about nominating that lovely and talented Sarah Palin to run against me in 2012? Thanks loads."

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November 4, 2009 1:11 AM   

How Will Obama Respond To GOP Wins?

You have got to be kidding me. Did TPM morph into Politico when I wasn't looking?

How does the loss of a highly unpopular incumbent in Jersey and a Republican win in a swing state that has swung back and forth between parties, depending on which one is not in the White House, constitute a "Red Tide?"

This is the kind of conventional wisdom bullshit I would expect form a Chris Matthews or a Wolf Blitzer. I thought you guys were better.

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rj

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November 4, 2009 3:38 AM    in reply to commie atheist

Yup, agree wholeheartedly. Leaving aside NY-23 (Maddow said it's been represented by a Whig more recently than by a Dem), Corzine’s been widely detested almost since he was elected. That it was as close as it was is a testament to Obama’s popularity, without which it would have been a Christie blowout.

Dems have to aggressively counter this emerging media consensus (et tu, TPM?), which is as dangerous as it is off-base. Smart people are making sound observations and then drawing conclusions that are completely at odds with those observations. On Virginia, pundits note that Obama remains popular, that most voters were not voting against his agenda, and that Deeds was in fact a conservative rural Democrat who initially distanced himself from Obama, to the point that he’d said that as governor he might reject the public option. (He was also, of course, a crappy candidate.) They then note that the Democrats who turned out to elect Obama last year just weren't as motivated to vote as the Republicans this time. Yet they somehow conclude from that that "centrists" will now be more wary of voting with Obama and the Democratic agenda. Yeah, that's the ticket: that's just the way to motivate Democrats in 2010...jeez.

The obvious conclusion of their own analysis is the opposite: Congressional Democrats really, really, need to do what they were elected to do, starting with health care reform (yes, including a public option – the moderate compromise between single-payer and strictly private mechanisms that’s popular even in, say, Arkansas). The idea of "caution" and "centrism" and some absolutely cartoon idea of "left" have become so ingrained in DC thinking that it's blinded them to the obvious. This bogus conventional wisdom (which TPM should be better than to play into, as journalists even more than as progressives) is the perfect prescription for a bad 2010.

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November 4, 2009 6:41 AM    in reply to commie atheist

This stupid linkage between the lose of two poor and lousy candidates, to Barack Obama, is driving me crazy. The fact that it happens in places like TPM and Daily Kos is even more outrageous.

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November 4, 2009 9:52 AM    in reply to commie atheist

I said the same thing. Looks like a huffingtonpost headline not TPM. Corzine was behind the whole time. The idea he might pull it out was just a dream. VA Governship was McDonnell's to lose. This is no surprise but the real surprise is NY-23. Why isn't that the headline.

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November 4, 2009 1:17 AM   

If Obama had already gotten health care reform passed by Congress, the Democrats would have won in NJ and may have won in VA.

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November 4, 2009 2:08 AM    in reply to Rich in NJ

No Rich in NJ, this is not Obama's fault.

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November 4, 2009 1:32 PM    in reply to VivaAmerica!

So you disagree with the proposition that Dems would be better served if Obama had taken a more activist approach in the HCR debate, for example, by coming out with his own plan prior to the summer?

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November 4, 2009 10:16 AM    in reply to Rich in NJ

Like that is Obama's fault? He is not calling the shots on health care. To blame him for that one is naive.

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November 4, 2009 3:15 PM    in reply to DestinyofAmelie

It's naive to hold him blameless.

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November 4, 2009 1:22 AM   

Is this TPM or Redstate? The Dems lost 2 governorships that have no impact on the federal level, gained a house seat that has been republican for over a century, and held on to another house seat in CA. Yeah, a real lousy night.

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November 4, 2009 1:38 AM    in reply to marklouis

I think Christina really wanted to call it a "Crimson Tide," but was afraid people were going to think it was an Alabama reference.

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November 4, 2009 7:46 AM    in reply to marklouis

Amen to this. Much ado about nothing. But maybe good for the Ds to get the media frenzy over the referendum-on-Obama out in 2009, a full year before the elections that really will matter.

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November 4, 2009 1:25 AM   

He will respond by saying something like, "You win some and you lose some. But, I would like to note that MODERATES were elected in both states and the hardline conservatism of Limbaugh and Beck and Palin was rejected in NY-23. These elections have confirmed that voters do not want the Party of No, they want Republicans that are wiling to work with me on real solutions for the American people."

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November 4, 2009 2:10 AM    in reply to hewhohasnoname

Let's add CA-10 to the mix while we're at it....

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November 4, 2009 1:42 AM   

Something worth considering:

Vote Totals
McDonnell: 1,142,397
Bush (2004): 1,716,959
Obama (2008): 1,958,370

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November 4, 2009 2:16 AM   

"Red Tide?"

The Democrats won two Congressional races tonight --one that has been Republican-held for 100 years!

I sure do hope this is a sign of what's to come in 2010...

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November 4, 2009 2:28 AM   

RED TIDE?
Gonna be a tough sell for it not to reflect on Obama's agenda? Talk about swallowing the GOP meme for the night. Jeesh.

OK, NJ should be Dem, but Corzine? A Wall Street incumbent (and with some shady dealings) during this economy is not that surprising and is hard to hang on Obama. Virginia, well, Obama's people sat out, not good, but Deeds was hardly someone to get fired up about. And the Dems picked up a vote in congress. Certainly not a great night for Dems, but hardly a statement against Obama. The exit polls confirm that too.

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November 4, 2009 3:06 AM   

Anyone dumb enough to buy into the MSA nonsense about these two governors' races being won by Republicans somehow being a referendum on Obama should not be working as a journalist.

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November 4, 2009 4:01 AM   

hope it was paper ballots..

no more election coverups.

http://www.wanttoknow.info/electionscoverups

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November 4, 2009 5:59 AM   

This had NOTHING to do with Obama. His approval rating was 51% in Virginia and 57% in New Jersey.

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November 4, 2009 6:18 AM   

The wins of GOP governors will be unfortunate for the people of Virginia and New Jersey. If the people of these states thought they had it bad under Democratic governors, they have seen nothing yet. Republican politicians will not deliver the change these people seek but instead will impede it delivering more good and services to big corporations and insurance companies which will only continue the decay of these states.

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November 4, 2009 7:01 AM    in reply to Angellight

to start with a point completely unrelated to your post, i think that "independents" just have a hard time believing that republicans are that bad. they stick a republican in office, and the country/state (e.g., bush to lead the country, jim gilmore to lead the state (virginia)) goes to hell. so they elect a democrat, and the dem turns it around and gets things going in the right direction again.

so the independents think: well, republicans can't be that bad. maybe it was just a one-off that that guy screwed everything up so badly, and we shouldn't blame it on the ideology of the party. (it also doesn't help when dems run someone as distasteful as deeds.) so they elect another republican to give it another whirl. and the republican screws everything up again, and so the "independents" elect another dem to come in a fix everything. we've seen that pattern at the federal and state level for years and years.

lather, rinse, repeat.

these so-called "independents" need to come to grips with the fact that yes, republicans really ARE that bad. it's the product of their philosophy, not their individual personalities -- their theories don't work from an economic or defense perspective (they drive us into debt and make us more hated/prone to attack with their policies), while from a social perspective, they're regressive to the point of barbarism.

it's been said a million times, but it really is true that republicans are very good at winning, but suck at governing. it's just that these wishy-washy "independents" can't bring themselves to believe that.

anyway, to your main point, you're right. i live in virginia. and i agree that it's probably going to go to hell just like it did under gilmore. it's going to be worse than just catering to corporations, though. mcdonnell and his AG, cucinelli, are demonstrable bigots and misogynists. just wait 'til you see the laws passed and how (and against whom) they're selectively enforced. it's going to be rough going for some folks, i'm afraid.

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November 4, 2009 6:48 AM   

The democrats in my very red city in SC both won. Is that a referendum on Obama and have the people here become pro Obama? Hardly. They were better candidates than the Republicans, and sadly I still live in a city and state that would vote in most any GOP just because they have an R by their names.

The idea that these races mean much other than the GOP ran better candidates in both states, is ridiculous. I was surprised to see the headline on TPM.

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November 4, 2009 7:05 AM   

hi ,How does the loss of a highly unpopular incumbent in Jersey and a Republican win in a swing state that has swung back and forth between parties, depending on which one is not in the White House, constitute a Red Tide.

attorney

Moremony

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November 4, 2009 7:44 AM   

I keep hearing people say the Democratic loss is all a referendum on Barack Obama --- and I disagree.

The Democratic candidates were just not inspiring enough, and they lost on their own. Obama had nothing to do with it.

Remember one year ago today when he won the election...that same excitement still follows him today. So I don't hold him personally accountable.

Check out this story and video to see what I mean:

http://okwassup.blogspot.com

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November 4, 2009 7:59 AM   

If Virginia and New Jersey voted these guys in, look out. Maybe they should go to Tim Pawlenty for advice on how to run a state into the ground. New Jersey and Virginia have enough problems without adding these poor choices to lead them out of a bad economy and a jobless recovery. They will likely make sure the flags fly, no gays marry, no abortions happen, ACORN is chased out, and everyone except immigrants gets a gun.

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November 4, 2009 8:09 AM   

I think this presents a great opportunity. The Democraps have looked much better when the Repugs are in power than when the Dems themselves are in power.

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November 4, 2009 8:11 AM   

One quick comment from afar about Virginia:

McDonnell tracked toward the center and ran a generally positive campaign while Deeds ran a lousy campaign.

A few things to understand about the New Jersey race:

Christie went from a 19-point lead in the polls a few months ago to a 4-point win last night.

Despite his pro-insurance company, anti-choice rhetoric, Christie will have to govern as a Whitman, Kean, Cahill Republican, not the kind that hard-right primary voters would pick. Given his nutball primary opponent, Steve Lonergan, the fact that he was the nominee at all shows that NJ Republicans are much more centrist than their counterparts in the Confederacy. His win could make the center-right divide among Republicans even deeper.

The hard right, led by Lonergan also opposed the only public question on the ballot,a bond issue to enable expansion of the state's Open Space program. The question passed.

At last count, I could not find a single assembly district, senate district or mayoralty that switched parties. The Democrats still control the legislature as much as they did yesterday.

The only part of Christie's agenda that he has any chance of enacting relates to cutting state government spending. The Democratic Legislature won't let his social issues agenda, if it even exists, get off the ground.

If Christie doesn't deliver on reducing property taxes and bringing jobs to New Jersey very fast, voters will turn on him as fast and as hard as they turned on Corzine. The irony is that the strongest governor's office in the country has very little power to influence either. New Jersey's high property taxes are the rsesult of home rule run amok and New Jerseyans are only now starting to face that fact.

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November 4, 2009 8:14 AM   

New Jersey and Virginia was not about the president and polls confirm that. That said, i think last night signaled a strong message to Obama and the Democrats. The message: "Start picking up the pace." That means pass a HCR with a public option, Card Check etc. The democratic base; Latinos, African Americans, Asians, young people and women are not to be taking advantage of. Quit making backdoor deals with conservadems and republicans at the expense of core democratic policies that affect lives of millions of Americans.

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November 4, 2009 8:26 AM   

Here's the lesson I hope the White House learns: We are too passive and we are wasting our mandate. Running away from health care and the public option makes people think the Dems don't know what they want or what they are doing (both accurate, naturally). I fear, however, that Obama will draw the opposite lesson: We have been too progressive and have frightened people with our radical agenda.

Oh well, there may well be a third party soon and maybe a fourth too. Both the Repubs and Dems are cracking wide open. The difference, of course, is that the Dems are in power so they are truly pathetic.

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November 4, 2009 8:34 AM   

The "White House" will probably say the same thing Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II said. Nothing. This result was expected and follows historical trends. Check out the following:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

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November 4, 2009 10:52 AM    in reply to willia451

No. Thanks, though.

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November 4, 2009 8:41 AM   

I would expect this headline or question from Huffpo but not TPM. This is a ridiculous question. Why arent' we touting the win in Ny-23 is what I want to know? Maybe the headline should be what does Sarah Palin and the crazies think about the loss in NY-23?

I am so disappointed in TPM. Slowly but surely getting to be another huffington post

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November 4, 2009 8:48 AM   

I live in NYC and Obama was not a factor in NJ except that Corzine tried wrap himself around him. NJ was all about voters unhappiness with Corzine so I don't think the WH should pay any attention to it.

The race where Obama was a factor is NY-23 and the Dems won that seat. Frankly, if I were Michael Steele I'd try to put a muzzle on the teabaggers since they are damaging the party. Scozzafava would have won that race if the Rs had united behind her.

The one lesson I take from the night b/w Corzine's loss and Bloomberg's close call - being a rich, former Wall Streeter is no longer an advantage. People are sick of people buying offices.

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November 4, 2009 9:03 AM    in reply to jmnyc

I currently live in NYC too, although I lived in NJ for 2 years. I think you are mistaken about Obama's influence in New Jersey, jmnyc.

Obama actively campaigned for Corzine (as did Bill Clinton and Frank Lautenberg), including a final Get Out The Vote push for the Democratic base in the state.

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November 4, 2009 9:00 AM   

Last night was not a referendum on Obama. It was a referendum on INCUMBENTS. People are tired of politicians who just talk and don't produce results. That's the lesson Obama needs to take out of last night - it's time for him to shut up, grow a pair, LEAD and, most importantly, GET THINGS DONE!

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November 4, 2009 9:18 AM   

Obama will continue to do what he's been doing for months, cower and capitulate. Bad mouth progressives and praise the Lieberman's of the world.

Everyone knows that Dems must move to the center to govern, don't they?

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November 4, 2009 9:19 AM   

I'm off the cable asshats until at least mid-1010, but I'm sure they spent the night ecstatically wallowing in an orgy of stale, shallow, astonishingly uninformed and uninformative Beltway CW nonsense.

Still, listening to Juan Williams, of all people, determinedly and systematically shooting down Renee Montaigne's (possibly Socratic rather than stupid) efforts to paint last night as a referendum on Obama with actual data and analysis of exit polling was oddly heartening. Made me wonder if, for once, the MSM isn't going to give in to teh' stoopid without a fight.

And, even if they are, a week from now, there'll be a backlash the instant CW that will become the new CW and in ten days, no one will even remember last night happened.

And Christina? I know conditioned reflex is hard to resist, but you really need to come to emotional grips with the fact that Rev. Moon doesn't have the power to put you out on the street anymore. And neither does John Solomon.

Though, come to think of it, given that a red tide is a sudden, pollution-spawned bloom of mindless single-celled organisms that choke the life out of all higher life-forms in the vicinity before exhausting the artificially created burst of nutrients and dying,leaving only a dead zone as a clue it ever existed, maybe it was a well-chosen metaphor after all.

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November 4, 2009 10:50 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Christina worked for the Moonie Times? That explains a lot.

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November 4, 2009 9:44 AM   

Check out The Daily Beast. All about VA and NJ not a word about Ny-23

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November 4, 2009 10:09 AM   

Am I the only one freaked out by the photo showing the McDonnell "Stepford" Family? Virginia proves it really IS for Lovers; it loves pain.

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November 4, 2009 10:13 AM   

It is not about Obama. It is unhappiness with our country's financial mess. And these same people who voted Republican should be livid that the Senate GOP right now is in the process of stalling, for as long as they are able, extending unemployment benefits. Where is the outrage over that one? Stupid voters. And don't even get me started on Maine. So disheartening.

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November 4, 2009 10:14 AM   

As a New Jerseyan who followed the race closely (and even voted, although I just voted once...), I am not sure why the Obama camp thought Corzine would win. It was going to be tough and although I don't like Corzine, I voted for him as the lesser of two evils. Remember, Christie is the guy who is going to allow out-of-state health insurers in, so that state mandates on health care can be circumvented.
It wasn't about Obama although we are about to be hit over the head by the Republicans that it was just that. People really, really disliked Jon Corzine.
And to wake up to Eric Cantor's snarky smile on the Today Show made me want to hide for a few years.

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November 4, 2009 10:22 AM   

As a long-time resident of New Jersey, I'm pissed off and frightened. Corzine was an unpleasant person but he had a real grasp of the issues. Christie is a doofus who knows nothing at all about the problems he's facing - he's a liar and an ignoramus (hmmm...remind you of anyone?) I work in healthcare and am sure Christie's "programs" will lead to hospital closings and a worsening of New Jerseyans' health. People don't want to pay taxes, but they don't to lose the programs those taxes pay for. Corzine was honest enough to admit that; Christie doesn't even understand it. And New Jersey will pay the price for giving the governorship to a totally inadequate candidate.

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