TPMDC
RNC To Blanche Lincoln: Don't Make Us Turn You Into John Kerry
Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 9, 2009, 3:30PM
Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)
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As the full focus of the health care debate shifts to the Senate, the GOP has a tough job targeting nervous moderate Democrats. The easy part is taking advantage of Democratic Party rifts. Explaining the rules of parliamentary procedure? That's hard.
To help, the RNC has turned to a tried-and-true method of shrinking complicated Senate protocol into convenient take-home size. In a new web video out today, the RNC tells health care reform fence-sitter Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) that unless she votes with the Republicans on cloture, they'll do to her what they did to John Kerry.
Republicans want to attack Lincoln for supporting cloture, but also want to slam her for considering a no vote if and when the bill hits the floor. In a new web ad aimed at Lincoln launched today, the RNC raises the specter of Kerry, whose "I actually voted for it before I voted against it" statement about an Iraq War supplemental became the meme of the 2004 elections.
"Remember this?" The ad reads before a clip of Kerry's infamous "flip-flop" is played.
"Democrat leaders want Senator Blanche Lincoln to use the same tactic to pass President Obama's government-run health care experiment," a voice over says.
But Democrats don't want Lincoln to use the same tactic at all. In 2003, Kerry's "flip-flop" vote was actually a consistent appeal to the Democratic party's progressive wing. Kerry, who supported the war, voted the center-left line when it came to funding it: he supported a bill that would pay for the Iraq war by rolling back some of President George W. Bush's tax cuts, and against a bill that didn't. The bill he supported failed, and the one he opposed, which funded the war but didn't find a revenue stream to pay for that funding, passed.
Republicans at the time seized on the vote, calling it a "vote against our troops." Kerry, fearing that message would take hold tried to make it clear he was in favor of funding the troops with his "I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it" line. Republicans said he was trying to have it both ways, appealing to hawks with the first vote, and doves with the second.
Democratic leaders are asking Lincoln to do something very different. Lincoln favors health care reform, and a vote for cloture is the only way to assure the entire Senate debates reform this year. If the bill that comes out of that debate includes a public option, she'll likely vote no, as she has promised all along.
Ironically, it's the left who'll say they'll actually punish Lincoln for "having it both ways" as Kerry did -- if she claims she's pro-health care reform but helps to kill any chance that the Senate will debate it this year, Democrats say they won't let her get away with it. Progressive groups like MoveOn.org are planning to target senators from the Democratic caucus who vote against cloture, and they say they'll have a multi-million dollar war chest with which to do it.
Republicans, on the other had, are promising to paint Lincoln's consistent position on health care reform as a "flip-flop" if she doesn't break with her party and vote their way on cloture. They're suggesting they'll do to her what they did to Kerry and claim her vote for cloture means she supports a public option -- when she actually doesn't.
Here's the ad:
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mans_best_friend
November 9, 2009 3:38 PM
Dear Blanche: You're going to have a huge target on your back no matter what you do. Voting against health care reform is not going to buy you any votes, while voting against it will surely cost you some. It's that simple.
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johnmccsf
November 9, 2009 5:58 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Word
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nova voter
November 9, 2009 3:45 PM
yeah, and i bet that if lincoln votes no on cloture, the republicans won't run anyone against her and will just let her cakewalk to reelection. bullshit. they are the vampires outside the window, sweetly whispering that if you'll only let them in, they won't sink their teeth into your neck.
in fact, i bet these conservadems, no matter WHAT they do, are the tastiest targets for the RNC/Teabaggers in their next elections, and they're going to come full force at them.
for FSM's sake, just do the right thing, and let the chips fall where they may.
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tosh
November 9, 2009 3:51 PM
Polling among Dems in her state want the PO and this Healthcare plan. At this point she might as well vote for both Cloture and the final bill.
John
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Icon
November 9, 2009 5:26 PM in reply to tosh
The fact that she isn't willing to commit to doing what both the people who elected her and the vast majority of experts believe is right says more about her failure as an effective politician than anything else.
If she votes against cloture she should be stripped of her committee assignments and confined to crying in a corner of the Senate chamber for the rest of her term, when someone who isn't incompetent on both policy and politics will take her seat.
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tosh
November 9, 2009 7:13 PM in reply to Icon
It actually speak well of her as a pol. Isn't being a pol about either:
* getting re-elected
* moving to higher office
* setting yourself up to get rich when out of office
Blanche has done an exceptional job of the third thanks to helping out here pals at Big Health, Big Energy, Big Food and of course her bestest friends, The Walton Family.
Blanche has done this in master strategist fashion: win with all possible outcomes. If she gets re-elected, it's another 6 years of helping out her Pals. If she doesn't, her Pals will take care of her for the billions (let's be real: Trillions) she's made them.
She knows that game. She'll have the Fuck You Money to laugh at all of us while we spend the rest of our lives cursing how her generation of pols sent out country into the crapper.
She simply doesn't care. I think we all need to get use to it. Ben-Ben doesn't really care about abortion as anything more than an issue that he can use to get blood from legislative rocks.
John
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gharlane
November 10, 2009 9:43 PM in reply to tosh
Possibly the Best Short Description Ever of what it means to be an American politician. Outcome #3 is of course the big one, and the one conveniently forgotten by the apologists for the conservaDINOs on the TPM threads. Outcome #3 eviscerates the apologists' argument that these poor, poor conservaDINOs just Have To Kill The PO Because They Need To Be Reelected (even if, curiously, polling in their states or districts is in favor of the PO). They're not trying to kill the PO so they can get re-elected. They're trying to kill the PO so they can enjoy outcome #3 if they happen to not get re-elected.
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GayIthacan
November 9, 2009 3:56 PM
You mean they will do to her what they did to Mr. Owens in NY23?????
Were I Ms. Blanche, I would tell them where to shove their 'threat'. And for a change, it would not involve Republicans violating a teenage boy.
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mike from Arlington
November 9, 2009 3:59 PM
Almost all of the Republicans have voted against war funding because it had the loan to IMF if I'm not mistaken.
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fkaZk0sm0
November 9, 2009 4:07 PM
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10.
Likely voters (Arkansas). MoE 4%
Do you favor or oppose creating
a government-administered health insurance option
that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?
Favor Oppose Not Sure
All 55 38 7
Dem 81 14 5
Rep 22 71 7
Ind 56 34 10
voting against the final bill would hurt lincoln more than voting for cloture would.
are we all supposed to be under some delusion that up is down in arkansas??? i honestly don't understand.
unless the RNC just wants to use the web ad to raise $$$...
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AJM
November 9, 2009 4:24 PM in reply to fkaZk0sm0
The RNC web ad is probably well tested -- on a bet, the audience of men that the web ad probably reaches detest Kerry and the ad ties Blanche to him. They simply want the emotions attached to Kerry to get attached to Blanche and it doesn't make any difference that their logic is faulty. Like the blue background on the Christie ads making people feel good about the candidate and not realizing why -- because of all the good feelings they have had in New Jersey about Democrats such as Obama and the people seeing the Christie ads not having a clue why it made them like the candidate.
They also want people to believe that there is something wrong with voting for cloture. And there they have a point -- if you vote for cloture knowing that the bill is going to pass with the items you claim to object to you have ducked an opportunity to stop the bill.
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fkaZk0sm0
November 9, 2009 5:15 PM in reply to AJM
however, that view of procedural votes doesn't square with their ostensible purpose.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 9, 2009 4:30 PM
The real lie here is the implicit assertion that there is something she can do that will prevent them from accusing her of everything from funding Osama Bin Ladin to drinking the blood of babies.
Wake up, Blanche. Look out ahead more than the next 24 hours. You are a Democrat. You're in a conservative state. You're a woman. You're up for reelection. They're going to attack. If you vote for cloture and against the bill, they'll attack you just like they say in this ad. If you vote against the bill and against cloture, they'll attack you for being a member of a do-nothing ineffectual party who wasted time instead of creating jobs by cutting taxes. And if you vote for both, you can tell you consitituients that you stood up to the insurance companies and did what you thought was right for them. Assuming that it's still a live issue by then, which it won't be if it passes.
There is no "smart" play, here, Blanche. And if you can't do something smart, do something right. Do that and you may just Doing the right thing was the smart thing, too.
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Michael A
November 9, 2009 4:42 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Excellent, excellent points. No matter what dems do, they will be painted like you describe. Bottom line, do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may. Generally, if you do the right thing, the chips will fall where they should, one way or the other. Hopefully, some day they will wake up.
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Walter Mitty
November 9, 2009 5:07 PM in reply to Michael A
And if she votes against both, the GOP will still go after her seat AND a lot of Dems will stay home and donate elsewhere. Her only play is to vote for both and run on it loud and proud.
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AJM
November 9, 2009 11:19 PM in reply to Michael A
We have eight years of Bush to prove the contrary of your wishful thinking that the chips generally fall where they should.
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mans_best_friend
November 9, 2009 4:48 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Five bucks says she eventually caves. The pressure on her is intense. They'll promise that Bill Clinton will campaign with her six days a week. They'll promise to hire everyone in the state on road building projects. They'll promise to build a submarine base in Arkansas. But they'll get her vote in the end.
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kash79
November 9, 2009 5:04 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
It is almost certain the bill will pass the Senate. But the battle now is about who blinks first.
My guess is its Harry, he will concede to the blue dogs to make the bill much much weaker.
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mans_best_friend
November 9, 2009 6:28 PM in reply to kash79
Eventually this is all going to get hashed out in the conference committee, so maybe it's a reasonable tactical decision not to get too bogged down in the details and just get it passed. Watered-down provisions can be strengthened in conference.
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cinesimon
November 9, 2009 4:55 PM
Fear is all the republicans have.
Not one bit of truth or logic: just intimidation.
I hope Blanche Lincoln, who I don't know at all, is convinced by such cheap thuggery that maybe she has been on the wrong side of this debate so far. Surely if the RNC has a good argument they're confident makes a strong case, they'd not need to make such childish threats?
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onecrappyusername
November 9, 2009 5:01 PM
blanche is a democrat that can be pressured to vote against cloture on a democratic proposal.
that is just fucked up.
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Walter Mitty
November 9, 2009 5:03 PM
Voting for cloture is respecting the majority vote in the Senate. Voting against a bill and then voting for it's cloture - there is nothing flip-floppy about that.
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tosh
November 9, 2009 5:12 PM
Hmmmm....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_John_Kerry
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 1984:
54.99% John Kerry (D)
44.99% Ray Shamie (R)
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 1990:
57.06% John Kerry (D) (inc.)
42.87% Jim Rappaport (R)
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 1996:
52.20% John Kerry (D) (inc.)
44.72% William F. Weld (R)
United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2002:
80.03% John Kerry (D) (inc.)
18.43% Michael Cloud (LBT)
United States Senate general election in Massachusetts, 2008:
65.82% John Kerry (D) (inc.)
30.99% Jeff Beatty (R)
I don't know. If I'm Blanche and all my dreams are of simply being Senator in my home state, I'd be perfectly happy to be John Kerry. He's coming off *by far* his best numbers ever in a Senate campaign against a GOP'er.
And before people think Obama pulled Kerry up in 2008 in the state:
61.80% Barack Obama (D)
35.99% John McCain (R)
I think an argument can be made that Obama *helped*, but one would need to layout the data on how. It's as clear that Kerry's support this time around was rather strong, even after his failure in 2004.
Blanche really should move to the solid Dem, and rather than "deal" on healthcare by watering it down further, deal that her vote gets major Stimulous money (rather than tax cuts) into her state in a new Stim package. Frankly take the lead on it.
John
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
November 9, 2009 5:31 PM in reply to tosh
That brilliant speech Kerry gave at the Democratic convention was his Senate stump speech. You may not have seen it because the Cable Asshats on most channels thought their blathering was more important than a speech by the party's last nominee for president. But that speech was like a flamethrower. Woe unto the nonentity running against him if he tried the patriotism attack.
But Kerry killed with that speech in 2008 because he recognized the basic flaw of his 2004 campaign (*cough*bob shrum*cough): you have to own your party's agenda. Running from it makes you look weak and loathesome. Kerry 2004 is precisely what's going to happen to Blanche if she tries to triangulate and be cautious and do anything other than own the party's agenda. Own it Blanche. Make it yours. Just grow a pair, for God's sake and own it.
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stillidealistic
November 9, 2009 6:37 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Great advice...
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USgreentech
November 9, 2009 9:55 PM
That is not possible. It's a joke.
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sommers
November 10, 2009 4:52 AM
She's a Democrat, why should she worry about what Republicans think or say ? Can't she just vote her conscience ? Vote what she thinks is good for the country ? She's either for government run healthcare or she's not. Vote that way, then prepare to take the consequences.
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